Posted on 10/22/2010 8:09:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Not a disastrous poll — there are still 12 percent undecided — but after news broke about Frank having to loan himself money, I was hoping/thinking it’d be within single digits. Not yet, and time’s running out:
“Barney Frank is holding a 12-point lead, and in a tough election year for Democrats that’s a comfortable lead going into the final two weeks of the election,” Eyewitness News political analyst Joe Fleming said. “It all depends on if Sean Bielat can grab some momentum to close that gap.”…
Both men are doing well among members of their respective parties, with Frank backed by 80 percent of Democrats and Bielat by 92 percent of Republicans. “Barney’s got a real strong base there, and that’s really propelling him right now” in the heavily Democratic 4th, Fleming said.
Among independents, Bielat is beating Frank by 44 percent to 35 percent, with another 17 percent still undecided. But Bielat will need to win unaffiliated voters by a much bigger margin in order to defeat Frank, Fleming said…
WPRI has offered to host a prime-time debate between Frank and Bielat focused on issues of concern to voters in Bristol County, Mass. Both campaigns originally agreed in principle to participate, but Frank’s campaign later changed its mind, citing scheduling issues.
The killer demographic: As usual, it’s the gender gap. Bielat’s actually beating Frank among men, 45.2/42.6; among women he trails … 54.7 to 30.2. Unless he can put a giant dent in that in the next 12 days, I don’t know how he gets to 51 percent.
Here’s the new Bielat ad from Ladd “Dale Peterson” Ehlinger; Ace was in the studio while it was being filmed, but that’s not him playing Barney — or so he claims. The concept is cute, but I’m not sure how much it does to advance the ball, especially with women. The middle section, with dancing and Frank soundbites and text rushing by, is hard to keep track of.
If Frank had to loan his campaign 200 large, it would be a lot closer than 12.
What did you expect in mASSachusetts?
Driving through Newton yesterday I was pleased to see more Bielat signs than Frank signs.
How can anybody vote for that fat corrupt little pervert?
The good news is that it should be 30. This bodes well for more competitive races.
When we were kids, part of the fun of the upcoming Christmas season was dreaming about what gifts we might receive. We might or might not actually receive those gifts . . . but still, it was fun imagining we would.
Part of the fun of the upcoming election is dreaming about what gifts we might receive. We might or might not actually receive those gifts . . . but still, it is fun imagining we will.
Same thing here with Barney and Sean. It is BEYOND FUN to imagine Barney is ousted by Sean Bielet. We can contribute to Sean, make calls, promote him, walk his district . . . he might or might not win. Whichever way it turns out . . . right now . . it is fun to dream!!!
For an incumbent, to be so far below 50%, (Frank at 44%) is not impressive at all.
Brown would be a huge help to Bielat. But he refuses to campaign for him - because Bielat criticized Brown’s vote on the Frank/Dodd FinReg bill.
RE: How can anybody vote for that fat corrupt little pervert?
ANS: People who PREFER fat corrupt little perverts.
As much as I hate to say it, I think Sean will lose. Being under 40% at this point, with a double-digit deficit is just a little too much to overcome. The Enthusiasm Factor may be good for about three points (like the Homefield Advantage in the NFL). But, we must not overrate it.
The good news is that Sean is now perfectly positioned to take Fwank out the next time around. He needs to stay in the game, do the rubber chicken circuit, network in Washington, and lather up the high dollar donors over the next two years.
My prediction: if Sean does the above and polls strongly in early to mid 2012, Fwank will decide to retire and enjoy life as an atrophied, old queen.
The potential of this poll being accurate this close to the election are about as likely as them supporting a Republican Candidate. The subsequent questions including who is to blame for the financial crisis are indicative of a serious over sampling of the far left. However, Frank’s district is shaped like the terminal end of a large intestine for a reason.
Ugh, female voters again. They really love them some Democrats.
among women he (Bielat) trails … 54.7 to 30.2.
Regards
“Both men” ?????????????
All depends on how redistricting goes. MA will probably lose 1 seat as a result of the 2010 census. Depending on how this race and MA-10, which was looking good until earlier this week when Perry was blasted with bad publicity about a bust gone bad when he was a cop, it's hard to know what the districts will look like.
A much better indication of the outcome is the response by the major parties. They have their own internal polls which are typically pretty good.
Both the Pubs and Rats are pouring money into the race. Some big time Rats are coming to town to stump for Fwank ... at this late stage when their time and money are especially precious. That speaks volumes.
In other words, reading the signs and signals, Bawney Boy is in big twouble.
“among women he [Bielat] trails … 54.7 to 30.2”
Please, someone PLEASE explain this to me.
Snot sucks. Yes, it was good that a “Republican” won the “Kennedy Seat”, but he still sucks; marginally better than the Maine Twins.
BTW, Bielat will win this. If signs are an indicator, Bielat has about a 10:1 advantage in the areas where Bwaney gets his $upport from.
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