Skip to comments.MSNBC/WSJ/Marist Poll: Romney Tied in Colorado, Close in Nevada
Posted on 10/25/2012 3:47:07 PM PDT by Arthurio
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Even Marist seems to be coming along.
This, on its face, is good news for Romney.
NBC/Marist has been one of the most Obama friendly pollsters all cycle.
Why does the WSJ associate with these leftwing polling outfits? Couldn’t they find anyone with a calculator?
Nevada isn’t looking good for us, imo. We have to win OH or WI.
I think CO and NH and probably IA as well go Romney.
The polls are scrambling to get in line with reality. They have skewed as much as they could, but, hey, they will still have to peddle their polls when Obama festers on the scrap heap of history.
This means tied in NV and 3-4% lead in CO.
Yep you’re right. Marist has turned the worm. Where’s steelfish?
Ras has O up by 3 in NV as well. This is right in line. He may be closing in, but the question is does he have enough time to move ahead and not just cut into Obama’s lead?
Other than the editorial page, the WSJ is just another main stream mediot outlet. They cover a particular news niche, but their reports can be just as biased and the NY Times.
If the GOP is tied with anything involving the MSNBC folks...
When you put in real actual voter turnout using a model of 2010 or 2004, Romney is going to make everyone at MSNBC start crying.
NV voted for the winning president every time since 1980. What would drive them off course this time?
Their called Mexicans.
In 2008, early voting stats in NV had a D vs R ratio of 51.5% of 31.3%. This year, its been 47.3% to 35.9%. A 20.2% difference has shrunk to 11.4%. Obama won in 2008 by 12.5%. While NV is not out of Romneys reach, it appears to be tilting Obama for 2012. Romney is counting on independent voters to provide his margin of victory.
2012 NV early voting stats:
2008 NV early voting stats:
These state polls are all having to play catchup right now. Oct.3 really changed things in a way that continues until now. The best display this I’ve found thus far is:
I can’t reproduce this favorable-unfavorable chart on the thread. You’ll have to visit it. Hover your pointer to see more info about any particular point.
Notice that the movement of Romney has not yet plateaued, and until it does all the polls are behind the curve.
I think that a D/R/I model based on 2010 would be just nuts. Instead, something about halfway between that and 2008 is likely reasonable.
Though the “enthusiasm” of the D voters is definitely lower than 4yr ago, their turnout machine is clearly getting a fair number of -bama voters to early voting, so even though they are “more sporadic” and “less reliable” (CBS Radio news terms on story just now) that machine is cranking and producing.
Meanwhile, the Tea Party has not gone away, either in raison d’etre, numbers, or enthusiasm. They will turn up, both to vote and to crank the GOP machine. Since TP was non-existent (or even negative) in ‘08, the gap will be greatly narrowed.
Halfway seems to be a reasonable place to be, so close to a completely balanced 33/33/33 mix seem about to me at this time, adjusted for each state’s tendency. Since Romney is easily winning the indy’s, that yields an easy win for him in most states.
Oh- one more thing: I suspect that there are many more people falsely stating “I’m voting for Obama” than those who are falsely telling pollsters “I’m voting for Romney”. I believe that has been reflected over and over again in crosstabs via “I’m conservative and voting for -bama” and “I’m Republican and voting for -bama”. That would give a systematic (though small) false blip up for him.
The links I provided appear to show that they do. For one thing, D+R in both 2008 and 2012 don't add up to 100%.
I got news for MSNBC: It is not tied here in Colorado. Mitt is going to win, and comfortably
“NV voted for the winning president every time since 1980. What would drive them off course this time?”
Reply #13 had it right.
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