Posted on 10/05/2019 12:05:15 PM PDT by DoodleBob
SENDING messages into deep space could be the best way for Earthlings to find extraterrestrial intelligence, but it carries a grave risk: alerting hostile aliens to our presence. Game theory may provide a way to navigate this dilemma.
So far the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) has mostly been restricted to listening for signs of technology elsewhere. Only a few attempts have been made to broadcast messages towards distant stars. Many scientists are against such active SETI for fear of revealing our presence. If all aliens feel the same way then no one will be broadcasting, and the chance of detecting each other is limited.
To weigh up the potential losses and gains, Harold de Vladar of the Institute of Science and Technology Austria in Klosterneuburg turned to the prisoners dilemma, a game-theory problem in which two prisoners choose between admitting their shared crime or keeping quiet, with different sentences depending on what they say. An individual prisoner gets off scot free if they rat on a partner who remains silent, with the silent partner getting a maximum sentence. If they both rat on each other, each gets a medium sentence. By contrast, if both stay silent, both get token sentences the best overall result.
De Vladar reasoned that the SETI dilemma is essentially the same, but reversed. Mutual silence for prisoners is equivalent to mutual broadcasting for aliens, giving the best results for both civilisations. And while a selfish prisoner rats, a selfish civilisation is silent, waiting for someone else to take the risk of waving Over here! at the rest of the universe.
(Excerpt) Read more at newscientist.com ...
Effectively, the results of the choice/game to try or not try to contact extraterrestrials,as set up in this paper, argue in favor of sending out messages to extraterrestrials even if we're afraid of a Wellsian, science fiction situation...where there is a notable penalty as a consequence of bidirectional broadcasting, for example, because of the possibility of being exploited, attacked, enslaved etc.
The very fact that Earthlings ARE sending such signals means that NASA et al have already decided that this situation is worth the risk.
Discuss.
I wonder how the Dems would spin contact to destroy us.
AOC is a space alien. She wants to protect her illegal brethren
With a fine Chianti and fava beans.
Even if they knew we were here I dont think theyd be able to do anything about it. People do not appreciate how far away theyd be. Even the closest star is 4.5 light years away. No way could they traverse that. Or would they. And its very unlikely that theyd be that close.
Any attack would be casual. Not direct, since a direct attack (fleets of ships etc) would revel the attacker and thus the attacker’s home world to others.
Penalty is always death, and that death would mean being sure the attack was successful: such as a light-speed, hyper-dense object striking the sun causing a nova, a dimensional strike reducing the solar system by one dimension, a strike that changes the local physics and so on, as a failed strike would reveal the attacker.
We have enough problems here already without bringing more from outer space.
I had an entirely new perception of AOC recently. When I looked at her without emotion I saw a demonic presence. Think about her emotional life. She is ice cold with a big smile. Her nod of approval at the idea presented to her for a modest proposal was a perfect illustration of her Machiavellian spirit.
In Carl Sagans book _Contact,_ he points out that weve been broadcasting television signals into the cosmos since the 30s. Its only gotten worse since.
In that time, weve not been visited by beings with faster-than-light shipsthat were aware of. If thats the case, we can pretty much know that nothing travels faster than the speed of light and were relatively safe from beings that are centuries distant. We could broadcast for a long time (in human-years) and never worry about a visitation. Not having found any evidence of visitors on the nearby planets (yet) reinforces the idea that there are none around for perhaps hundreds or thousands of light-years.
On the other hand, if we have been visited by beings with advanced technologies that allow FTL travel, then they know about earth and its inhabitants and where we are in our development. We couldnt hide it so broadcasting (or not) wont change anything. They likely control the local planets and stars wed one day get around to exploring and maybe thats when formal contact would be made.
Any civilization not worth contacting is worth eliminating: resource consumption plus a breakthrough could happen at any time changing the balance. Strike while they are stupid, blind and powerless.
If a civilization is intelligent enough to create camouflage masking its existence, you would not find it before it found you. Just the act of searching would reveal your existence which is why navy ships use passive radar and sonar.
And its very unlikely that theyd be that close.
Are you sure?
Three unexplained extra-solar objects have already passed through out solar system ...
Do you really believe that if a civilization did exist out there that they had a 100,000 year lead over us on the technology curve that they would be worried about a mere 4.5 light years?
In that time, weve not been visited by beings with faster-than-light shipsthat were aware of. If thats the case, we can pretty much know that nothing travels faster than the speed of light and were relatively safe from beings that are centuries distant.
Note I said “without hostile intentions”.
I understand it is hard to imagine alien civilizations that have no interest in eliminating others, but they are “alien”, and if they have serious high tech they could (among other things) simulate the natives so they could infiltrate at will without giving away their presence.
Terence McKenna has some fascinating “scenarios” that he discusses.
The best disguise would be as a non-intelligent species that could monitor activity and report periodically (simulating natural phenomenon for communication).
Sun Tzu (The Art of War) is full of ideas on how to carry out a long term strategy (that could really be used for peaceful or warlike purposes).
One final thought—are we really worried about dolphins or apes developing into dangerous enemies? If so, why would highly advanced aliens have such fears about us?
Rocks like Ohmomma have probably been spinning in and oit the somar system for billions of years. What’s to explain?
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