Posted on 10/25/2010 12:29:17 PM PDT by WebFocus
Call this good news/bad news for Barney Frank in his fight to hold onto his job in Massachusetts’ 4th CD. The Boston Globe reports that Frank has a 13-point lead — but only gets 46% of the vote in a two-way race, 46-33. With a week to go before voting, Frank’s inability to get a majority may reveal a serious problem, and the Globe notes that enthusiasm may be that problem (via Jim Geraghty):
US Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Newton, leads his Republican challenger, Sean Bielat, by 13 percentage points among likely voters in the Fourth Congressional District. In the race for the open seat in the neighboring 10th District, Norfolk District Attorney William R. Keating leads state Representative Jeffrey D. Perry by 4 percentage points, within that survey’s margin of error.
Among those who say they are excited about Nov. 2, Bielat and Perry have double-digit leads, the polls indicate.
In both races, however, supporters of the Republican nominees say they are more excited about the election, which often correlates to higher turnout on Election Day, said Andrew E. Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The center conducted the polls for the Globe.
The numbers seem strangely low for this late in the cycle, especially for two-way races:
Among likely voters in their districts, Frank leads Bielat, 46 percent to 33 percent, while Keating leads Perry, 37 percent to 33 percent, the polls found. The surveys, of 385 likely voters in the Fourth District and 349 voters in the 10th, had margins of error of 5 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively. Both were taken from Oct. 17-22.
Are we to believe that 23% of all voters have no preference in the MA-10 race, with just eight days to go? That seems very, very unlikely. The fringe candidates only absorb 5% of the vote in this district, about what would be expected in the general election.
The same can be said to a lesser extent in the Frank/Bielat race in MA-04. At this point, a long-time incumbent with a profile as high as Frank’s should either be above 50% or updating his resumé. Coming in at 46% against a relative unknown in a district like MA-04 means big trouble for Frank, which is why he had to pump $200,000 of his own money into the race and try pitching himself as a nice guy.
As for the enthusiasm numbers, it shows that some voters are more “likely” than others. We’ll see who shows up to the polls on November 2nd.
Update: Legal Insurrection reminds us that the Boston Globe poll put Martha Coakley up 15 points over Scott Brown ten days before the election.
This means : A) His would-be supporters are unenthusiastic; B) Lots of undecided voters.
Barney Frank is the most well known politician in the state of Massachusetts and has been there too long. That he's polling at just 46% is a bad sign for him.
In Morris' experience, the undecideds move AGAINST the well known incumbent and FOR the challenger by an 80% margin most often.
IOW, Bawney has a lot to worry about.
ETA, this is an awfully small poll — Just 400 people as opposed to the sample Rasmussen takes ( more than double this ).
The Boston Globe had Coakley up 15...bout ten days before she got smoked.....not the best polling group
Frank is under 50%
“Why Barney Frank is in Danger of Losing”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2614231/posts
When was this poll conducted?
Two weeks ago Howie Carr mentioned that the Globe & UNH were sitting on a poll about this race - so this might be the one he was talking about or did they conduct a 2nd poll with tweaked questions?
The Boston Globe is owned by the New York Times, and is thus suspect. Suspect is likely the wrong word to use, better said, prejudiced in favor of Frank who is a Jewish homosexual like the publisher of the Times.
Well, Barney, then you have no worries.
Don't sweat the 2nd, dude, stay home!
You can trust the Globe...they nailed that Brown/Croakley race...
Yes, the same social circles...so they must have met many times before...a glance...across a crowded room...
The Government just put a number on bailing out Fannie and Freddie at 363 Billion. He should run that ad all this week.
"He's dug in like an Alabama tick."
Bawney has himself an almost perfect little niche. He is a Liberal Dem in Newton, MA...a very small district which has been a 80% Liberal Dem constituency over the years.
He got himself on some very powerful committees and worked the system perfectly to line his pockets with plenty of cash to keep getting re-elected.
I would love nothing more than to see him sent packing but I don't believe it will happen in my lifetime.
Poll end date: January 13, 2010,
Poll result: Coakley(49) ahead of Brown(41) by 8.
Election date: January 19, 2010 (just 6 days later)
Election result: Coakley (47) lost to Brown(52) by 5 (the poll had Brown under-polled by 11, and Coakley over-polled by 2).
Poll end date: October 22, 2010,
Poll result: Frank(46) ahead of Bielat(33) by 13.
Election date: November 2, 2010 (11 days after the poll)
Possible Election result: Frank(44) tied with Bielat(44) (if this poll also has Bielat under-polled by 11, and Frank over-polled by 2).
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