Answering Long-standing Questions about Enigmatic Little Ice Age

Scientific Computing ^ | 2/3/2013

[PIF]

I witnessed the Mt. St Helen's eruption

—

You and me both. I was in Port Townsend WA. and we heard it blow from there. Fortunately the prevailing winds did not bring any ash our way.

Be it as it may, St Helens was a small eruption with a modest VEI of 5.

The verifiable eruptions listed are posted at Global Volcanism Program, Volcanoes of the World, Large Holocene Eruptions - http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/largeeruptions.cfm

“Massive” in volcano speak is anything above a VEI of 6. St Helens at VEI 5 was a hicup or just large. Keep in mind that a super volcano eruption is anything with a VEI of 9 or above.

I have no idea what the “study” volcanoes are. I only posted the known eruptions around that time which would be considered “massive” - draw your own conclusions.

That the “study” centers around a 50 yr period for an event (LIA), which took place over hundreds of years, leaves one wondering just what the point was. I smell a need for more grant money ...

[SunkenCiv]

The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850 by Brian M. Fagan Paperback	Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Nino and the Fate of Civilizations by Brian M. Fagan	The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization by Brian M. Fagan

[SunkenCiv]

Nice topic! Thanks null and void.

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[SunkenCiv]

GGG managers are SunkenCiv, StayAt HomeMother & Ernest_at_the_Beach	join list or digest view topics view or post blog bookmark post a topic subscribe
Thanks null and void, and the answer's, definitely. :') To all -- please ping me to other topics which are appropriate for the GGG list.

[bert]

——there is little consensus———

It is clear to me that the onset caused massive disruption of human life in North America. The 1275 -1300 dating corresponds to the massive change in the South west and Cahokia.

The Anasazi moved from Aztec hundreds of miles south ti Paquim and split into the present Pueblo and Hopi settlements. Simultaneously, Cahokia fell apart and settlements south developed.

What ever it was that caused the chang turned human culture upside down and produced radical change in the way life was lived.

[wildbill]

If I recall correctly from a TV show on Discovery or Green Planet, there’s a lab in Scandinavia that has done groundbreaking work collecting sample cores of tree rings from all over the world and relating the rings to worldwide climate changes and known events.

[1010RD]

More reading professor? PFL, I barely have time to read everything I want to as it is.

[PapaBear3625]

The researchers set the solar radiation at a constant level in the climate models

Sure looks constant to me:

Understanding Solar Indices

[blam]

"If I recall correctly from a TV show on Discovery or Green Planet, there’s a lab in Scandinavia that has done groundbreaking work collecting sample cores of tree rings from all over the world and relating the rings to worldwide climate changes and known events. "

It's probably this guy.

A controversy over Baillie's data. See here:

Climate Sceptic Wins Landmark Data Victory 'For Price Of A Stamp'

"Belfast ecologist forced to hand over tree-ring data describes order from information commission as a 'staggering injustice'

[PapaBear3625]

I’ve long wondered if there was any sort of coupling mechanism between the Sun’s and Earth’s magnetic fields, where variations in the solar field could trigger volcanoes or earthquakes.

[blam]

"What ever it was that caused the chang turned human culture upside down and produced radical change in the way life was lived."

It is said that 250,000 'took to the sea' at the end of the Shang Dynasty.
I've often wondered because this is about the same time that the Olmec appears (very advanced) in Mexico. Maybe some of those Shang survivors?

The Olmecs An The Shang

[blam]

Professor Mike Baillie's tree ring data indicate that there were worldwide cooling events at these dates:

* 3195BC

* 2354BC

* 1628BC (Exodus?)

* 1159BC

* 207BC

* 44BC

* 540AD (The Dark Ages)
(The Dark Ages: Were They Darker Than We Imagined?)

[wildbill]

Thanks for the info. You may be right that the guy was Irish instead of Scandinavian.

I knew it was a small country and I was within a few hundred miles of being right on target. :-)

I am absolutely amazed and delighted on a daily basis by how much information our Freepers like yourself have at their fingertips.

Me, I just like to read and poke fun at accepted ‘scientific truths’ and shibboleths.

[bert]

-——What ever it was that caused the chang ——

This is the way things actually get screwed up as the result of poor or miscommunication. I left off the “e”..... I meant to say change. : )

The unintended result was to shift the focus from the North American Indians to something completely different. I read the book you recommended on The Voyages of the Pyramid Builders. Now I guess you are pointing me onward in a more specific direction.

Back in October I visited Cahokia where a very large truncated pyramid is located. The place fell apart during the period noted in this article. Cahokia was contemporary with the Anasazi and the Arizona Hohokam. At the time noted, Cahokia was larger than many European cities especially London

I have been Reading several of the books by Stephen Lekson, especially The History of the Ancient Southwest. He says..... everybody knew everything, distance was not a problem. What he means is that all the various populations knew of the others and were actively involved in trade and the distance covered to trade was not a problem.

Much later, the Spanish wanted to find Eldorado. A western Mexico Indian took them to the pueblos and they were disappointed.He led them on and they killed them in Kansas because they no longer believed him. They had traveled too far. He was surely bound for the long gone Cahokia.

[blam]

"Back in October I visited Cahokia where a very large truncated pyramid is located. The place fell apart during the period noted in this article. Cahokia was contemporary with the Anasazi and the Arizona Hohokam. "

A decent book about this area:

The Zuni Enigma

[fireman15]

“St Helens was a small eruption with a modest VEI of 5.”

I know that St. Helens was not a huge eruption compared to other volcanic events throughout history. It was still an impressive reminder of the awesome power of nature. I was climbing it with a group of friends just a couple of years before. The day it blew up I was at some friends house that had a perfect view of the entire North Western side of the mountain.

I don't doubt at all that volcanic activity can have a profound effect on the climate for a few years at the least. Studying volcanic activity's influence on the climate may actually be worth a little grant money? The thing that makes me uneasy about this particular study is the cast of characters involved, the study’s reliance on a computer model and at least in this article... the lack of documentation as to which historically documented events that they are referring to, and as you note the time-line that they are referring to.

I also am suspicious of any theory that has simple explanations about a system as complicated as the world's climate.

My wife and I own a small airplane. Many years ago we were flying back from California and we ran into bad weather. We had both been feeling poorly and got off to a slow start. We also had a headwind. In Northern California we found ourselves late at night between two layers of clouds over mountains with thunderstorm activity, heavy rain, turbulence and very poor visibility.

By the time we made it down to where we were flying above I-5 just North of Grants Pass, my wife had become extremely rattled. We were a few hundred feet over the freeway and still getting bounced around pretty severely. It was pitch black, the heavy rain was pelting the windscreen and we could see almost nothing. To top it off we were running low on fuel. She started crying and sobbing that she would rather be giving birth again. It was at that point that I realized at a visceral level that it is generally not one thing that causes a pilot to lose control of his / her airplane... it is all of the factors combined.

I am suspicious of simple explanations for complex systems. Volcanic activity may very well have been a contributor to the start of the Little Ice Age, but I think trying to ignore solar activity and other factors is unwise and most likely motivated by an alarmist agenda and not good science.

[Squawk 8888]

I can’t imagine a connection. My understanding is that the main driver for tectonic activity is lunar tides.

[SunkenCiv]

:’) I’ve got two of ‘em, have even read one of them. :’)

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks blam, looks like a topic or two could be built from those.

[ApplegateRanch]

Could, may have, estimates, might, AND and from sea ice climate model simulations AND the Little Ice Age likely would have occurred without decreased summer solar radiation at the time. “Estimates of the sun’s variability over time are getting smaller, it’s now thought by some scientists to have varied little more in the last millennia than during a standard 11-year solar cycle,” he said..

Lots of speculation; plenty of scientification, but very little, if any, science.

50-year-long episode of four massive tropical volcanic eruptions.

Which volcanoes, where? Curious minds would like to know.