Posted on 10/09/2009 2:02:07 PM PDT by thackney
James Burkhard, IHS CERA's global oil director, is a self-described "peakist." But it's not what you might think.
Whereas most adherents to peak oil theory believe petroleum production has plateaued and will fall back down, driving up oil prices, Burkhard sees the situation somewhat in reverse, with global oil demand peaking and falling off as developed countries become more efficient with how they use oil and require relatively less of it. Not even the seemingly insatiable appetites of countries such as China and India can reverse the trend, he said in an interview Thursday.
"The long-term rate of oil demand growth is going to be slower than it had been, certainly during the 1950s and '60s," he told the Herald. "We're not saying oil prices are going to collapse to $20. . . . It's just that this expectation of $150, $200 or $250 oil, we don't subscribe to that."
Currently, members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development--in essence, the developed world--account for more than half of global oil consumption, while fast-developing China is still less than 10 per cent even after factoring in double-digit growth. Permanent structural shifts in the world's largest consumer will see North American consumption flatten and even fall over time, Burkhard argued in a presentation to an industry conference in Calgary.
That, in turn, will make for profound changes in the amount and source of American oil imports, as the United States picks and chooses its suppliers. Although Canadian oil -- especially oilsands -- is more expensive to produce, this country stands to be a prime beneficiary of the new state of affairs, he added. American energy security is enhanced, while Canadian oil gains market share.
"It doesn't threaten oilsands. The oilsands clearly have a role in supplying North America. As oilsands supply grows and U. S. demand flattens, that will mean fewer imports from other parts of the world and more from Canada. For North America, it's a win-win situation."
According to the U. S. government's Energy Information Administration, oil imports from Canada topped 81 million barrels in July, more than all the Persian Gulf countries combined and almost double Mexico's 41 million barrels. Saudi Arabia, the third-largest supplier, exported about 36 million barrels.
In May, IHS released a report on oilsands that concluded: "Development of the oilsands has made Canada the No. 1 foreign supplier of oil to the United States and has become an integral part of the deep economic partnership between the two countries."
In June, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers forecast oilsands production will top three million barrels a day sometime between 2020 and 2025, with the vast majority exported south. That means oilsands exports will effectively double even though U. S. demand essentially stays flat, confirmed Greg Stringham, the association's vice-president of markets and fiscal policy.
"What we're seeing is Venezuela moving to different export markets, signing deals with countries like China, and Mexican production declining," he said. "That's really leaving a void for Canada to fill. For us, it's more of a replacement and a change in that mix with more from Canada and less from Venezuela."
My question is there Peak Lithium that’ll caused by all the hybrid and electric cars?
Isn’t Saint Hussein trying to minimize the oil from Canada due to “environmental” reasons?
A better question: is there Peak Lithium that all these nutjobs need to take.
Peak Lithium is caused by sane people trying to cope with Obamanomics and the ObamaPeacePrize.
I suppose its possible that oil supply and demand might be one of those things where the projected end game gap never fully materializes - as has often happened with computer microprocessor speed and capacity, memory chip capacity and “disk” storage capacity - demand pushes R&D in new technology developments and technology developments keep pushing the end game further away.
In oil, and oil for energy, some of the biggest technology gains may yet come in technology that gets more power with less fuel, just as technology is already extending the life of existing sources and reaching ones thought unreachable, or not recoverable, in the past.
I agree that technology will continue to make changes with great impact.
On of those in increasing the percentage of recoverable oil from a field.
Traditional production leaves 80~85% of the oil in place. Current enhanced recovery methods produce about 30~35% of the oil. We could more than double the amount of producible oil with technology advances.
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