Clinton, Rubio lead in 2016 US election poll

yahoo news ^ | 2 hours ago | Andrew Beatty

[entropy12]

Washington (AFP) - Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio are early frontrunners to become the next president of the United States, according to a well-regarded poll released Thursday.

The youthful but relatively inexperienced Rubio launched his campaign earlier this month, calling for a new era of American leadership that is not "stuck in the 20th century."

Rubio was the only Republican candidate to have double-digit support among hardline Tea Party supporters, evangelicals and party liberals.

[entropy12]

What? Rubio has double digit support among hardline Tea Party supporters, evangelicals?? Unbelievable.

I think they are infatuated by his fluency in Spanish and Hispanic heritage. They are scared of the growing Hispanic voter brigade.

[napscoordinator]

He is the last one to announce. That will change as others announce. The last one to announce will be the winner.....I hope Walker doesn’t announce until October 2016. lol.

[Diogenesis]

“US” polls do NOT survey RINO and Democrats in 5 states.

There is one poll that counts, and that is elections,
and in the last, the GOP LIED. LIED. LIED. and LIED.

[Zuben Elgenubi]

I won't vote for Rubio.

I won't vote for Hillary, unless she mounts Robert Reich on her back, ala MasterBlaster.

[nascarnation]

I voted for Hillary in 2008, but only because Rush told me to, LOL.

[entropy12]

Debates coming up in just a few months. That will separate the men from the boys.

[Piranha]

Boy, somebody is working very hard to make this amnesty-for-illegals advocate seem like the inevitable Republican candidate.

Or at least, as someone suggested, into a candidate that can split the Constitutional vote enough to give Jeb Bush a plurality.

[entropy12]

Naw...there is no vast RINO-wing conspiracy out there.

The people polled are not GOPe.

The real story is, it is way too early, 90% of people do not know anything about the candidates. When polled, they don’t want to look stupid, so they vote for whoever’s name is floating in their brain. The most recent announcements are the easiest to remember. Right now it is Rubio. Before it was Rand Paul. Before that it was Ted Cruz. Before that it was Jeb Bush.

The polls are totally meaningless 18 months before election.

[BigEdLB]

Quinnipiac Poll
Sample is odd : R 25 D 32 I 34

Poll PDF

I think th enational R/D diff is more like D+2, but that is among Registered voters,
Likely voters would be R+2

So that is a swing of 5 for registered and 9 for likelys. An erlier CNN National poll had crossovers to Clinton way overstated versus crossovers to GOP and that is why that looked so bad. This poll has mostly +/- 1 in crossovers which matches 2012.

With that in mind, I suggest the correction for registered voters, which is what Quinnipiac says they are surveying.

Clinton vs GOP, first is what Quinnipiac says it is and second is making it more in line with the national reality
vs Rubio, 45-43, 42.5-45.5
vs Christie 45-40, 42.5-42.5
vs Paul 46-42, 43.5-44.5
vs Huckabee 47-42, 44.5-44.5
vs Bush 46-39, 43.5-41.5
vs Walker 46-41, 43.5-43.5
vs Cruz 48-41, 45.5-43.5

Taking the +7 D they had and the +2D nationally among registered, I adjusted all by 5. I took 2.5 from Hillary, and gave 2.5 to the GOP. Now as to the independents...

I let them be. Here is the margins of the GOPs vs Clinton.


Christie +5
Paul -1
Huckabee -4
Bush +1
Rubio -2
Walker Even
Cruz -8 The only ones really affected by the Ind are Cruz, Huckabee, and Christie. If you were to cut the Inds in half and split those among the R&Ds for the others...not much change in the outcome.

Christie would lose one, Huckabee would gain one, and Cruz would gain about 2...


Clinton 43-Christie 42
Clinton 42-Huckabee 43
Clinton 44.5-Cruz 44.5

These polling outfits have to be studied thuroughly, but it is not like 2012 where everyone overassumed the GOP turnout. This is actual data where the peculiarities can be seen when observed in context with historical data.

[deport]

Not exactly a run away for any candidate at this stage of the game:

Quinnipac Poll:

Rubio 15, Bush 13, Walker 11, Cruz 9, Paul 8, Huckabee 7, Christie 7, Carson 3, Perry 3, Santorum 2, Kasich 2, Jindal 1

Recent Polls;
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

An earlier thread if anyone is interested in the comments:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3282214/posts

[BigEdLB]

If you look at all these polls, even though Clinton is ahead in Quinnipiac’s data she is UNDER 50%!

[entropy12]

18 or 19 months before election, the polls are just entertainment for political junkies like us.

[entropy12]

yes, agreed. At this stage, a year and half before election, polls are meaningless, just entertainment for political junkies. My own wife could’nt tell me who is running in 2016.

[skeeter]

A "well-regarded poll"?

Thats enough for me. I'm getting behind Rubio! /s

[rainee]

Clinton/Rubio ticket? might as well be..

[RIghtwardHo]

The GOP is going to get slaughtered in 2016. I don’t know whether to cheer or cry.

[Lurkinanloomin]

Yeah, that 8% of the electorate is terrifying./s

[RIghtwardHo]

I dunno. Didn’t last time.

[RIghtwardHo]

Let’s not do the “unskew the polls” thing. They never ends well.

[BigEdLB]

I am unskwewing nothing. I am comparing this to other surveys. I agree with you. The problem with 2012 is that the unskewers were overestimating turnout of the GOP