Ping
Thank you for the ping.
In the international arena, I do run into numbers dropping
from time to time. I’ve seen France do it, and I’ve seen
Ethiopia do it. (believe it was Ethiopia)
The numbers do go down. I haven’t done a study to see how
many times this takes place. It may not be much more than
this, but again, it has happened.
For several weeks now I have been suggesting folks should
take a look at the CDC Provisional work-up. In it they
check out the death certificates and adjust the numbers
downward.
When people were at their zenith of talking down Chinese
numbers, I mentioned that they weren’t going to be very
happy with our own numbers, take heed. Here we are and
folks are upset that the numbers are not rock solid.
These are clerical errors. A method hasn’t been devised
to make adjustments down. (evidently, maybe they do and
we don’t realize it.
I do know that when France was chopping off thousands
from it’s count, those declining numbers were washed out
by massive new cases.
The same sort of thing could be happening here. I honestly
don’t know.
Isn’t it interesting that when we compare today’s numbers
to the situation with SARs, we act as if those cases are
solid. I’m sure they were obtained by the same methods we
see now.
I do not think the numbers approaching 100,000 are accurate.
I just don’t know what to do about it. I can’t run all
over the internet trying to quantify batches of numbers all
day.
I get the impressing that folks are watching the talk of
accuracy and things like these case count reductions. I
think they are aware at least some cases were over counted
improperly.
The problem is, I read stories like these, yet I have no
idea how factual they are either.
The numbers I post are simply a number that has been
assigned. As we read of problems, we can base our grasp
of what is taking place by subtracting in our minds some
quantity from the numbers at JHU or WoM.
We’ll never have a 100% accurate number. I doubt we ever
have had one going back to other infections.
Humans screw up. Who knew?