Montana: Obama Leads McCain By Five (Rasmussen Poll)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 7/3/08 | Rasmussen

[NYC Republican]

Barack Obama is leading John McCain by five percentage points in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while McCain earns 43%.

In April, the numbers were reversed with McCain leading 48% to 43%. That was before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and defeated Hillary Clinton by fifteen points in Montana. Fifty percent (50%) of Montana Democrats want Clinton named as Obama’s running mate. Just 29% of all Montana voters would like to see Clinton as the Vice Presidential nominee.

Against McCain, Obama leads among voters under 50, including a twenty-seven point lead among voters under 30. McCain leads among those over 50. Obama is supported by 89% of Montana Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans.

Twenty-five percent (25%) of Montana voters say McCain is too old to be President while 42% say Obama is too inexperienced.

It would be truly stunning if Obama could turn Montana into a competitive state this November. George W. Bush won Montana’s 3 Electoral College Votes by twenty percentage points in 2004 and by twenty-five points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin (Ross Perot picked up 14% of the vote).

The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.

[NYC Republican]

If we lose Montana, we’re looking at a 40-state blowout loss... Maybe more

[Perdogg]

Obama is not going to win Montana.

[jayef]

Sure would be nice if the GOP would have nominated a better candidate.

[fwdude]

This, from the quintessential gun rights state.

I am convinced that the older democrats are completely divorced from reality these days. They seriously believe that any hardships the nation experiences now are the fault of Republicans, in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. I’m very familiar with one, and anytime something bad happens, it’s “this is Bush’s fault.” Literally.

[NYC Republican]

Yhis jackass, McCain, goes on record today as saying H is trustworthy... You’ve gotta wonder... is he throwing the election? Seriously?

[Slump Tester]

I remember when Fritz and Tits were supposed to be WAY ahead of Reagan, too.

[A Balrog of Morgoth]

I must point out the fact the Democrat always leads in July.

I make no claims about Montana specifically, but, grain of salt and all that.....

And I am the most tepid of kind-of-maybe not quite there yet sort of McCain supporter, so I am not entirely sure I even care.

[NYC Republican]

This has the makings of a Reagan-style blowout, for H, and JM does nothing to fight back... Disgraceful

[Snurple]

yawn

[NYC Republican]

Different time.... Would be supremely naive to not realize that

[NYC Republican]

If it was a blue state, it would be... but it’s a state Bush carried by over 20 both times

[jwalsh07]

I’ll bet you a thousand bucks right now that McCain wins Montana. And if you’re not interested the bet is open to Rasmussen.

[NYC Republican]

He may very well wind up winning, but tracking 25 points behind Bush, at this stage, is really troubling

[jwalsh07]

13* Is free trade good or bad for the United States economy?

40% Good

29% Bad

19% Neither

12% Not sure

I guarantee you that 100% of the 60% that don’t think free trade is a good thing shop at WalMart.

[eddie willers]

This is also from that article:

Fifty percent (50%) of Montana voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than it is to win the War.

I simply do not believe that to be true.

I think that throws the whole poll results out the window.

[Freedom4US]

Montana? Suspect the methodology. Polling isn’t so much a measurement but a “crowd control” manipulation. It works, that’s why billions are spent on this kind of thing. What do you Suppose that all those nebulous feel-good alphabet agencies like the “Centers For Public Policy and Social Research” are doing at all those universities anyway?

[Freedom4US]

I subscribed to my states conservation magazine recently.

It’s not your grandfathers’ Field & Stream, boys and girls.

They did provide a web link to their “poll results”, but on the end page they had a blurb where they claimed that the #1 issue that a huge majority of our states hunters and fisherman worried about was “Global Warming”. What this type of propaganda depends on is the “herd instinct”, apparently. It derives its’ usefulness on people who cannot think critically or, objectively. The aim is to marginalize what may in fact be majority opinion and present it as extreme and in the minority, and inflate the radical, BS point of view as reasonable and in reality the majority view. Rinse, lather repeat.

[TNCMAXQ]

If this poll is correct, then it’s not only McCain in trouble. America loses big time if Obama wins in MT.

This poll just doesn’t sound right though because it suggests if Obama is winning GOP leaning states then he is headed for perhaps a 45 state blow out. If he is doing that well in MT and Indiana, then he should have huge leads in OH, PA, MI, and even FL. But there the race is close or he is behind. This is just very odd.

[bilhosty]

there is a glow around Obama since he has cinched the nomination. As it gets later in the election people will think harder and deeper about things and reconnect with their cultural and ideological inclinations and his being the new flavor will be less and less important. But, then again it is a serious mistake if Republicans and Conservatives don't figure out that their back is to the wall and they had better do something instead of denying the obvious (as so many on this site are doing) or just being country clubbers serving themselves Tea on the deck of the titanic while watching it go down and doing nothing to save themselves.