Skip to comments.Odds n Ends from a Remarkable Week
Posted on 10/06/2018 7:33:03 AM PDT by LS
Wow, what a week.
First, some background. I have a source on the judiciary/courts whom I call "Zen Master" because in two years he hasn't been wrong. He has given me heads up on all the circuit court judges, was right on Gorsuch, and very early said Judge K would be the selection (he favored another) and that Judge K would get confirmed. He predicted the confirmation would be September 28 by 53-47.
Ok, the date was a tad off because of the extra week demanded by Flakey, and the final will be two votes short because of MurCowSki's betrayal and Heitkamp's incredible electoral collapse that meant she had nothing to lose by voting against him. So, I grade that an A-.
He thinks it would have been a terrible mistake to go with Amy Barrett first. Not only would they have torn her apart, her pro-life views probably would have allowed Collins & Flakey to vote against her too.
Now, the moronic DemoKKKrats---in what has to be one of the stupidest strategic moves since Napoleon invaded Russia---have taken so extreme a position against Judge K they will be hard pressed to get even crazier against Barrett when she is nominated. And Buzzi will croak soon. (I know, they are DemoKKKrats and they can always get crazier---but my point is they have seriously damaged what little credibility they still had, and I think Barrett's confirmation after Jan. 2019 will be much easier).
It does appear that an alien invasion has taken place and the body snatchers have grabbed Mitch McConnell (Yertle), Lidnsey Graham (Lindsey Granite), Charles Grassley (The Lawn Mower), and temporarily Susan Collins.
Yertle has been magnificent in moving forward Trump's agenda in a Senate with no fewer than (prior to McTurd's death) FIVE dedicated obstructionists (McTurd, Flakey, Collins, MurCowSki, and Corkscrewed), supported by a reserve of Richard Burr (Burrito) and Thom Tillis (Mel Tillis). This is NOT a small thing to overcome, especially when the DemoKKKrats are in absolute lock step. If things go as I think electorally in November, and given that Kyl has replaced McTurd, we should be rid of all but Collins and MurCwoSki, and gain only Mitt Romney (Minion) in the first tier. I expect us to net gain 4-7 seats, but flipping out Kyl for McTurd and McSally for Flakey would essentially add a net of about four to five more Trumpers to the mix.
Given this balance, Yertle has been exceptional. He promised a vote on Ocare and came up one McTurd short; he promised passage of tax cuts and came through; he got Gorsuch and Kavanaugh confirmed; and to date he has gotten more circuit court judges confirmed in this amount of time than any Majority Leader in history.
It appears then that Trump has released the "inner Yertle." You have to give him credit for steadfastly marching this nomination forward inch by inch as is his turtle nature.
The Lawn Mower as well, not just in this but the hearings, has been fantastic. I loved how he quickly called the judiciary vote when Flakey got his one-week extension so Ds couldn't alter it.
Say what you will about the one-week extension, it almost certainly got us Collins's vote. And say what you will about Collins over the years, but she did something yesterday that NO other GOP senator really did, which we methodically take apart every single criticism of Judge K from a rational and LEGAL perspective. I actually wonder if any other senator on either side bothered to read Judge K's writings.
BUT HERE IS THE REALITY:
We should never, ever again be in a position where our party's nominee for the court is held hostage by a cabal of 2-3 unreliable RINOs. This is the down side of Yertle.
He MUST reassert control over his caucus the way the Ds do by ruthlessly punishing MurCowSki and anyone else who doesn't toe the line. No chairmanships, no fed $$, no RNC campaign funds. Flakey is irrelevant, but he must do this to Mel Tillis and Burrito and Mike Enzi and Dean Heller (if he survives) and anyone else who starts to go "Full McTurd" on us.
Now, the election: Many of these races are closer than they should be, a couple probably look closer than they really are (Scott, I think, is up 4-5 in FL, I think McSally is up in AZ, and I think Renacci is very close in OH). Richard Baris of PPD polling tells me Tester (Testicles) always "overpolls," so it may well be that race is tied. Hawley probably up more than polls show, Heitkamp done. Heller is on the bubble and Trump can pull him over.
The puzzle to me is Braun, who should be up by now. I understand he's not a great candidate, but this is IN folks.
All that said, I still think we NET 4-7 seats, and with a little luck and some patriots in NJ and MN, it could be more. Those races are VERY close according to people on the ground.
The House is close, no doubt. I have about 20 seats in play, but not only would the Ds have to run the table on every single one, but would have to find 4-5 more to take the House. There will be 2 D-R flips in MN, possibly one in AZ, NV, NH.
In the past two weeks many seats thought "gone" have not only stabilized but moved back toward the Rs: Coffman in CO has internals showing he's tied; Bishop in MI is up a couple; Dino Rossi's internals have him leading; Curbelo in FL is at worst in a tie; FL27, thought a loss, is in fact leaning R now; NO seat in OH will flip; people in TX tell me NO seat in TX will flip; Young Kim in CA now way up; and Antonio Sabato JR in Ventura thinks he's inside the MOE there. A high Cox turnout will help these CA candidates bigly. Yoder, Faso, Fitzpatrick all appear ok. Tenney on the bubble, lose one in NJ probably. Lose Blum in IA. NM2 appears to be safe.
Right now, I'd guess we barely hold the House (lose between 10-15 net, but could lose a max of 19). On the other hand, with a real red wave, D gains in the House could be in low single digits.
But, I'm told by my guys in OH examining a major county's early absentee ballots that so far "turnout" is off the charts. In 2016--a PRESIDENTIAL election---mail in absentees were 45,000 for the whole period. After just one week, mail in absentees are at 30,000! Better yet, they performed a terrific analysis in 2016 of the county where they looked at every single "indie/unaffiliated" household in the county and looked at that household's vote for the previous 20 years. Yes, people move. Still, they CORRECTLY allocated the indies and called the county for Trump, the first time an R had won since GHWB.
Their analysis right now, allocating all "indie/unaffiliated" ballots based on history, has Rs with a 4,000 lead (13%) after a week. While it is traditional for Rs to vote absentee and Ds to do "walk-in early voting," this is still a remarkable lead in what appears to be a shockingly high turnout.
LONG way to go, but if this is any indicator of what's coming in November, the DemoKKKrats are about to find themselves in Stalingrad.
Impossible to read with the cutesy nicknames...
Hope you’re right. Voters need to send a message to the Democrats that we never want to go through another confirmation hearing like this one.
I love your analysis. I hope it comes to fruition. As a Minnesotan, my greatest desire is to see Doug Wardlow beat (heh-heh) Keith Ellison for the AG spot.
Good analysis, as always, LS. I’m more optimistic on the House election results.
The Rats are not happy and will continue to show their true, ugly colors. That is a good thing.
I find the nicks to be mostly entertaining, but more importantly an indicator of some real fire-in-the-belly motivation.
Agreed. I gave up halfway. If you want us to read something you need to play it straight.
The Age of Dronezzzzzzzzz
A few weeks ago when this charade began to unfold I predicted that Kavanaugh would be confirmed on October 7th. I might have done well in an over/under bet!
11 pickups in Senate and 12 flips in House these were my predictions before Kavanaugh and I stand by them. I don’t have time to go over them now but these will be fired by The Hispanic Shift. See you all Tuesday.
Good to see you posting....in both places
Get over your own self
Gotta love that....lol
4-5 additions in the Senate. Trump hatred is neutered by Kavanaugh debacle. I’ll defer to history and all the pundits who insist dems will gain in the house, but the debauchery of the dems recently means their Trump hatred is neutered by the Kavanaugh debacle. Minimal gains, or no gains, or if there is a God in heaven dems will be decimated and will not surprise.
Get out the vote
Wow. A poster with a wedgie
Woods and Larry are back
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