Skip to comments.Updates on Mid-term elections
Posted on 10/15/2018 7:33:55 AM PDT by LS
Just a few observations that I see few people out there making.
1. Keep in mind that virtually ALL absentee ballots that are arriving now were MAILED on or about the time of the Judge K hearings & almost certainly will reflect that outrage.
2. I am hearing rumblings---can't put much solid behind it---that DemoKKKrats are really, really getting worried.
At every level. In AZ, Enema has just imploded with one scandal after another, in NV Heller has built his lead, in ND, MO, TX, and TN, the Rs have settled into solid leads (and no, Betamale has NEVER, EVER been close to Ted Cruz---but thanks for building a bonfire out of that $38m).
I have heard, for example, in MN, that MANY of the races are very close. Can't say more. In VA, word is that KrazyKlownKaine is worried, is sending his office staff out to do lit drops and that a poll now has him just up 5 against a weak candidate in a blue state.
Callers are telling me they noticed a sharp change 2 weeks ago with the Kavanaugh stuff, and Richard Baris's polling showed a DRAMATIC virtually overnight shift of 4-10 points in various states.
Don't believe what you hear about OH being a big Brown lead. Guys on the ground tell me Renacci just down "a couple" and they think the Trump visits will put him over.
2. SO FAR, absentee voting in both FL and OH looks EXACTLY like the presidential election year of 2016. This would be huge, and would be indicative of the "red wave." THE FACT IS: if they aren't calling the House early, the chances are we have held. If you see we held FL26, 27, KY6, NC's two seats, all but one of NY, and OH, it's a pretty good chance the Ds can't find enough seats in the rest of the country. We should know fairly early.
3. MANY indicators show the Ds are getting a reality bath that they will lose huge in the Senate and won't take the House: first, there was an article in the Hill or one of the mouthpiece organs saying "We might not know on election night who wins the House." Why is that? If it's a "blue wave," we'd know immediately if three or four NY seats go Dem, if a FL seat goes Dem, if an NC seat goes Dem. But the fact is, there is now really only one NY seat at risk (Tenney) and she is in a red district; that we'll lose 3 in PA through redistricting, but may flip one in NH; that NJ may see three losses. After that, though, NC is safe, TX is safe, OH is safe, Rossi way up in WA, both FL26 and FL27 are looking like "holds"; Andy Barr is safe; Mike Bishop is safe in MI (but we may lose Trott's seat); and the guys in IL look safe. We may lose one in IA (Blum), lose McSally's seat in AZ possibly.
On the other hand, we are now looking to flip at least two in MN, one in AZ, and one in NV for a total of four seats looking good. But there are a good five more seats (including the NH seat) that could flip D-R.
Bottom line, I have Ds gaining a floor of 10 seats net, a ceiling of 15 seats net, short of control However, our floor appears to be a loss of about 10 but our ceiling could be a loss of only 4 seats net.
BTW, a leading D analyst did his board and it's close to mine, saying Rs hold by 8 seats.
4. Bad news: Looks like Gillum's Island is for real in FL, a combo of a high black turnout (also in GA gov race) and DeSantis being weak. For ex., Baris's polling showed a whopping 62% of Floridians said they would NEVER vote for a "socialist" yet DeSantis is unable to make that label stick to Gillum's Island. As of now, I think Scott wins the Senate, DeSantis the Gov.
Florida also has the hurricane issue, which is seriously affecting absentee voting (traditionally R). Now, in 2 weeks it is possible that these vagabonds manage to get to the polls, but with lives disrupted it's not highly likely. This will affect Panhandle votes (red) but ALSO ironically will hit Gillum's Island's home base of Tallahassee, hurting him as well.
5. John James has made up some ground in MI. Don't think it's enough. Likewise, Leah Vukmir in WI---which should have been a pickup---has stalled and is depending on Walker to carry her across. He will win, but not by enough to help her.
6. Hugin appears to be the real deal in Joisey, and Manchin is leading by only a point. These are genuine pickup possibilities. Once Trump is confident AZ, NV, MT, and IN are locked down, you'll see him in WV and NJ.
Thanks for the update LS.
Grumbling here on Milwaukee talk radio is that Vukmir definitely wants a Trump visit but Walker doesn’t because it goes against his overall approach to campaigning.
Walker is making a bad mistake IMO.
At most, we lose 7 to 10 house seats.
LS, I am in Dave Brat’s district - VA-7. I think Brat will hold on by about 3-5 percent, but Spannberger is presenting a strong challenge. Any word on that race?
Ridiculous that Desantis can’t be a socialist in FL. FL is not Maine or CA, it’s almost 50-50.
Thank you for your hard work! Disappointed about Gillum but hopefully Scott can drag him across the line. My family is 4 votes for Scott and Desantis and we vote Election Day everytime. I dont like absentee or early voting. To much possible fraud.
Beto is only running for exposure for a 2020 presidential run. They have no one else.
Democrats are not acting like people confidently anticipating an impending smashing victory.
The most recent FL poll about the Miami Rep seat showed showed the Latin vote was strongly behind the entire Rep ticket including Desantis and Scott . Desantis speaks spanish .
And Hillary won this district by 30 pts.
i find the lack of any FL or GA legit polls after the Kav hearing more than interesting .
Neither is the media. It's going to be a fun election evening!
My gut tells me DeSantis and Scott will win...the early vote numbers are very much the same in Florida as in 2016.
We need to point out Desantis hired a new campaign manager and the attacks are flying now .
So plenty of Wisconsin voters will split their voting for GOP Gov Walker and they like Dem Sen Baldwin .
The eastern part of wildly loony-left WA state is traditionally a lock for Republicans. Our rep is Cathy McMorris Rogers, who’s been in office a very long time.
Worrisome that Lisa Brown, a sneering far, far leftie is coming on strong. Peculiar that in the best, most expensive neighborhoods Brown signs far outnumber Rogers. We already have 20,000 new immigrants in Spokane thanks to Obama. Many/most of them muslims. I hate to think what Brown would open the door to.
BTW, my physician is from Nigeria, terrific Christian guy, my favorite doctor ever. His family welcome any time.
Prayer time for all congressional districts. We need every one of them.
I live in the most electorally volatile district in the country, NY24. It’s currently held by Republican John Katko and I see no signs that his Democratic challenger will win.
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