Election May Well Come Down to Colorado

RCP/Pittsburgh Tribune ^ | 10/14/12 | Selena Zito

[marktwain]

Obama voters from 2008 are mostly disinterested-that seems to be a nationwide trend, not just in CO. If 1/3 of them vote for Romney and another 1/3 stay home this will be a beatdown.

I think that if just 1/16 vote for Romney and 1/16 stay home, Romney wins with a mandate. That would be a net change of 3/16 or 18.75% of the Democrat vote, or a 10% shift in the overall vote. 46.2% for Obama, 48.6% for Romney.

It does not add up to a hundred because it assumes the same turnout as 2008, in the same proportion. That is very unlikely. Turnout should be higher for Romney than it was for McCain in 2008.