New Chinese Virus 'Will Have Infected Hundreds'

BBC ^ | January 17, 2020 | James Gallagher

[nickcarraway]

The number of people already infected by the mystery virus emerging in China is far greater than official figures suggest, scientists have told the BBC.

There have been 45 laboratory-confirmed cases of the new virus, but UK experts estimate the figure is closer to 1,700.

Two people are known to have died from the virus, which appeared in Wuhan city in December.

"I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago," disease outbreak scientist, Prof Neil Ferguson, said.

The work was conducted by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, which advises bodies including the UK government and the World Health Organization.

'Sars-family' virus claims second victim in China Mystery Chinese virus: How worried should we be? Singapore and Hong Kong have been screening air passengers from Wuhan and US authorities announced similar measures starting on Friday at three major airports in San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York.

How were the numbers calculated? The crucial clue to the scale of the problem lies in the cases being detected in other countries.

While the outbreak is centred on Wuhan, there have been two cases in Thailand and one in Japan.

"That caused me to worry," said Prof Ferguson.

He added: "For Wuhan to have exported three cases to other countries would imply there would have to be many more cases than have been reported."

It is impossible to get the precise number, but outbreak modelling, which is based on the virus, the local population and flight data, can give an idea.

Wuhan International Airport serves a population of 19 million people, but only 3,400 a day travel internationally.

[Jeff Chandler]

Ah crap.

[DrewsMum]

Yep. It’s about time for another bird flu type scare.

The media goes apoplectic over this crap and people panic..

[JoSixChip]

I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago

Me too!

[FreeperCell]

Will only affect liberals.

[Telepathic Intruder]

The really bad ones always come from China.

[oldasrocks]

Do a Search for Pollution/ china and read a few articles. You will understand why all the new diseases start there.

Add to that the living condition of a large part of the population.

[Roman_War_Criminal]

End Times Ping

There are malaria and ebola outbreaks all over Western Africa right not - killing thousands.

Any mutated swine or bird flu can in Asia can spread worldwide in about 26 hours with our modern travel.

Scary stuff!

PM me if you wish to be added or removed.
God Bless!

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Ping !

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

***The media goes apoplectic over this crap and people panic..***

Much like the 1970s SWINE FLU EPIDEMIC which was gonna kill millions! Only ONE person caught it.

[tired&retired]

I’m in Bangkok right now, headed to Northern Thailand near the China border during the Chinese New Year when many Chinese travel to Thailand.

Masks are the norm in public. Even police are wearing them.

[LucyT]

.

PING

[null and void]

Kop koon mak.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[Redcitizen]

( size of outbreak). The detailed calculations, which have been posted online ahead of publication in a scientific journal, came up with a figure of 1,700 cases.

[tired&retired]

You are welcome

[norsky]

Much like the 1970s SWINE FLU EPIDEMIC which was gonna kill millions! Only ONE person caught it.

Actually there was much more, not sure how many but we treated about 10 in our ICU. at least 2 died.
They were extremely ill.
That is why they were in the ICU.
China is the main breeding ground because of the close proximity to people and animals and the unsanitary conditions.