Posted on 09/01/2008 3:43:31 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
Don’t count us out just yet. We went for Bush in ‘00 and Kerry just barely squeaked out a win here in ‘04. If we’re really lucky, we can save Sununu and dump the embarrassing Che Porter and Hodes.
If any campaign ever needed to vet Gergen, they’d discover that he has a preference for wearing pink silky ladies undergarments.
kool, i like him, lol. /S
But what if Obama wins all 57 of his states?
There are a lot of things in play here, including how much Rendell gets involved. He's a Hillary supporter, and a union thug leader, so if he calls his dogs off, and keeps his “walking around money” in his pocket, the drunks, drifters and ‘dead’ are unlikely to make it to the voting booths.
Also important will be whether or not the Republican Party allows the cheating to continue. Last time (2004) the precincts in Philly reported 101% turnout! That’s no lie! 101%! And the GOP did nothing!
Stop that and you stop Obama from stealing PA!
All the mud they throw against the wall is flopping backing into their faces.
For once, it appears the party elites and media have to follow instead of push.
Folks,
Don’t try to analyze EVs starting from zero. Start from Bush’s 2004 totals instead.
He won with 286 EVs. Iowa and New Mexico are likely lost and they are 7 and 5, respectively. That would be a 4 EV victory if all other states held constant.
As of now, it looks very much like Colorado is the decisive state. Note that Bush won Ohio by 118,000 votes, and lost Pennsylvania by 144,000 votes. Nearly the same margin, so if you’re inclined to think that Ohio was close, don’t discount the chance of flipping Pennsylvania.
But in general, barring big surprises, locking down Colorado and Nevada and holding the line in Ohio wins this election.
?? of the 57?
Demographics have changed - not necesarily for the better.
“don’t discount the chance of flipping Pennsylvania.”
_________________________________
Bush lost in MI in ‘04 by 3% (160,000 votes). Depending on how things play out in the Kwame Kilpatrick scandal (the democratice mayor of Detroit) I could see it flipping to McCain as well.
Mitt Romney could help out here. As does Palin (NRA, pro drilling, husband union guy)
Should be enough out of 57, n'est ce pas?
Momaw -— Great work! Thanks for doing this every week.
I found one way to start quantifying the bias. This was posted on another Intrade thread.
To: SSS Two
So InTrade believes there is a 11% chance that Gov. Palin will withdraw after being nominated?
***Yes, if that’s her current price. It’s probably a good shorting opportunity, but I think you risk $89 + fees to make that $11. My understanding is that it still sounds like an interesting arbitrage opportunity, but you wouldn’t be able to collect until the contract expires November.
62 posted on Tuesday, September 02, 2008 12:44:20 PM by Kevmo (Obama Birth Certificate is a Forgery. http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/certifigate/index?tab=articles)
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To: Kevmo
Actually, this may be a reasonable indicator of the bias at Intrade. The contract was started because of Intraders sending in suggestions.
Her contract is ~$12 * 2074 volume =~ 24-25k of Price*Volume product worth of bias. It’s an interesting place to start to quantify the bias over there. Once you can quantify the bias, the new perspective should generate arbitrage opportunities.
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
PALIN.VP.WITHDRAWN
Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election M Trade 11.5 13.0 12.0 2074 +9.0
63 posted on Tuesday, September 02, 2008 12:53:52 PM by Kevmo (Obama Birth Certificate is a Forgery. http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/certifigate/index?tab=articles)
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