GOP Delegate Projection

[GLDNGUN]

Survey says...

[GLDNGUN]

I decided to do some hard-core spreadsheet number crunching to see just how the rest of the GOP primary race is shaping up. A lot of pundits have said Donald Trump will have a hard time hitting the magic number of delegates prior to the convention which would lead to an open convention where anything is possible. They estimate he needs to win about 60% of the remaining delegates and since he hasn't won 60% of the delegates so far, they don't see how he does it.

This is actually very misleading for several reasons.

#1 - In EVERY prior state primary/caucus we've had 4 or more candidates on the ballot. Now we are down to 3. A FAIR comparison would be to compare how the remaining 3 candidates did against each other, not against the entire field in each election.

#2 - A couple of races have skewed the results due to "home state advantage". Kasich had a big win in Ohio, but that is his only win. Cruz had a big win in Texas. Unfortunately for those 2 candidates there are no more Ohio or Texas states coming up. We haven't even got to Trump's home state of New York, and we see how well he did in his 2nd home state (Florida). In fact, he knocked out both of Florida's "favorite sons" (Bush & Rubio). So a FAIR projection going forward would NOT include the results of Ohio and Texas.

#3 - The types of primaries coming up are dramatically in Trump's favor.

So, if we compare these 3 remaining candidates and how they have done head to head to head in the various types of (non-home state) primaries and caucuses, and then project how they will do in the remaining races, we should get a much more clear picture of what really lies ahead.

Ted Cruz has done best in "closed caucus" states. In fact, head to head to head vs. Trump & Kasich, Cruz has won 50% of those delegates, while Trump has won 40% and Kasich just 10%. Unfortunately for Cruz, only about 9% of the remaining delegates will be determined by closed caucuses.

About 36% of the remaining delegates will be in "open primary" races. In prior (non-home state) races Trump has taken about 68% of the delegates relative to 25% for Cruz and 7% for Kasich.

Ted Cruz has tried to sound optimistic about the upcoming races and how the "closed" races favor him. Indeed they have for the caucuses but not so much for the closed (non-home state) primaries. About 55% of the remaining delegates will come from closed primary races, and relative to each other in non-home state races, Donald Trump has taken 72% of the delegates, while Cruz has won 23% and Kasich 5%.

Overall, this means that Trump projects to win about 67% of the remaining delegates, while Cruz would win about 26%, and Kasich 7%. This would easily give Trump the nomination. If you use the NY Times Delegate Tool and set these %s to the respective candidates for the remaining races, you will see that Donald Trump will be just under the 1,237 delegates needed to win after the Washington caucus on 5/24/16. There are still 5 states to go after that, including winner-take-all California.

[Utmost Certainty]

According to this—assuming I’m reading it correctly—Trump need only win 42% of the remaining delegates:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/16/upshot/trump-cruz-kasich-republican-delegate-lead.html

[CA Conservative]

According to this—assuming I’m reading it correctly—Trump need only win 42% of the remaining delegates:

No, he needs to win about 66% of the remaining unpledged delegates to clinch the nomination.

[wiseprince]

They think Trump will get to nthe convention with 1150 delegates and won’t be able to a hundred converts? Just pay $50,000 to 100 delegates and he’ll still be under budget

[bigbob]

That’s a great tool for playing “what if” wiht. But the sliders represent the average percent of vote that the candidate has been receiving thus far. So if Trump continues to get 42% you see that he reaches the 1237. Play with the sliders to see the effect of winning more or less.

[ifinnegan]

It’s close.

I came up with Trump having maybe 1000-1100 going in to the last day June 7 when there are 303 left.

[TTFlyer]

What did Cruz get in Florida, 17%? He will be lucky to get that percentage of the vote in the Northeast, California, and the Northwest. Trump’s gonna be the nominee unless the oligarchs pull a stunt at the convention.

Then it won’t matter because the Rep Party will cease to exist along with the republic not long after.

[MissH]

You can bet if it comes down to California to put Trump over the 1237 there will be an all out war lead by the GOPe to keep that from happening. I would expect every dirty trick in the book from them.

[Utmost Certainty]

Nah, Trump has 694 delegates

To reach 1237, Trump only needs 52% of the remaining 1040 delegates.

Some contests will be WTA as well. So long as Trump wins by the margins he’s already been winning, he will attain a comfortable majority of the delegates.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

I came up with 40% earlier just off the top of my head.

[Fast Ed97]

I don’t know. According to Cruz fans here, in a one on one race- Cruz will take states like New York, PA, NJ, CT, Wisconsin, California etc...

Just wait and see

[CA Conservative]

Nah, Trump has 694 delegates

Depends upon which site you check. But there are not 1040 delegates left. If you look at each state that has already voted and add up the delegates available, you get 1489 already allocated, leaving 983 delegate, of which 128 will be unpledged delegates. That only leaves 855 pledged delegates available. So even using your number of 694 delegates, that means Trump needs 543 delegates. 543/855= 63.5%, not 52%.

[Utmost Certainty]

Yeah, it’s at least 42% of the raw vote Trump will need.

But he’ll need 52% of the remaining delegates (Trump has 694, 1040 remain, he needs 543 of these to reach 1237).

This thing is over.

[GLDNGUN]

You can bet if it comes down to California to put Trump over the 1237 there will be an all out war lead by the GOPe to keep that from happening. I would expect every dirty trick in the book from them.

I was just thinking the same thing. If he HAS to have CA to clinch, it will be 24/7 attack attack attack.

[Flick Lives]

We’re the math gets confusing is a fairly low percentage win in *votes* can translate to a very large win in *delegates*, depending on how delegates are apportioned, look at Missouri or Illinois as examples of this. These are not winner take all, but effectively winner take all at a district level.

[weston]

Thank You for your research. Hope you are right!

[weston]

Are they able to pay delegates? If they are Trump wins this thing for sure!

[Utmost Certainty]

The 694 Trump delegate number I got from the NYT delegate tracker linked upthread.

The 1040 remaining delegates number I got from here: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker

This lists Trump @ 673. But it doesn’t factor in all of MO, which according to provisional results should net another +12 to Trump, placing him at least 685. I’m not sure where NYT pulls the other +9 from, but that doesn’t change the arithmetic much.

[Pelham]

“To reach 1237, Trump only needs 52% of the remaining 1040 delegates.”

52% sounds like the number that I’ve heard GOPe insiders touting. They don’t think that Trump can get it, but then they are hoping that he won’t.

[kvanbrunt2]

I don’t know. According to Cruz fans here, in a one on one race- Cruz will take states like New York, PA, NJ, CT, Wisconsin, California etc...

Just wait and see>>lol cruz is way behind in pa, rubio is ahead of cruz and i don’t think rubio’s go to cruz just sayin