Posted on 07/09/2020 11:16:52 AM PDT by Signalman
President Donald Trump is almost certain to win reelection in 2020, according to a political science professor whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite Tuesday. He noted that his model, which he introduced in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome of all but two presidential elections in the last 108 years: “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
The exceptions include John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960 and George W. Bush’s election in 2000, when Bush won a majority of the electoral college despite losing the popular vote.
Not only will Trump win, Norpoth’s model suggests, the president will expand his margin in the Electoral College from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020. That would be nearly identical to the 365 electoral votes former President Barack Obama won in 2008.
The model calculates a candidate’s chance of winning based on their success in early presidential nominating contests, putting former Vice President Joe Biden at a severe disadvantage because of crushing losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests. He won 15.8 percent of the vote in Iowa’s caucuses, where he placed fourth, and 8.4 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, placing fifth. It wasn’t until the Democratic Party’s third contest, South Carolina’s primary, that Biden began racking up victories on the way to his party’s nomination.
The only other candidate to win the Democratic nomination after losing those two critical states was Bill Clinton in 1992, and under significantly different circumstances. Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin won his state’s presidential primary that year, but fell to a fourth-place finish in New Hampshire while Clinton surged to second.
Norpoth said his model succeeds by placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, and by discounting public opinion surveys. “The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth said. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”
No getting complacent!
This is spiritual warfare!
Keep Panic till it is 100%
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Models are notoriously unreliable. Don’t agree - watch your local weather forecasts!
Model doesn’t account for Dim cheating, which will be epic.
This election will not follow any model because there will be MASSIVE mail in voter fraud by the Democrats.
Detailed Report
Factual Reporting: MIXED
Country: USA
World Press Freedom Rank: USA 45/180
History
Founded in 2009, Mediaite is a liberal news and opinion blog covering politics and entertainment in the media industry. It is the flagship blog of Abrams Media, a ring of blogs run by ABC legal analyst Dan Abrams. The primary purpose of the site is to report news from and about mainstream media sources. The managing editor is Aidan McLaughlin.
Read our profile on United States government and media.
Funded by / Ownership
Mediaite is owned by Abrams Media and generates revenue primarily through advertising.
Analysis / Bias
In review, Mediaite reports news with a left-leaning bias through both story selection and wording such as this, Trump Fumes After Watching MSNBC, Takes Aim at Parent Company: ‘Such Lies’ and Trump’s Bizarre Statement About the Moon and Mars Rockets Across Twitter. This latter story is sourced to just tweets. Sourcing, in general, seems to frequently come from social media and Youtube videos. Story selection almost always favors the left and utilizes sensational headlines that do not match the story. In general, this is a strongly left-leaning source that selects stories that favor the left and does not always source properly.
Overall, we rate Mediaite Left Biased based on story selection that almost always favors the left and Mixed for factual reporting due to misleading sensational headlines and use of poor sources. (8/21/2016) Updated (D. Van Zandt 6/8/2019)
...only if the spectre of rampant voter fraud is taken out of the picture.
Patriots must support PDJT by also electing new patriot federal and state lawmakers that will promise to fully support Trump’s already excellent work for MAGA.
What could be the motivation behind this news story? All media is an attempt to influence YOU! In this case, this is an effort at voter suppression. If Trump is going to win by such a large margin, than I don’t have to vote.
Don’t believe it - vote!
Along with the travel restrictions placed on certain states and cities by the DEMs, good luck to Trump getting his lawyers there on Election Day and after to fight the expected voter fraud battles.
Model also doesn't account for voter intimidation, which is already happening. I expected things to go quiet sometime in September, then a week or two before Election Day, all hell will break loose. Of course, the rioters will have already voted absentee, so the impact will be on Election Day voters, which tends to be more conservative.
“Not only will Trump win, Norpoth’s model suggests, the president will expand his margin in the Electoral College from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020.”
Let’s just say that 362 Electoral College votes for Trump is a gross under estimation. The Trump victory is far and wide and includes states that have not been won by a Republican since Reagan.
My brother said that reagan was going to die in office because every president who won an election on a year ending in zero died in office.
Until reagan...
The whole thing is based on way too small a sampling.
I’ve seen roulette wheels com up black 20 times in a row or more. So? Does that mean the next 20 spins are going to be black?
The exceptions include Kennedy’s election simply because the Democrats stuff the ballot box is in Chicago and in Texas.
The exceptions include Kennedy’s election simply because the Democrats stuff the ballot box is in Chicago and in Texas.
Failure is not an option. Make the other side earn whatever advances they may secure, but at a very dear price to themselves.
May all their victories be Pyrrhic.
For sure early voting this time will be different than in previous
elections. By that I’m referring to the unknowns that will be present
on election day. I normally vote in person early but not sure how all
that will be arranged this time. By voting day we may all be wearing
some type head/toe suit while out in public.
No getting complacent! This is spiritual warfare!””
Believing this chaos is spiritual is being complacent. PS: You disagree.
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