Skip to comments.Neil Ferguson's Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time
Posted on 05/19/2020 8:42:42 AM PDT by Beave Meister
In the history of expensive software mistakes, Mariner 1 was probably the most notorious. The unmanned spacecraft was destroyed seconds after launch from Cape Canaveral in 1962 when it veered dangerously off-course due to a line of dodgy code.
But nobody died and the only hits were to Nasas budget and pride. Imperial Colleges modelling of non-pharmaceutical interventions for Covid-19 which helped persuade the UK and other countries to bring in draconian lockdowns will supersede the failed Venus space probe and could go down in history as the most devastating software mistake of all time, in terms of economic costs and lives lost.
Since publication of Imperials microsimulation model, those of us with a professional and personal interest in software development have studied the code on which policymakers based their fateful decision to mothball our multi-trillion pound economy and plunge millions of people into poverty and hardship. And we were profoundly disturbed at what we discovered. The model appears to be totally unreliable and you...
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Poverty and hardship is all part of the plan. That is the desired outcome.
Houston, we have a problem...
Jack Ruby the fink, once he is out of England.
No paywall version, similar content:
And I thought it was going to be the Year 2000 rollover.
Records are made to be broken.
My main issue with the author’s objections to the code is that he maintains FORTRAN is “obsolete”. In many ways, those older languages are less prone to bugs in the hands of a skilled programmer than some of the newer ones, as less is happening behind the curtain.
FORTRAN is not a dominant language anymore, and neither is COBOL, and neither are obsolete, performing the same functions as before.
The language isn’t the issue. If there are errors, there are errors. If the program is poorly written, and unstructured, and therefore cannot be properly maintained, that is also another issue, but has nothing to do with the programming language, but the programmer.
This is a story of agenda-ists who used the work of snake oil salesman (and there are a lot in the computer modeling world) to push a worldwide economic shutdown to protect their global power.
This fake news does leave one opening though: if enough citizens demand that public policy can cite NO model that doesn't disclose all the raw data, cannot be replicated, and is not confirmed by an entity under the jurisdiction of the public policy owners.
* Snuck out of lockdown to have an ongoing sexual affair with a married woman;
* Infected that woman with the China Virus and did not tell her;
* That woman then unknowingly infected her husband and children
Neil Ferguson is a fake, a fraud, an adulterer and a spreader of a deadly disease and didn't even bother to tell the married woman he was having an affair with that he himself was infected.
Why in the world should ANYONE believe a thing this guy says or produces?
Niel Ferguson actually has a HISTORY of sky high death estimates.
His projections led to millions of British livestock killed due to hoof and mouth disease projections. And it turned out inspectors were spreading it through unsterilized shoes.
He predicted up to fifty thousand dead from mad cow disease.
He predicted up to 200 million dead from bird flu. Note thats worse than the Wuhan virus and they still didnt lock everything down.
That makes the hyperbolic Wuhan virus death projections his FOURTH wild projection .... used to determine policy
This presupposes the draconian prescriptions were a mistake and not advocacy. With the absence of proof of error, I lean toward advocacy.
The greatest software mistake was a file called God that took up the whole computer and then the whole universe.
Imperials model appears to be based on a programming language named Fortran, that was old information 20 years ago and, guess what, was that the code used for Mariner 1. This obsolete language includes issues that are inherent it illuminates values, which may give way to \numerous design defects and inaccuracies that are numerical. One file alone in the Imperial model contained 15,000 lines of code.
This is insane. Fortran was obsolete in the 1980’s never mind the 21st Century. And a 15,000 line (!!!) module just screams bug-ridden spaghetti code. Where in the hell did this Ferguson dig up a code monstrosity like this and decide it was ok to run?
Neil Ferguson’s Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time
I seriously question the word MISTAKE. I don’t think it was.
Neil Fergusons Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time
I seriously question the word MISTAKE. I dont think it was.
I think you’re right. This was deliberate. No one in their right mind would take an abortion like a 15,000 line fortran program and run it then panic the world over the garbage output produced by this “model”. Where the hell was the peer review of the data? Who wrote this model in the first place? When else has this model been used?
In the history of expensive software mistakes, Mariner 1 was probably the most notorious.
The word obsolete is NOT the same as the word old. Neither a 1970s TI calculator nor a slide rule is obsolete.
Sgt_Schultze wrote: “This presupposes the draconian prescriptions were a mistake and not advocacy. With the absence of proof of error, I lean toward advocacy.”
Hanlon’s razor is an aphorism “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity”.
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