Skip to comments.The Democrats' 100-year flood
Posted on 05/22/2019 5:51:38 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The midterm elections may have been a sign of what's ahead for the 2020 presidential election: experts say the voter turnout could be the highest in a century.
The big picture: According to Michael McDonald, an elections expert at the University of Florida, turnout for the 2020 presidential election could be as high as 67% the highest it's been since at least 1916. If that happens, President Trump will have a tougher fight for a second term.
He's driving turnout among those most unhappy with him (younger voters and people of color) even when he's not on the ballot. And Trump voters aren't a growing demographic group. The share of whites with less than a 4-year degree Trump's constituency dropped by 3% from 2014 to 2018.
Between the lines: McDonald is basing his prediction of "a hundred-year storm" on the 2018 midterms, which had the highest off-year election turnout in more than a century (50%). He says that momentum will only get stronger. Prior to 2018, turnout rates for midterms since 1974 had been languishing around 40% to 41%.
"It doesn't seem to be the candidates who were running in 2018; there wasn't hyper competition driving turnout; some states made it easier to vote, but that can't explain it because the increase was happening in every state," McDonald said. "So the only explanation is Donald Trump because hes the only major factor thats changed in our politics since 2014." Turnout in the 2016 presidential election was 60%.
"The safest prediction in politics is for a giant turnout in 2020," said Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. "Nobody's going to believe the polls after 2016, and everyone will assume a tight race." "Anti-Trump Democrats and the pro-Trump base will both set human adrenaline records the intensity across the country is going to be spectacular. Let's hope the polling places can accommodate the crowds."
With that kind of increase, turnout rates would likely go up for everybody. But: Older white people already tend to vote at high rates, and they're close to their maximum turnout already. By contrast, you'll see bigger turnout increases among young people, people of color, and low-income people generally important constituencies for the Democratic Party because they vote in lower numbers. From 2014 to 2018, turnout among whites with a 4-year degree went up 17%, while non-white voters' turnout increased by 15%.
Yes, but: There could be some increase among Trump voters, too. Turnout among whites without a 4-year degree went up by 12% in the same period. "I'd imagine these people are going to be activated in 2020 with Trump on the ballot," McDonald said.
While the country is becoming more diverse, it's also getting older, particularly in places like Ohio and throughout the Midwest, according to the 2020 Census Bureau projections. That's another group that Trump tends to perform well with with, especially older white voters.
The Trump campaign isn't buying it. "Predicting turnout this far in advance of an election is a fool's errand," said campaign spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany, noting that there's no sure way to know which voters will turn out.
The bottom line: For all of his struggles in the polls, Trump is the incumbent and he has a booming economy. But a historic election turnout could wipe out those advantages and the early signs suggest that's exactly what we're about to get.
>>The big picture: According to Michael McDonald, an elections expert at the University of Florida, turnout for the 2020 presidential election could be as high as 67%
Rats are busy manufacturing straight party vote ballots as we speak.
“The bottom line: For all of his struggles in the polls, Trump is the incumbent and he has a booming economy. But a historic election turnout could wipe out those advantages and the early signs suggest that’s exactly what we’re about to get.”
Newer voters are always voting democrat, not republican...
30,000,000 illegals will be voting.
That’s why they’re flooding over the border.
They forgot the other group--non-citizens.
Why else would the Democrats be so intent on getting as many illegal aliens as possible across the border?
Are you better off today than four years ago?
Axios predicted a Trump win in 2016? If they didnt then they are probably still wrong.
In national elections, high turn out is almost always good news for Democrats.
Historically, white Conservatives have had the highest turn out of any other voting group for many decades.
When turn out is above average, that usually means that Democrats are getting their indolent core voters to the polls.
Gropin Joe ain’t gonna be a contender.
And old Bernie the Red is just pathetic.
If they stick Moose Obama in at the last minute the meme warriors will have over half the voters believing she has a dick within a week.
“Elections expert” = LOL.
No photoshopping required!
According to Michael McDonald, an elections expert at the University of Florida”
Stopped reading right there.
If it's Biden they'll vote for Biden.
It doesn't matter if Biden is their worst choice. Every Democrat will vote for him in order to get rid of Trump.
People can mock Biden with memes and his own gaffs. Democrats won't care.
For Democrats it's anyone but Trump.
Biden is a legitimate threat and everyone better start taking the threat seriously.
If you don't understand this you don't understand Democrats.
(Yes, I know about his son Hunter and Ukraine, China, and drugs but don't hold out hope that will stop him. Unless any of the allegations pan out it's not going to stop Democrats voting for Biden).
Unfortunately, relentless propaganda does work.
Won’t just be “Unknown D” at the top of the ballot. As in Texas in 2018 it will be “new” Democrats voting straight party ballot meaning a sweep of local offices and judges even if they don’t win a state (as Buzzo won the big cities in Texas, as did the Democrat gov. candidate but they didn’t win their own races which were statewide).
And some of the ballots from “new” voters may even be genuine.
People who predict what individuals will do because of what their racial population has historically done are racists!
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