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Answering Long-standing Questions about Enigmatic Little Ice Age
Scientific Computing ^ | 2/3/2013

Posted on 02/03/2012 9:32:32 AM PST by null and void

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Medieval SUVs...
1 posted on 02/03/2012 9:32:36 AM PST by null and void
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To: SunkenCiv

GGG ping worthy?


2 posted on 02/03/2012 9:33:47 AM PST by null and void (Day 1110 of America's ObamaVacation from reality [Heroes aren't made, Frank, they're cornered...])
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To: null and void

> Medieval SUVs...
Do you mean Clydesdale horses?
They’d certainly be bigger than the average horse.


3 posted on 02/03/2012 9:39:04 AM PST by BuffaloJack (Defeat Obama. End Obama's War On Freedom.)
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To: null and void
The researchers set the solar radiation at a constant level in the climate models

Which is absolute crap. The Chineese have been recording sunspots for a thousand years. Persian and Indian astronomers also have records going back hundreds of years. And there was a long dry spell called the Maunder minimum. It lasted from 1645 to 1715.

So called 'climate scientists' are outright liars.

/johnny

4 posted on 02/03/2012 9:42:08 AM PST by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: BuffaloJack
Clydesdale is just one brand of Heavy Horse...


5 posted on 02/03/2012 9:43:49 AM PST by null and void (Day 1110 of America's ObamaVacation from reality [Heroes aren't made, Frank, they're cornered...])
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To: JRandomFreeper

I was wondering if these guys were trying to take the position that the documented drop in solar activity during the Maunder Minimum had no effect on earth’s climate...


6 posted on 02/03/2012 9:48:36 AM PST by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: null and void

7 posted on 02/03/2012 9:50:41 AM PST by GraceG
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To: BuffaloJack

They also have a far large throughput, including gaseous emissions.


8 posted on 02/03/2012 9:54:52 AM PST by libstripper
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To: BuffaloJack

They also have a far large throughput, including gaseous emissions.


9 posted on 02/03/2012 9:54:57 AM PST by libstripper
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To: null and void

If the earth has not been this warm for 2,000 and the mini ice age came in between it does not take a rocket science to figure out global tempertures rise and fall naturally. I tend now not to believe anything from the climate science computer geeks that receive grant money to make climate computer projections. It’s to tempting to do the grantors bidding to keep one’s job. In 2012 after obama’s defeat we should make sure we go after the grant fraud, EPA fraud that the socialist democrats commited in funding these phoney studies.


10 posted on 02/03/2012 9:58:00 AM PST by spawn44
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To: null and void

It’s important (to progressives/liberals) to peg the cause of the little ice age on volcanic emissions rather than solar radiation because AGW cannot be supported otherwise.


11 posted on 02/03/2012 10:26:28 AM PST by RockyMtnMan
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To: null and void
It seems to me that this article is an attempt to discredit the fairly strong correlation between solar activity and the little ice-age. The University of Colorado, Boulder is an alarmist hot-spot.

At first the alarmists tried to ignore both the little ice age and the medieval warm period that came before it. That didn't work too well for them. Now they are coming up with other explanations that downplay the sun's role and emphasize air pollution’s role. To them a volcano IS mother nature's equivalent to SUV’s.

If you will notice this “theory” is once again based largely on computer models that they manipulated to get the results they wanted. The article starts off with, “the Little Ice Age began abruptly between A.D. 1275 and 1300, triggered by repeated, explosive volcanism and sustained by a self-perpetuating sea ice-ocean feedback system”. Then they get a little more specific, “the Little Ice Age was caused by an unusual, 50-year-long episode of four massive tropical volcanic eruptions.” Never mind that the previous statement said that the Little Ice Age began abruptly between A.D. 1275 and 1300 which is a 25 year period.

Then we learn that, “This is the first time anyone has clearly identified the specific onset of the cold times marking the start of the Little Ice Age,”. Umm, yeah right... I guess if you ignore textbooks written fifty years ago that might be true. Since they claim to be the first, I would like to know exactly which “four massive tropical volcanic eruptions” triggered The Little Ice Age.

Of course it gets back to, “Our simulations showed that the volcanic eruptions may have had a profound cooling effect”. I think that most people are aware that volcanic dust in the atmosphere does appear to have a cooling effect on the climate, however it is generally thought that this effect is short-lived because the excess dust generally settles out within a year or two at most. If you ignore the effects of gravity and precipitation in your computer models I suppose that this phenomena could be drawn out far longer than that.

“The team used the NCAR-based Community Climate System Model to test the effects of volcanic cooling on Arctic sea ice extent and mass.” I would be curious if the physical evidence for the massiveness and timing of the four tropical volcanoes is in the historical record or if the evidence is derived from the study’s own computer models. Given the past actions of these particular researchers I would guess that physical observations and evidence played a far smaller role than did the reliance on the all-knowing computer model.

12 posted on 02/03/2012 10:40:14 AM PST by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
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To: fireman15

“Then they get a little more specific, “the Little Ice Age was caused by an unusual, 50-year-long episode of four massive tropical volcanic eruptions.”

I wonder where the massive eruptions were. All in Iceland?


13 posted on 02/03/2012 11:09:24 AM PST by opbuzz (Right way, wrong way, Marine way)
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To: opbuzz
I wonder where the massive eruptions were. All in Iceland?

All in tropical Iceland...

14 posted on 02/03/2012 11:26:51 AM PST by null and void (Day 1110 of America's ObamaVacation from reality [Heroes aren't made, Frank, they're cornered...])
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To: null and void

1150 A.D. - Quilotoa, Ecuador Erupts; Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) = 6

1150 A.D. Little Ice Age (First Peak) Begins

1259 A.D. - Very large eruption, Origin Unknown. Twice the size of the Mt.Tambora eruption in 1815 A.D. - this would make a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) = 8 or more; possibly qualifying as a Super Volcanic Eruption.

Antarctica ice core data; Norwegian tree rings; England and Europe - numerous references to dark skies and unseasonable cold, one obscure reference to pillar of fire in western sky; Chinese reference to pillar of fire in southern sky; Indonesian description - near Krakatau - magma rose in a miles wide column into the troposphere lasting for some days before subsiding, according to refferences.

1452 A.D. - Kuwae, Vanuatu, New Hebrides Arc Erupts; Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) = 6.

1460 A.D. - Little Ice Age (First Peak) Ends


15 posted on 02/03/2012 11:39:23 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
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To: opbuzz

See my post 15


16 posted on 02/03/2012 11:41:10 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
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To: PIF
So you list a large volcano in 1150, then in 1259, then one in 1452. No one is disputing that there were no volcanoes between 1150 and 1452. There have been “massive” volcanic eruptions that I can think of off the top of my head that have most likely coincided with a drop in temperatures for a period of time afterward.

I witnessed the Mt. St Helen's eruption; it looked pretty massive to me. Which four “massive” tropical volcanoes which took place in a 50 year period that supposedly triggered the little ice age are they referring to in the study? Are they referring to actual events or events that they believe happened because of their simulation results? The article does not make it clear and it certainly makes no reference to the three events you mention that were spread over a 300 year period not a "50 year" period.

17 posted on 02/03/2012 12:03:54 PM PST by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
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To: PIF
Thank you for your posts by the way. I am sure that you noticed also that the study’s time-line does not coincide very well with yours. Yours is based on historical events not computer modeled events.
18 posted on 02/03/2012 12:13:53 PM PST by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
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To: null and void

ping


19 posted on 02/03/2012 2:07:56 PM PST by BrandtMichaels
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To: fireman15

Yours is based on historical events not computer modeled events.

Don’t’cha just hate it when historical events contradict the reality of computer models?


20 posted on 02/04/2012 4:44:28 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now it is your turn ...)
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