Jaafari is unlikely to retain post of Iraqi PM

Newsday ^ | February 19 2006 | Timothy M. Phelps

[jmc1969]

al-Jaafari's nomination to continue for four more years as Iraq's prime minister is already in trouble, according to Iraqi sources.

"I doubt he will be confirmed," said a member of the United Iraqi Alliance, the Shia political coalition that last week nominated al-Jaafari.

The nomination by the UIA, the largest political group in the new Iraqi Council of Representatives, or parliament, was supposed to make confirmation a formality.

But al-Jaafari is unpopular with the Kurds, the second largest bloc in the council. And his most powerful backer, anti-American Shia militant Muqtada al-Sadr, is anathema to another bloc, led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, which the Kurds insist must be part of the new government.

At the same time, al-Jaafari is having trouble holding together his own coalition, which nominated him by a majority of one vote. One party in the Shia bloc - the Virtue Party, which voted against him - is publicly threatening to pull out. At the same time, sources in the Supreme Council for the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which fielded the losing candidate, AdelAbdul Mahdi, said they have not given up hope that Abdul Mahdi will get the job.

On Thursday, Iraqi President and Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, during a provocative meeting with the defeated Abdul Mahdi, warned that al-Jaafari's nomination does not mean appointment, according to an Iraqi television report. He has also insisted that the new government must include Allawi, who tried to put al-Sadr in prison when Allawi was prime minister.

Talabani is still expected in the next few weeks to give al-Jaafari the opportunity to draw up a cabinet. But under the Iraqi constitution, if he fails to win endorsement for his cabinet from a majority in the Council of Representatives, al-Jaafari will have to give the opportunity to someone else.

[jmc1969]

Ping

[traderrob6]

Abdul Mahdi would be the best possible outcome for the US.

[Cap Huff]

Looks like it is going to be touch and go, but I think the Iraqis are going to pull this one off. Of course, that just would get them to the starting gate, but there is reason for some optimism here.

[Marine_Uncle]

Never a duel moment in Iraqi politics. At least Sadr is being shown to have less influence then some of the articles portrait. One can only wonder how much less evil say Hakim would be then Mahdi, concerning making an attempt at being fair to Iraqis that are not Shia, and particularly not pro Iranian. It always goes back to someone like Allawi being the best choice. Certainly this time around he would try his best to solidify the country under one flag and govern in a secular form. Seperate the dominant Shia supreme religious council for instance from gaining to much cloat as the constitutional changes that must be made come into play and how their new body of laws shall be interpreted and carried out. So much rides on this first government. It will set the stage for success or failure. But I realize Allawi is not going to be able to make a play for the top job, let alone a key PM position. And he may just decide to call it quits and move back to London.

[jmc1969]

Allawi is still in the running for a position like the Interior Ministery, it depends on what happens in the next couple weeks.

[Marine_Uncle]

For those like myself that tend to forget things, in this case due to my sloppy studies of the Iraqi constitution, one can find exactly what the Prime Minister/President duties are in Section three of their constitution. Articles 37 through 45. In principle it appears the President does have control over the PM and his cabinet. At least to some degree. So regardless of whom where to become PM, DM, IM, perhaps if Talabani stays in office as the president, things would not get totally out of hand. I am refering to a radical shia dominated parliment lead by a guy like Hakim or Mahdi.
Then again. I may be totally off based, which I sense may be the case. Talabini has shown he attempts to be fair. Of course being a Kurd he can continue to offer methods to thwart any power plays by radicial arab shia, hopefully. If things come to push and shove, the president is ultimately in charge of the Iraqi military. And the military by most indications appear to have welcomed the US into their bossom. And if this is true, guys like Sadr regardless of their current influence may in the long run, just fade away if they are not willing to loosen up.

[jmc1969]

There are so many different parties within the UIA and outside it that it will be really hard for any one or two parties in the UIA to have a massive say if the UIA continues to fracture and that is exactly what I hope will happen.

Talabani is currently unhappy because the presidents powers are sharply limited by the Constitution and he and the Kurds are demanding that be changed.

[Marine_Uncle]

"Allawi is still in the running for a position like the Interior Ministery, it depends on what happens in the next couple weeks."
Understand. But it just seems like he has to many strikes against him. All that oppose can point to anything he did as PM that went bad. But as usual I hope he can make a come back. Better to have an ex Baathist who realizes how evil things can get and attempt to avoid such pitfuls then someone fresh into the game of politics and leadership. Iraq needs stability if it is to exists as a Federation per it's constitution. Surely Allawi has the maturity to not play games at this point. Perhaps the interior ministry is more important then any other position, as it is here the Iraqi economy and future must be established. The military posts is ultimately under guidance of the president, and as long as the US is in situ, things can be worked out, but the Iraqi affairs of state appear to full strongly on the IM, which of course would also be able to influence the DM and PM on many issues. So I can see where some are still hoping Allawi has a chance at the post.

[Marine_Uncle]

"... UIA to have a massive say if the UIA continues to fracture and that is exactly what I hope will happen."
Same hope. And perhaps one of Sadr's gravious fears is in the president seeking to modify the constitution in order to gain more over all power. This would spell a real defeat as you elude to by your statement, to the Shia. At least in these critical first four years. The SCIR to name one must truely fear all Iranian influence to go down the piss hole in effect.

[Democracy In Iraq]

Is it just me, or does this look like democracy? Hmmm.

[Almondjoy]

Those that were worried about an Islamic Republic can put that baby to rest. Democracy is well at work in Iraq as this shows.

[cookcounty]

The blog Iraq the Model was posting this a couple of days ago. For the most part a positive development that represents a strengthening of the secular / less religious forces.