Debiasing The Polls

Vanity ^ | 9/23 | BigEdLB

[BigEdLB]

							325	213
Adjusted polling
	EV	P	Wgt	Ratio	Trump	Biden	T	B
Alabama	9	3	0.374	1.588	59.5	37.5	9
Alaska	3	3	0.275	1.302	54.9	42.1	3
Arizona	11	26	7.273	1.104	50.9	46.1	11
Arkansas	6						6
California	55	2	0.661	0.600	36.4	60.6		55
Colorado	9	3	0.536	1.013	48.8	48.2	9
Connecticut	7							7
Delaware	3	1	0.194	0.769	42.2	54.8		3
District of Columbia	3							3
Florida	29	26	7.867	1.154	52.0	45.0	29
Georgia	16	13	4.026	1.228	53.5	43.5	16
Hawaii	4	1	0.125	0.624	37.3	59.7		4
Idaho	4	1	0.304	2.126	66.0	31.0	4
Illinois	20							20
Indiana	11	1	0.368	1.637	60.2	36.8	11
Iowa	6	4	1.195	1.209	53.1	43.9	6
Kansas	6	1	0.143	1.411	56.8	40.2	6
Kentucky	8	4	0.807	1.783	62.1	34.9	8
Louisiana	8	1	0.189	1.712	61.2	35.8	8
Maine	2	8	2.444	0.872	45.2	51.8		2
Maine CD1	1	6	1.757	0.697	39.9	57.1		1
Maine CD2	1	6	2.238	1.124	51.3	45.7	1
Maryland	10							10
Massachusetts	11	5	0.711	0.525	33.4	63.6		11
Michigan	16	26	6.549	1.048	49.6	47.4	16
Minnesota	10	12	3.121	0.987	48.2	48.8		10
Mississippi	6						6
Missouri	10	3	1.188	1.420	56.9	40.1	10
Montana	3	3	1.404	1.415	56.8	40.2	3
Nebraska	4	1	0.100	1.257	54.0	43.0	4
Nebraska CD2	1	2	0.580	1.057	49.9	47.1	1
Nevada	6	1	0.389	1.100	50.8	46.2	6
New Hampshire	4	4	0.773	1.040	49.5	47.5	4
New Jersey	14	2	0.406	0.821	43.7	53.3		14
New Mexico	5	1	0.292	0.870	45.1	51.9		5
New York	29	1	0.194	0.612	36.8	60.2		29
North Carolina	15	34	8.990	1.176	52.4	44.6	15
North Dakota	3						3
Ohio	18	7	0.932	1.138	51.6	45.4	18
Oklahoma	7	1	0.333	2.065	65.4	31.6	7
Oregon	7	1	0.368	0.921	46.5	50.5		7
Pennsylvania	20	29	6.370	1.094	50.7	46.3	20
Rhode Island	4							4
South Carolina	9	5	0.914	1.358	55.9	41.1	9
South Dakota	3						3
Tennessee	11						11
Texas	38	9	1.725	1.269	54.3	42.7	38
Utah	6	2	0.668	1.847	62.9	34.1	6
Vermont	3	1	0.875	0.688	39.6	57.4		3
Virginia	13	3	0.409	0.914	46.3	50.7		13
Washington	12	2	0.207	0.544	34.2	62.8		12
West Virginia	5						5
Wisconsin	10	29	7.296	1.047	49.6	47.4	10
Wyoming	3						3

[BigEdLB]

I went through the polls back to July 4, and made a chart. The polls are weighted based on age. Using Scott Rasmussen's comment that 17% of Trump voters will not say they are for Trump, I ran the numbers, and they came very close to the 2016. Except MN is minuscule for Biden, and NH goes to Trump. The P Column is number of polls since July 4. Where there are no polls I used the 2016 result.

[ReelectTrump2020]

Is the 17% reliable? I know there is some % but not sure how much. I’ve heard some pollsters suggest 3% which makes 17% seem awfully high. Though, I also think 3% is too low; I know A LOT of Trump supporters who don’t publicly admit they are because IDK, they don’t want to lose their job, have their house torched, have their business destroyed, be defamed online, etc.

[ReelectTrump2020]

It also doesn’t factor in the Dem fraud % which, with states increasingly holding that mail in ballots don’t even need to be sent the day of an election, sadly keeps going up and up

[dp0622]

Going to be a crazy month. Somebody wake me up on November 4th. Hopefully we will know the winner by then.

I thought the number of people who wouldn’t admit they are voting for Trump would be down a lot from the first election. I hope very much I am wrong.

When it was early on after the primaries and Trump had won I took an online survey and they asked me if I was voting for Trump and I said no. He was a fellow New Yorker and worked up the block from me.

I met him once and shake his hand and he was very nice.

I don’t know why I said no.

Of course that was the last time.

Amazing how the brain works.

Peer pressure at 48 :-)

And it was online and anonymous. so there still may be a lot of people out there who are voting for him but will lie.

[Arones]

[over3Owithabrain]

Thank you. The original chart looked like shit

[BigEdLB]

Trump will win the popular vote by about 1 million largely because of the increased black support. Also - expect Minnesota to come to the Trump column by election day

[BigEdLB]

Thank you for your support

[Magnum44]

I like your confidence.

[BigEdLB]

So the rude among us will be happier. Also included pop vote

[nikos1121]

I think these polls look pretty good for us. I think they’re accurate.

I also think these reflect the very BEST Biden can do.

I don’t see how he captures additional voters.

[Paradox]

I recall we did this back in 2008, and most here were so sure we would win.

[BigEdLB]

Trump is not McCain

[enumerated]

“Trump is not Trump is not McCain”

And Biden not Obama

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Warm thanks for posting your poll/election results. I’ve been pulling my hairs out trying to find ANY (current) polling results on the 2020 Presidential Election (other than Rasmussen, which, I believe, is very accurate). How did you come with the (projected) vote totals - based on the 2016 election and trends? Was wondering....

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Also, if you have a source/link for the poll results (with your kind permission) I’d like to share the poll on several conservative websites. Thanks in advance (if possible).

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Could you elaborate on what the red numbers indicate? Unknown? Toss-ups? Other?

[BigEdLB]

Red numbers are in states without polling

[BigEdLB]

I use RCP Polls and add polls where i can fond them - 538, etc. THen I apply the Rasmussen correct the bias, which covers a net of between 8-9%

[Luke21]

Good job with this. Thank you.