Posted on 10/13/2008 4:41:46 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 174 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 364 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 204.42 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/6/2008
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When the day is done, there is no way McCain loses Nevada, North Carolina, Virginian or WV. I see this being very close to the bitter end.
I meant at the no way he loses Missouri (already took into account he wraps up WV)
There is a lot of great, great money bets to be had here.
3-1 odds that McCain wins Ohio! WOW! That’s mortgage the house and bet it all type of odds.
Are any of the legislative races feeling any of the effects of irritated voters because of the bail out?
Thanks for the ping. Polls today show McCain within 4 points of Obama nationally. That suggests some good buy opportunities on some key states and the individual pres contract, which is at 27 for McCain now, nice & cheap.
Kerry Leads Bush 49% to 43% In Ohio (October 22 2004)
President Kerry says bet the ranch and take the 3-1 odds in Ohio!!!
So, McCain needs to flip CO, FL, IA, MO, NV, NH, NC, OH. It’s doable, but cutting it close. My dream scenario is seeing networks call the election for Obama based on early returns in the ET zone...and then CA shockingly goes in McCain’s column late in the evening. Can you imagine the talking heads like Olbermann if that were to happen? They would be suicidal.
I prefer a fantasy where CA is split into two states, and the GOP has a shot at winning one of them. Of course, then Texas would have the largest delegation in the House. Hmmmmm
You guys read to many BS polls.
McCain could win NJ and maybe CA. People keep talking about CA.
Get out and volunteer and donate to McCain-Palin 2008.
Given the roller coaster market we have now, these 'traders' are liable to bet on the sun rising in the south.
Winner take all, Has to go in CA, or make SF and Hollyweird into a separate state
Add VA to that list... Obama may win it, but it shouldn’t be 4-to-1 odds as it is now.
RCP has Florida and Virginia leaning Obama at this time. This has been such a bizarre election though, full of surprises.
What was it at this point back in ‘00?
No data for 2000. InTrade was started in 2002.
On 10-11-2004 it was Bush 295, Kerry 243.
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