Posted on 06/02/2008 4:48:34 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
On the eve of the final pair of Democratic primaries, a new poll of South Dakota Democrats gives Hillary Clinton a 26-point lead over Barack Obama – a surprise, at least to me, in a state that had the early makings of an Obama stronghold.
The survey, from the independent New Hampshire-based American Research Group, shows Clinton pounding Obama by a 60-34 percent spread. The only previous poll in the state, from about a month ago, had Obama up by 12. Because every other state around South Dakota previously went overwhelmingly for Obama, there had been little expectation in the national press that Clinton would win there.
Not surprisingly, the ARG poll is being greeted with some skepticism. But in a phone conversation a few minutes ago, Dick Bennett, ARG's president, told me that the assumption that South Dakota is Obama country has been flawed from the start.
"The numbers we got are consistent with what we've seen in other states," Bennett said. "The groups that are usually supporting her are supporting her. The people who live there look more like Clinton voters than Obama voters."
Bennett pointed out that South Dakota is a closed primary, meaning that only registered Democrats can participate: "So the turnout is going to be lower. The bonus votes that Barack Obama has been getting among independents? They're not going to be able to turn out. When you look at the other states that are like this, Hillary Clinton has done very well."
Bennett also noted South Dakota’s large Native American population, its high median age and low number of college graduates, factors that also work in Clinton's favor. And then there's the gender issue.
"I talked to our supervisors [at the polling center] on Saturday and asked them what was happening, and they said that it's women – they're just not ready to let Clinton go," he said.
Bennett said he's surprised that anyone would be surprised by his findings. When I pointed out that every states that borders South Dakota – North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Wyoming – has sided with Obama (often by overwhelming numbers) he replied: "Those weren't primaries. Those were caucuses."
The results from Nebraska's non-binding May 13 primary suggest there is something to this line of thinking. In that primary, with turnout three times higher than in the state's February caucuses, Obama won by just two points. In the caucuses, his margin was 36 points. Still, he did win. Could he really be trailing by 26 points in South Dakota?
"Could it be the sample size?" Bennett asked. "I guess. But we broke the sample up over two days, and we didn't see any great shifts."
If the numbers do prove true, Bennett said it's not a sign of any broad shift toward Clinton and away from Obama among Democrats, since they are both performing as well (or poorly) as they usually do among various demographic groups. But it would mean that national political observers (myself included) have badly misread the demographics of South Dakota.
A big South Dakota win for Clinton could, depending on the outcome in Montana, also shift the popular-vote math in her favor, allowing her to claim a victory without counting Michigan (although she would still have to exclude caucus states like Iowa, in which no official popular vote tally was maintained but where more Democrats clearly preferred Obama).
It’s not a bad deal really. Obama didn’t get a single vote in Michigan but got 55 delegates thanks to that renowned miracle worker; Howard Dean.
My alter ego, “Lezbe Friends” will be sending a note of encouragement to the hildabeast campaign!
“All the way to Denver! You go girl!”
I just keep in mind that when a liberal Democrat wins, everyone loses. The aspirin bottle doesn’t empty as fast that way.
It’s too late: SD is powerless. It was SC, who had the power to propel Oprah’s Obama to the White House.
Not surprising at all. The folks in SD saw Father Pfleger on TV and just reminded em of Crazy Jeremiah. The MSM refuses to see the obvious, that the Messiah is being exposed. The ‘folks’ get it, they don’t need Keither Olbermeister to rant and rave about the ‘war criminal’ Bush and Saint Barry. Hillary gets it too, that is why she won’t quit tomorrow, she will keep her options open./
Howard Dean, Pelousi, Reid, NBC all should go down in history as conspirators in defrauding America of its first viable, female president. I hope they rot. I’m starting a group of Hillary’s women to support McCain. Everyone should get very active or this obama character and his comspirators might just achieve their goal.
After the Democrats apply affirmative action and use the Michigan model, it will be Osama with a 50 point victory.
Florida and Michigan should not be seating any delegates. They knowingly and deliberately broke the rules. Now they should face the consequences.
How can you say such a thing? Ascertain the will of the voters!! Consult the urim and the thummin. C’mon, you should know how this is played by now.
How does keeping out independents benefit Hillary again ?
I wonder if Dem higher-ups (otherwise known as lowlifes) are at all concerned that their nominee is getting pounded by massive margins in most of the final primary states?
ARG are fruitcakes.
However, even for them 26 points is ridiculous.
McAlulliffe predicted victory there so Klinton camp must be seeing positive numbers.
Is he pulls out somehow both Montana and South Dakota, aside from being a huge embarrassment for Obama, she may change her campaign form issuing a SUSPENSION to CHALLENGE.
Use Michigan Delegates to take this to Convention Floor.
Tom Daschle, getting his clock cleaned in his own state.
Amazing.
Yes. People didn’t know about Obama before. Now they do, and they prefer Hillary.
I wonder if they are resigned to losing the White House in order to keep the black vote on the plantation in the future?
“Florida and Michigan should not be seating any delegates. They knowingly and deliberately broke the rules. Now they should face the consequences.”
Who is they? The problem with that is that the ones who screwed around and never agreed upon primary dates were the state and national Dem. party organization (and Republican I think(), and the Florida legislature.
But these entities are not the ones who’ve been disenfranchised. It’s the Florida voter who had nothing to do with any of those disputes and failures to agree who are being screwed and disenfranchised. Their votes aren’t really being counted in a presidential primary, though they went to the polls and voted just as voters in the other forty eight states did.
The Florida voters got screwed. And that should not have happened. It’s a pity there aren’t some stiff fines and a little jail time to hand out to the higher ups and legislators who caused that.
I think they'd rather go down in flames, come November, with the Messiah Obama than risk alienating the black electorate permanently by shunting him aside for Hillary, who could probably beat McCain in the general election. And I don't think a Michelle Obama "whitey" tape will change that, either!
See my 17.
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