Posted on 11/03/2008 9:08:39 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 185 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 353 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 193.65 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/27/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/20/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/13/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/6/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/29/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
I guess I will just stay home tomorrow then..../sarc
My only regret is that I have but ONE vote to give for my country!!!
How right were they in 2004
Boy, are those intraders gonna be shocked on Election Night!
Well, I guess we might as well not show up with these numbers.
How can obama get all the votes kerry got? Add a million or two mad hillary voters to that spread and it’s LESS close than 04.....
Vote McCain/Palin!!!!!!!
“My only regret is that I have but ONE vote to give for my country!!! “
Join ACORN, and you can have two or more.
In 2004 they correctly predicted the results of every state.
I can only vote.
An easily manipulated bit of rubbish...
This particular analysis was pretty accurate from a statistical point of view in 2004. However, if you want to see how accurate it is, go look at the swing Bush got around 5PM or so on Election Day 2004. I think it had Bush in the lead in the AM, a 90/10 swing to Kerry around 2PM, and back to Bush at 7PM or so.
Just don’t go getting all wobbly....we’re not dead by any stretch of the imagination. FWIW, I was a nervous wreck in 2004, kind of right about 2006 (I knew the house was gone, but the Senate shocked me somewhat). This year just seems different...the numbers being thrown around are silly and it is almost like they need to make this race tight on purpose. If they are right, we’re doomed (this year), but all of this reeks of manufactured support for Obama.
Going to be a lot of “traders” who are going to lose a bundle.
if I wanted to see the obama poll cheerleaders I just need to look at Yahoo’s numbers.
Well, at about 7 p.m. Election Day they were right on the money. A few hours before, however, LOL.
In fact day traders are a lousy bunch to bet along with as 80% of them lose money. Most are basing their decision on faulty data spread by the msm and weighted by erroneous voter registrations via ACORN or like minded commies.
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