Roubini Says “Perfect Storm” May Clobber Global Economy

The Daily Ticker - Yahoo Finance ^ | 13 June 2011 | Henry Blodget

[edpc]

"Everybody's kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest."

Can't argue with the first part, though I think the US has the unique capacity to be self-sufficient and recover under strong leadership and with the proper economic policies.

[Lurker]

though I think the US has the unique capacity to be self-sufficient and recover under strong leadership and with the proper economic policies.

So we're basically screwed then. Right?

[DManA]

His metaphor gets it backwards. It will take a gentle puff and the house of cards collapses - unleashing a perfect storm.

[RexBeach]

OK, so this guy predicted a lot of stuff correctly. He now says there’s a 15% chance of another recession.

Well, that must mean that’s there’s an 85% chance against that happening.

BTW, Dr. Roubini, after all this happened, said he made no changes at all to HIS portfolio. Says he’s a “long term” investor.

Huh?

[RexBeach]

OK, so this guy predicted a lot of stuff correctly. He now says there’s a 15% chance of another recession.

Well, that must mean that’s there’s an 85% chance against that happening.

BTW, Dr. Roubini, after all this happened, said he made no changes at all to HIS portfolio. Says he’s a “long term” investor.

Huh?

[ClearCase_guy]

Yeah. I think that recovery is possible but not at all likely.

[edpc]

In the short term, definitely.

[Terry Mross]

I wish I could understand why silver is dropping like a rock. Even when the DOW goes down.

[pallis]

Thank goodness the bailout, stimulus and propping up the stock market has saved us. The economy is booming. Everyone who wants a job, has a job, and Obama will stop global warming, so chill out. The future is bright.

[BuffaloJack]

What utter BS. Our planet and our atmosphere can moderate almost anything that comes our way. The earth will be fine.

[sickoflibs]

RE :”NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini has seized the headlines again this morning, warning that a “perfect storm” of economic disasters may smash the global economy in 2013. Roubini’s perfect storm consists of four factors:
-The U.S.’s basket-case of an economy and budget deficit,
-A potential slowdown in China,
-European debt restructuring and
-Stagnation in Japan.
Roubini says there's a one-in-three chance that these factors will clobber growth in 2013.
Now, that sounds terrifying, but it all means there's a two-in-three chance that everything will be okay. (Roubini’s other two possible scenarios are “anemic growth” and “accelerating growth.”)”
Roubini Says “Perfect Storm” May Clobber Global Economy By Henry Blodget | Daily Ticker

Anybody see anything good on the horizon? (Besides this hurting Obama in 2012?) Look at his #1 above. If we continue to run deficits we are screwed, if we cut the deficit we are screwed (at least short term) which is why they never do it.

About 5 years ago Harry Dent predicted that we have a long term disaster coming because Boomers are now in a 'saving for retirement mode' and will only reduce their consumer and housing spending as time goes on, then moving onto entitlements. Details below:

From 2006 :
WN: You predict this new stock-market bubble will burst in late 2010, followed by a long decline. Are we talking about something like the 1970s or more of a cataclysmic downturn like the Great Depression?
Dent: I'd say it's going to be in between. It won't be as extreme as the Great Depression. But it will be worse than the ‘70s downturn, and I think it will be worse than what Japan saw from 1990 to 2003. Maybe we'll see unemployment at 15 percent, give or take. The worst part of it is you're going to see deflationary trends in prices from a shrinking work force. Deflation is the enemy of asset prices. You've got to remember that in the ‘70s, while the Bob Hope generation was declining in their spending, you had a bigger generation coming behind them entering the work force and picking up some of the slack. Now you've got a smaller generation following the largest generation in history. So it makes the downward trend even more pronounced.
The New Market Bubble Theory( WN/Harry Dent 01.18.06 )

[Former Proud Canadian]

Ummm, there are more people selling then buying?

[Marine_Uncle]

The cruel realities of it all. So what will the Feds do. Through another US dollar devaluation tactic upon us and claim how the next Quantitative Easing by printing more money to buy our debt will somehow be our savior.
Idiots leading idiots, the lame and the blind over the cliff.

[Marine_Uncle]

I should have added, beyond all the countries listed as potential real big loosers in this all, what do we do if China literally has a big melt down, due to no place to sell any of their goods. I think we are close to having the age old adage "the gig is up", breathing down our necks.
I often hesitate to caution folks that as big a problem we have with the entitlement programs, there are bigger things on the horizon that can actually sink the ship.

[Professional]

I didn’t realize the market had gone down enough to bring out Roubini yet?

[WashingtonSource]

bump

[sickoflibs]

RE :”I should have added, beyond all the countries listed as potential real big loosers in this all, what do we do if China literally has a big melt down, due to no place to sell any of their goods. I think we are close to having the age old adage “the gig is up”, breathing down our necks.”

I am thinking that our only possible future is going to have to be able to export like Germany does. That is going to be a tough road and those that claim that we can just wall ourselves off like 1800s Japan are just dreaming of a free lunch.

As Harry Dent put it our days major consuming are over because of the retiring baby boomers will be savers not consumers even before they retire. One reason we could have the housing bubble was massive immigration buying housing, but the only thing sustaining that was foreign suckers buying our home loans.

I started that Austrian economics ping list in late 2008 because at that time Peter Schiff was the only one telling us the unpleasant truth and it resonated with many freepers. The two parties just play the same political games to get elected the next cycle.

[LomanBill]

[(The USSR spent itself into bankruptcy and collapsed -- and aren't we on the same path now?)]

Exhibit A - about a half mile from the Air Force Academy's South Gate:



Unfinished and bankrupt. Looking the same for the last 3 years.

Welcome to the Kleptocracy.

[21twelve]

I remember Denver had many of those buildings back in the oil crash of 1983 or so. Of course that was one industry, and not caused by a wanton destruction of our own government.

[LomanBill]

[ Of course that was one industry, and not caused by a wanton destruction of our own government.]

And of course that was also before we defeated the Soviets, and then stupidly became them.