It still amazes me how badly they screwed that. Well actually, considering the religious fantasism of the Japanese armed forces, they seriously thought they were divinely invincible.
They could have bypassed the Philippines, took the Dutch East Indies from bases in Indochina, guaranteed safe passage for all American ships to keep us at bay, and bought themselves 3 years
There's a website called combinedfleet.com that tracks Japanese and US production of carriers in WW2.
Even if Japan had utilized this strategy, the economic potential of the US was so much more than Japan and Germany, we'd eventually won through sheer numbers.
Plus...the Manhattan Project.