[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 265 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 273 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 272.47 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[CSI007]

Probably about as worthless as most polls. This same site had the chance of Palin being choosen as VP under 2% didn’t it. ;)

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[TWohlford]

TOSS UP STATES:

Michigan (17) — Obama +2%. Carried by Dems since Reagan. Obama efforts hampered by low popularity of Governor (who is a Clinton supporter) as well as the legal woes of black politicians in Detroit. Primaries won by Hillary (in fiasco election), Romney. Hard economic conditions has lead to an exodus of voters, and that impact is uncertain.

Ohio (20) — McCain +2.2%. Carried by Dubya in both elections. Primaries won by Hillary, McCain.

Pennsylvania (21) — Obama +2.3% Carried by Dems in last 2 elections. Primaries won by Hillary, McCain.

Virginia (13) —McCain +2.6% Carried by Dubya in both elections. Primaries won by Obama, McCain.

Colorado (9) — Obama +2.3% Carried by Dubya in both elections. Primaries won by Obama, Romney.

New Mexico (5) — Obama +2.3% Carried by Dubya in last election. Primaries won by Hillary, McCain.

****

Anyone have more info on these states?

[comebacknewt]

Still need to flip Colorado.

Everything else is rounding into shape.

[Congressman Billybob]

Thank you for posting these regularly. I always look at the statistical average generated, because it suggests the direction of movement. When the statistical average for McCain was less than the chart number, I concluded that he was weak. Mow that number is higher, and ever so slightly above average.

Congressman Billybob

Click here -- I think you'll be surprised and delighted.

Latest article, "I, Obama"

[Norman Bates]

We are above 270 when weighted!!

[Viet Vet in Augusta GA]

This is more accurate than a POLL because it is a MARKET. Markets have better predictive records than polls. Another good one with a great track record is the Iowa Electronic Market http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ where people can bet real money on several races, including President - Winner Take All and President - Vote Share.

[goldstategop]

CO, NM and NH are in the wrong column! Intrade leans left but its not good news for Obama!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Kevmo]

Thanks for the post. Currently, Intrade results are lagging poll results. This means there’s some arbitrage opportunities in whichever states have the lag.

[Viet Vet in Augusta GA]

Please add me to ping list for this!!!

[Atlas Sneezed]

On the close states where they are not ahead but are in striking distance, McPalin’s over 45% in CO, over 40 in NH, NM, over 35 in MI, and over 30 in MN and PA. (I think 2:1 odds in PA is an attractive bet to a GOP optimist.) All the rest under 30%.

Obama is over 40% in NV and VA, over 35 in OH, all the rest under 30%.

McCain is in striking distance in 6 states, and Obama only 3. McCain needs only one of these to win.

Looking good.

[SERKIT]

In the stronghold state of Illinois, no one is watching Barry's decline in the polls. This may be a bellwether example of Barry's losses.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/il/08-il-pres-ge-mvo.php

The above poll has not been updated since the wave of Gov Palin came on strong. Barry may well be below 50% in Illinois, but no one is noticing.

If the Indies and disenchanted DEMS are switching sides and since both King Richard of Chicago and Gov Blow-Dry-o-Vich have been relatively kind to Gov Palin, I think Illinois could surprise people.

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	241.05	20.18%
14-Jan	235.29	14.70%
21-Jan	234.76	14.66%
28-Jan	236.58	15.44%
4-Feb	236.26	15.41%
11-Feb	237.25	16.43%
18-Feb	230.61	12.69%
25-Feb	233.56	15.44%
3-Mar	234.54	16.27%
10-Mar	240.26	22.49%
17-Mar	244.58	24.60%
24-Mar	249.73	28.50%
31-Mar	252.18	30.87%
7-Apr	248.97	27.60%
14-Apr	249.24	27.62%
21-Apr	247.86	25.60%
28-Apr	251.65	29.06%
5-May	250.84	28.07%
12-May	252.31	29.25%
19-May	248.73	25.99%
26-May	250.15	27.10%
2-Jun	248.98	26.46%
9-Jun	247.87	26.81%
16-Jun	248.41	26.06%
23-Jun	233.92	15.76%
30-Jun	234.84	16.21%
14-Jul	237.43	19.14%
21-Jul	231.61	14.15%
28-Jul	233.21	15.18%
4-Aug	234.45	16.45%
11-Aug	242.62	21.56%
18-Aug	246.64	25.20%
25-Aug	248.30	25.59%
01-Sep	255.23	32.44%
08-Sep	254.33	30.70%
14-Sep	272.47	51.00%

Rasmussen put out a bunch of new polls yesterday and today.

For comparison, the results of 20,000 simulations of another model based on Rasmussen state-by-state polls as of 15-Sep are: GOP Electoral Votes = 275.60, Probability of 270 = 62.48%. The sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that a 1% reduction in Obama polling and a 1% increase in McCain polling results in 303.16 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 95.68% chance of winning.

-PJ

[fhayek]

As of this week, McCain has all of the states that start with ‘A’. Obama has all the states that start with ‘C’. The Dems have all the ‘New’ states, but we have all the ‘North’ and ‘South’ states. We own the ‘T’ states, but the ‘V’ and ‘W’ states are evenly split. There are eight ‘M’ states, and Obama has the edge 5 to 3. Tune in tomorrow for more in depth political analysis. ;^)

[Jet Jaguar]

Finally, McCain breaks 270

[Kevmo]

This morning there’s a new graphic on the Intrade login screen: it looks like your electoral map of Intrade results.

McCain has slight edge on the map, but Obama has retaken the lead for the individual pres. contracts. That might mean an arbitrage opportunity somewhere.