Impact of asteroid that will approach Earth in 2029 'CANNOT be ruled out' [but pretty much no]

Express UK ^ | Tuesday, June 27, 2017 | Sean Martin

[SunkenCiv]

Astronomers have calculated the Apophis asteroid will speed past Earth on April 13, 2029, at just 18,600 miles away -- a hair's width in astronomical terms. To put that into perspective, the moon is 238,900 miles away...

If the 27 billion kg asteroid were to hit Earth, scientists calculate that it would leave a crater over a mile wide and a staggering 518 metres deep.

However, most worryingly, the impact would be equivalent to 880 million tons of TNT being detonated -- some 65,000 times as powerful as the nuclear bomb which was dropped on Hiroshima.

The next time the asteroid is set to pass Earth after 2029 is 2036...

However, Alan Harris, a former NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), says Apophis has a negative "Palermo Scale" -- a negative Palermo Scale indicates less of an impact risk with asteroids.

There are Millions of Asteroids in the solar system, usually found in the Asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, however those in that pass the Earth are called Near-Earth objects

Mr Harris said: "Apophis has a Palermo Scale rating of about minus three, so while we cannot rule out an impact in the future, it is about 1,000 times less likely than a random impact in the same interval of time.

"Due to a close but non-impacting pass by the Earth, there are numerous possible impact trajectories beyond that, but all are of very low probability."

[SunkenCiv]

Using Herschel data, mission scientists have deduced that Apophis is 1,066 feet (325 meters) wide. That’s 20 percent larger than the previous estimate of 885 feet (270 meters). “The 20 percent increase in diameter, from 270 to 325 m, translates into a 75 percent increase in our estimates of the asteroid’s volume or mass,” said Thomas Müller of the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Garching, Germany, and lead scientist of the study.

[Asteroid Apophis Just Got Supersized | 02/09/2014 | SunkenCiv]

[rfp1234]

We just need to make sure no doomsday cult with a missile tries to blow it up, or deflect it so it does hit Earth.

[tomkat]

I'll be long gone by then, but the rest of y'all best duck/cover   :-)

[dragnet2]

Scary close.

[SunkenCiv]

These are the topics added to the Catastrophism keyword in the past year or so:

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• Study of Uranus Suggests Some of its Moons are on a Collision Course [2018]
• A massive object devastated Uranus a long time ago and it never fully recovered [2018]
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• Saturn Moon Enceladus Is First Alien 'Water World' with Complex Organics [2018]
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• Interstellar asteroid update [guess]: It's a comet! [2018]
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• A Giant Blob of Hot Rock Is Building Up Under America's Northeast [2018]
• NASA now has an official plan for taking out asteroids [2018]
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• Researchers observe the first known interstellar comet [2017]
• Bus-sized Asteroid heading for Earth TODAY after string of near-miss encounters [2017]
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• Watch Asteroid 3122 Florence Zip Past Earth This Weekend [2017]
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• New Impact Flash Seen on Jupiter [2017]
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• A Massive Lake of Molten Carbon The Size of Mexico is Discovered Under The US [2017]
• Wrong-Way, Daredevil Asteroid Plays 'Chicken' with Jupiter [2017]
• Northern Hemisphere Potentially In Great Danger, Fukushima Radiation Spikes To 'Unimaginable' Levels [2017]
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• A supervolcano caused the largest eruption in European history. Now it's stirring again. [2016]
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• Asteroid strike made 'instant Himalayas' [2016]
• Lifting the veil on Queen of Sheba's perfume [2016]
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• Why is Uranus on its Side? [2016]
• Rites of the Scythians [2016]
• Massive 'Lava Lamp' Blobs Deep Inside Earth Have Scientists Puzzled [2016]
• Warming pulses in ancient climate record link volcanoes, asteroid impact and dinosaur-killing... [2016]
• Red Planet Impact: Huge Moons May Have Crashed Into Mars [2016]
• Were Hebrews Ever Slaves in Ancient Egypt? Yes [2016]
• Curiosity Finds Ancient Mars Likely Had More Oxygen and Was More Hospitable to Life [2016]
• Why the sun going blank means a 'Game of Thrones'-like winter is coming [2016]
• Hubble boffins: Incredibly old supernova could explain EVERYTHING [2013]
• Medieval plague victims unearthed in City of London square [2013]
• Bust of Memnon: Images of Blacks in Ancient Greece [2013]
• Astronomy Picture of the Day -- Saturn: Bright Tethys and Ancient Rings [2012]
• The Netherlands: Archaeologists Find Habitation Sites in Port of Rotterdam [2011]
• The Lost City: A discovery in the desert could rewrite the history of ancient Egypt [2010]
• Creating Elements after BB: Where did the Supernova's Go?(Vanity) [2007]
• Dramatic shift from simple to complex marine ecosystems occurred 250M years ago at mass extinction [2006]
• Worship Of Phoenix May Have Started 7,400 Years Ago In Central China [2006]
• Seismic Activity in Country's Center Sparks Debate [2005]
• Tomb May Shed Light On 10th Plague [2004]
• Did Noah Go Through Flood in Wooden Submarine? [2003]
• Gravity variations predict earthquake behavior [2003]
• 'Potato' Earth's Deep Secrets (Gravity Map) [2003]
• Unearthed: the humble origins of world diplomacy (A Preserved Library from 1340BC discovered!) [2003]
• Making Waves Over Noah's Flood (Black Sea) [2003]
• Dig Unearths Mycenaean 'Homeric Capital' [2002]
• Staff of Moses 'found' in Birmingham [2002]
• cont'd

[SunkenCiv]

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[BBell]

Tin foil hat and Slim Whitman time?

[allendale]

If one were really thought likely to hit earth, how long would it take to design and construct the necessary space technology to destroy or deflect it? Would that be possible? anyone have an opinion?

[dragnet2]

About 1/4 mile wide would be a cataclysmic impact.

[SunkenCiv]

Getting something (bomb or big propulsion system) up there on short notice would be feasible, now that we have SpaceX. The likelihood of zero warming though -- in the words of David Morrison, the first notice we receive is a tongue of fire on the horizon, followed by shock waves, etc -- is still highest. Detection is obviously most important. This is just one we know about.

[MeganC]

“If the 27 billion kg asteroid were to hit Earth, scientists calculate that it would leave a crater over a mile wide and a staggering 518 metres deep.”

Okay. So how do we make sure it hits Mecca?

[NorseWood]

Could we deflect it towards San Francisco?

[Red Badger]

If the Good Lord sees fit, I’ll be 74 then, so I might get to see it...........unless it’s cloudy...............

[Red Badger]

We could do it in 6 months................

[bgill]

One landed in the ocean this week.

[kosciusko51]

Given that it is 27 billion kg (roughly 60 billion pounds), and would create a 880 megaton blast, it is carrying a lot of energy to deflect. The best you could is fire some nuclear warheads to fracture the thing into some smaller pieces, but even that would be problematic.

[Huskrrrr]

“Mr. Douglas, could I interest you in some Gen-U-whine Asteroid insurance?”

Mr. Haney

[fruser1]

Good timing.

This’ll hit just about when they implement means testing for Social Security.

[DoodleBob]

The Palermo Scale is common in approach to the Torino Scale, which I believe provides a better visual approach to seeing where the NEOs plot out:

Apophis has a potential y-axis value of 880. If the average chance of an asteroid impact is 1 in 40,000 and if Apophis' probability is 1000x less than the average, this NEO has an x-axis value of 10 ^-8.

We're easily in the white / 0 zone. Stand down.

[SuperLuminal]

"... how long would it take to design and construct the necessary space technology to destroy or deflect it?"

Just the environmental impact statements would take 5-to-10 years...Then add another 10-years for constructing and testing...

On FR I stated, 13-years ago, that the government was probably lying through their teeth about the size and impact probability...They haven't changed a bit...