Posted on 08/02/2018 8:47:52 AM PDT by SMGFan
Democrats face a difficult map but stand to benefit from being the non-presidential party
— From 1914 to 2016, presidential cycles featured a higher rate of straight-ticket outcomes than midterm elections, with 74% of presidential-Senate results going for the same party in presidential years. Midterm cycles showed more splits, with just 61% of presidential-Senate results won by the same party. In 21 of 25 midterm cycles that followed a presidential election in the 1913-2016 period, the share of split-ticket presidential-Senate results increased compared to the share in the previous presidential cycle.
— In 2018, the Democratic caucus is defending 26 of the 36 seats (72%) that will contested this cycle, the most for any party in the post-World War II period. That figure includes the Alabama special election in 2017 as a seat for the GOP to defend, which it remarkably failed to do. Democrats are defending more seats than any non-presidential party in previous midterm elections. Of those seats, just over half (14) are in states that leaned toward the Democrats in the 2016 presidential election while 12 are in states that leaned toward the GOP in 2016, including 10 in states that Trump carried.
— Conversely, 2018 Republicans are tied with the 1970 GOP for the fewest seats a presidential party has had to defend (10) in a midterm cycle in the era of popular elections. If we exclude the Alabama race from the defense count for the entire cycle, this year’s GOP is actually defending the fewest seats at the time of the regular midterm election of any presidential party. And almost all of those seats are in Republican-leaning states, meaning that there are only a few GOP-held Senate seats that Democrats can realistically target.
This is the basis for November predictions we may not like.
Past Performance Is Not Indicative Of Future Results ..................Your mileage may vary..................
If the country votes to flip congress, they get what they deserve.
We shall see.
Personally, I hope we are in the midst of a fundamental transformation and that the past is no longer a good predictor of the future — unless you go all the way back to the 18th century.
It seems to me that this article hardly supports a Blue wave. In fact quite the opposite.
Sabato is an idiot. Period.
Pres. Trump has changed the rules.
In fact, with patriots putting their voting muscle behind Pres. Trump, 17th Amendment will hopefully backfire in the faces of progressives in 2018 midterm elections.
I said if Hillary won the country was done. Trump won and gave me hope. Now, if the Dems win the house the country is done.
If you browse around at state data, it would appear four absolute gains, maintaining AZ and Tenn, and maybe two wild races (Tammy Baldwin in Wis and Joe Manchin in WV).
..................Your mileage may vary..................
Precisely!!!
This is worrisome. Oh, wait. It’s Larry Sabato. Never mind.
Larry’s final prediction for 2016:
Hillary Clinton: 322 electoral votes
Donald Trump: 216 electoral votes
this was analysis of Senate elections since 1913. Not predicting 2018. But you can see what historic info is used to predict this year.
Haven’t past off year Senate predictions been accurate?
Sabotage’s Crystal Ball is as accurate as my Magic 8 Ball... Matter of fact my 8 Ball predicted Trump winning the election. I asked it if Hillary will lose it answered ‘Yes’.
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