Image Source: Sebastiao Moreira/EPA-EFE/ShutterstockPosted on 03/28/2020 8:41:15 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
How long can the US economy remain shut down because of the coronavirus? As long as it takes, say many health experts. Until Easter, President Trump wishes. Like him, many officials around the world may be worried that strict lockdowns and quarantines will have a massive impact on the economy the longer they run. The UK famously attempted herd immunity before realizing the strategy was doomed to kill countless COVID-19 patients. It pivoted towards social distancing in an attempt to flatten the curve of the novel coronavirus.
The longer we stay indoors and avoid others, the more time we buy for those who are infected and need hospitalization. Time also works in favor of medical systems and governments that are scrambling to deal with the pandemic. More personal protective gear, more ventilators, and more tests for the novel coronavirus are needed, as well as measures to support the millions of people that lost their jobs over the past few weeks.
It turns out a test to detect the COVID-19 virus early isn’t the only one we need, though. There’s a second test that would not only signal that it’s safe to restart the economy, but would also help us to determine whether we’ll have to fight SARS-CoV-2 ever again. Tt’s also a test could save lives. It’s the immunity test.
There are two ways to become immune. One is immediate: You get infected, your body fights off the disease by itself or with the help of medical care, and you recover. Scientists have already proven that the immune system fights the virus just like the flu in mild-to-moderate cases. A different study showed that monkeys who recovered from COVID-19 will not develop the illness after coming in contact with the novel coronavirus a second time. The other method is to acquire immunity via a vaccine or a plasma transfusion from a survivor. Vaccines are at least a year out, while plasma treatments aren’t widely available for the time being.
The more people that are immune, the less likely it is for others to get infected, and the faster the economy can reopen. However, we still have no idea how long SARS-CoV-2 immunity will last. We need more time to study that aspect of COVID-19. It may be a short-lived immunity, as is the case with immunity after the flu. Or it may last for years. We just don’t know.
Therefore, the second COVID-19 test we need is a blood test that can quickly discover whether you have antibodies for the novel coronavirus. Those tests should be administered en masse in the future, to all survivors, whether they recovered at home or were assisted by medical professionals. But such tests don’t exist yet.
Serological tests looking for specific antibodies linked to coronavirus immunity are in development, and are already being deployed on a large scale in Singapore. The country is in a unique position to afford widespread COVID-19 testing as well as immunity testing. More populous countries like the US will need a larger number of tests.
Plenty of tests are already in the making, Wired reported a few days ago. But these tests need to be perfect to avoid any kind of false results.
“We’re currently looking at one assay from the US, two from Europe and two from China,” Mayo Clinic clinical microbiology director Elitza Theel said. “There’s a need for this, so once we identify one we think is suitable, we’ll begin offering the testing.” She explained these tests should only be performed on recovered patients, anywhere between 8 and 11 days after the infection, so that antibodies can be detected.
Once an immunity test is chosen and deployed, the people fighting on the front lines should be tested for immunity. “Those people could then safely perform essential functions within the community without fearing re-infection,” Harvard School of Public Health professor of epidemiology Marc Lipsitch said. “That’s the first and maybe the most important thing.”
How long the immunity will last is another question serological testing will answer. Those who were infected with SARS were immunized for 8 to 10 years. MERS survivors, however, got much shorter protection. University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston virologist Vineet D. Menachery told The New York Times that immunity to the new coronavirus may last at least one to two years. Although this is not guaranteed.
Mount Sinai Icahn School of Medicine microbiologist Florian Krammer believes that COVID-19 survivors will experience a milder secondary case in the future, even if the immunity doesn’t last long. “You probably would make a good immune response before you even become symptomatic again and might really blunt the course of the disease,” he said.
These coronavirus immunity tests may be used at home by anyone who thinks they survived a COVID-19 infection, and that would be the best use-case scenario, as long as this sort of testing is widely available. Per The New York Times, officials of Public Health England said they purchased millions of such tests and were evaluating them for use at home.
Aside from confirming immunity, the antibodies harnessed from blood donors who have recovered from COVID-19 can be used to treat existing patients. New York is the first state to attempt COVID-19 therapies using plasma from survivors. Scientists will also have to keep retesting COVID-19 immunity in some patients until a vaccine is widely available to see how long the antibodies last.
Scientists in UK were postulating that over half the population had already had CV, and that they were approaching herd immunity. But they they tested for antibioties, and only 7% had been esposed.
It’s not likely that much of the US has been exposed either, but they should still sample the population to find out our status.
I still think we could go back to work if everyone work masks and goggles. I think if we wait for herd immunity we will be waiting a long times.
Normal is no longer normal.
All so true.
We are, as a Country, WAY behind the curve.
If we could get up to speed in 2 or 3 weeks we could save ourselves.
I say test everyone.
we are already under house arrest and have spent trillions.
public deserves to know the real number and people should know if they’ve already had it. One less thing to worry about.
Do you have a link to the 7% exposed?
First I have heard of that, although I did hear the 50% model had been debunked.
I do not. I picked that 7% up from another's freeper's post. And it may not be reliable. I just googled for 'UK coronavirus exposed' and didn't find anything like that.
It could have been an imaginary number from a flubro trying to make it look like more cases are benign than we thought.
Agreed,
Normal two weeks
Ago was to buy
Ten years worth
Of Toilet Paper!
.
That really messed
with the Bell curve.
At least one test kit from CHINA has already proven faulty. Don’t buy test kits from China! Haven’t we had enough “imports” from that accursed country?
I do not. I picked that 7% up from another's freeper's post. And it may not be reliable. I just googled for 'UK coronavirus exposed' and didn't find anything like that.
It could have been an imaginary number from a flubro trying to make it look like more cases are benign than we thought.
That’s why I find Sweden’s approach so interesting. I have read that Swedes are resisting lock-down. Schools and restaurants are open, although government has banned large-gatherings.
Their experiences will be invaluable in see the true effects of coronavirus on a normally-functioning society and also, how quickly herd immunity develops. I hope their politicians and society have the strength to maintain their openness.
7% is the positive test rate of those tested for COVID in most locations (New York seems to be higher). Most of those tested have some symptoms or risk factors based on usual testing protocols. What this means is that other flu like illnesses are still in circulation (I.e. flu, colds etc).
That is not the population exposure rate - we don’t know what that is. As widespread surveillance testing or antibody testing becomes available, we should get a better idea but that is still some weeks away
I hope they have the sense not to travel or allow visitors to their country.
Why do vaccines take a year, while plasma is available almost immediately?
That is still 10,700 fewer than H1N1 deaths in 2009-2010. The caveat is that most of the deaths came in the fall-winter that year (the "2nd wave")
22,000 - 25,000 are dead from "infuenza" this year alone.
We did not wreck our economy to "save lives" for H1N1 or the flu. Why not? Is it because Trish Regan was right, and this epidemic has been massively hyped to try and hurt Trump? H1N1 was played DOWN by the media during Obama's first year. One wonders if it had hit in 2008-2009, would the media have played it UP to hurt Republicans and helped Obama's election?
In WA, 7% of those tested have been positive. Seems pretty low for a virus that is supposed to be very contagious.
It is heating up out here in the hinterlands. I figure about the time we have exhausted our supplies it will be at full tilt.
This bull crap is mostly over next week in the US
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