Posted on 10/09/2020 8:46:32 AM PDT by Roman_War_Criminal
As we reach a total of about 1200 quakes in the last week, the swarm’s activity continues to wane.
There has only been one quake over the last 24 hours that was felt – a M3.0 at 1:50am. 21 others were recorded but were too small to be felt. The chances of larger earthquakes in the area are almost back to background levels
The USGS has issued their seventh statement and forecast for this swarm. Here’s part of today’s statement:
“The following three scenarios describe possibilities of what could happen from 6 October to 13 October. Only one of these scenarios will occur within the next week. These scenarios include the possibility of earthquakes on and off the Imperial and San Andreas Faults.
1. Scenario One (Most likely: 99%): Earthquakes continue, possibly including earthquakes up to magnitude 5.4 The most likely scenario is that the rate of earthquakes in the swarm will decrease over the next 7 days.
Some additional moderately sized earthquakes (M4.5 to 5.4) may occur, which could cause localized damage, particularly in weak structures. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M3.0+) may be felt by people close to the epicenters.
2. Scenario Two (Less likely: 1%): A larger earthquake (magnitude 5.5 to 6.9) could occur within the next 7 days A less likely scenario is that a somewhat larger earthquake could occur (up to a M6.9).
Earthquakes of this size could cause damage around the area close to the earthquakes that have already occurred and would be followed by aftershocks that would increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day.
This scenario occurred in a previous swarm in the area – in 1981, when a swarm in this region included a magnitude 5.8 earthquake.
3. Scenario Three (Least Likely: approximately 1 in 2500): A much larger earthquake (magnitude 7 or higher) could occur within the next 7 days A much less likely scenario, compared with the previous two scenarios, is that the ongoing swarm could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M4.9 that occurred on the 30 September (i.e., M7.0 and above).
While this is a very small probability, if such an earthquake were to occur, it would have serious impacts on communities nearby and would be followed by aftershocks that would increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day.”
A few days ago, the same USGS said the probability for a big quake in the region was 1:300…
The beach ball focal mechanism analysis on the latest quake indicates strike slip movement. A big quake will be a fun ride to the north if you are on the west side of the fault.
Or, is it a guess from the Jefferson Middle School 6th grade science class?
Are you suggesting 6th graders run the USGS? LOL
"Middle Schooler Becomes Youngest Person to Achieve Nuclear Fusion"
https://interestingengineering.com/middle-schooler-becomes-youngest-person-to-achieve-nuclear-fusion?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Article&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=Oct08
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