According to this—assuming I’m reading it correctly—Trump need only win 42% of the remaining delegates:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/16/upshot/trump-cruz-kasich-republican-delegate-lead.html
No, he needs to win about 66% of the remaining unpledged delegates to clinch the nomination.
That’s a great tool for playing “what if” wiht. But the sliders represent the average percent of vote that the candidate has been receiving thus far. So if Trump continues to get 42% you see that he reaches the 1237. Play with the sliders to see the effect of winning more or less.
It’s close.
I came up with Trump having maybe 1000-1100 going in to the last day June 7 when there are 303 left.
What did Cruz get in Florida, 17%? He will be lucky to get that percentage of the vote in the Northeast, California, and the Northwest. Trump’s gonna be the nominee unless the oligarchs pull a stunt at the convention.
Then it won’t matter because the Rep Party will cease to exist along with the republic not long after.
I came up with 40% earlier just off the top of my head.