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Battleground Tracking Poll: Dead heat (The potentially more important number is...)
Politico ^ | 11/6/12 | James Hohmann

Posted on 11/06/2012 5:19:38 AM PST by GLDNGUN

The potentially more important number is a combination nationally of those who have already voted and those who call themselves “extremely likely” to vote. Romney leads this group by three percent, 51 percent to 48 percent.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election
Go Mitt and God Bless the USA!
1 posted on 11/06/2012 5:19:50 AM PST by GLDNGUN
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To: GLDNGUN

I think the more potent number is Romney leading indies by 15.....how the hell did they get a tie with Romney up 15 with inds.


2 posted on 11/06/2012 5:21:59 AM PST by sunmars
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To: GLDNGUN

It’s amazing to watch the MSM this morning.

Romney is (at worst) tied nationally, if not with a slight edge, and leading amongst Indies by double digits, enthusiasm, etc. Yet all I hear this morning is how Obama has the edge.

They are a joke.

I still say Romney, 52-47.


3 posted on 11/06/2012 5:24:36 AM PST by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
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To: sunmars

They are deluding themselves.
Up until this election, it was all about the independents.
“40% Rep, 40% dem, 20% independents” has been the rule of thumb, up until this election.

It just seems that all the indicators they’ve previously used have been thrown out because they don’t favor the “John the Baptist of the Anti-Christ”.


4 posted on 11/06/2012 5:27:06 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: GLDNGUN

I read that Battleground poll. Essentially bad news all around on questions they couldn’t manipulate, like popularity, approval on the economy, etc. All came out bad for Obama.

But hey - he’s tied and gonna win! The only thing they could manipulate to get the answer they want is the turnout model.


5 posted on 11/06/2012 5:29:07 AM PST by IamConservative (The soul of my lifes journey is Liberty!)
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To: IamConservative

I won’t watch MSM until it looks like a total Romney victory then DVR MSNBC


6 posted on 11/06/2012 5:34:34 AM PST by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: GLDNGUN




Free Image Hosting





7 posted on 11/06/2012 5:37:51 AM PST by patriot08 (TEXAS GAL- born and bred and proud of it!)
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To: GLDNGUN

Buried deep is this tidbit - 50% of respondents voted Obama in 2008, 40% McCain.


8 posted on 11/06/2012 5:43:48 AM PST by mcjordansc
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To: GLDNGUN
The IBD/TIPP poll had Obama up by 1 point. Which may sound like bad news, but they had Obama up by 3-4 points before Hurricane Sandy and they are using the ridiculous 2008 turnout model of D+7. Even if turnout ends up being D+3 which would still be wildly optimistic for the democrats (Ras said yesterday the electorate is +6R). Then Romney wins by a comfortable margin.
9 posted on 11/06/2012 5:47:39 AM PST by apillar
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To: IamConservative

I just returned from voting with my younger son. It was very crowded compared to my past experience (25 years) with that precinct. Still, the wait was under a half hour.

BTW, it’s raining and chilly in Atlanta this morning.

I few weeks ago I asked my FRiends a question to which I received no response. So, I’ll try again: What’s up with the report, largely buried in the press, that only nine percent of folks contacted by pollsters agree to participate in the poll? Seems to me that situation must result in an over-sampling of democrats. But, maybe a method exists to compensate for that low number. Thoughts?


10 posted on 11/06/2012 5:49:17 AM PST by BIV (typical white person)
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To: nhwingut

You have to ignore the Tea Party affect and pretend the Blacks and Youts are going to save the day.

Pray for America


11 posted on 11/06/2012 5:56:41 AM PST by bray (Nov 6, tell Obama to Stand Down!)
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To: GLDNGUN

All the polls are in CYA mode. If they project a clear Romney win they fear being politically incorrect; if they project a clear Obama win but are wrong they lose credibility. Sure, there’s some data rigging going on because whoever’s funding a poll gets the results they want. Pic of Obama yesterday remind of Carter in 80 on Monday -tired, flat, crying. Probably Obama’s internal polls told him days ago that it’s over.


12 posted on 11/06/2012 6:26:38 AM PST by Repulican Donkey
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To: Repulican Donkey
...if they project a clear Obama win but are wrong they lose credibility.

In past elections, I think it was true that pollsters moved to more realistic results in the last days to preserve their credibility. I've concluded that this election is different. I really believe that it is more important to them to have their preferred candidate win than to cling to any semblance of credibility. They figure, I think, that all will be forgotten in a year or two anyway.
13 posted on 11/06/2012 6:44:47 AM PST by AaronInCarolina
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To: BIV
What’s up with the report, largely buried in the press, that only nine percent of folks contacted by pollsters agree to participate in the poll? Seems to me that situation must result in an over-sampling of democrats. But, maybe a method exists to compensate for that low number. Thoughts?

That has been Iowahawk's message all season. All polls are garbage because of low response rate. I think the "method" you mention to compensate is the special sauce each pollster puts in their poll. Ironically, it seems the most irrelevant piece of information in a poll is the question: "Who are you voting for?"

14 posted on 11/06/2012 7:36:07 AM PST by IamConservative (The soul of my lifes journey is Liberty!)
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