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Why Most Postmortems of Virginia’s Gubernatorial Race Are Wrong
Roll Call Rothenblog ^ | 11/11/13 | Stu Rothenberg

Posted on 11/13/2013 5:52:03 AM PST by 1010RD

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To: 1010RD

I think a lot of republicans were really mad that the VA GOP gave them a choice between Romney and Ron Paul in the presidential primary. I recall many folks saying that was the last straw for them.

FReegards


21 posted on 11/13/2013 6:34:53 AM PST by Ransomed
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To: 1010RD

The rats poured 20 million into terry’s coronation... voter intimidation, voter fraud, stealing votes, buying votes and a republican party aligned with terry and the rats... and their absolute abandonment of Cuch... this is what cost Cuch a Victory.


22 posted on 11/13/2013 6:37:22 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS! BETTER DEAD THAN RED!)
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To: 1010RD

These “wealthy” Virginians for McAwful are the U.S. government employees surrounding D.C.


23 posted on 11/13/2013 6:37:41 AM PST by Theodore R. (The grand pooh-bahs are flirting with Christie, but it's Jebbie's turn!" to LOSE!)
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To: JackOfVA
Lack of money to counter Obama/Romney strategy of identifying Kooch as evil early.

The govt. shutdown did affect NoVa, and Kooch.

Third party probably didn't help, but I did hear mixed results. Knowing now that the fake libertarian was bought and paid by liberals tells me his intention (if not result) was to hurt Kucinelli.

24 posted on 11/13/2013 6:38:30 AM PST by chiller (NBCNews et al is in the tank and should be embarrassed)
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To: JackOfVA

My take hasn’t changed. The GOPe made little effort to GOTV of their country club GOPer set. That’s why KC lost. KC wasn’t their guy and they didn’t have much desire to carrying him over the finish line.

What I find interesting is that the VA gov race was much more important to the Dems than the GOP. That’s why they won.


25 posted on 11/13/2013 6:39:01 AM PST by lodi90
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To: lodi90

The GOP basically admits they’d rather have a Democrat win than a Tea Partier.


26 posted on 11/13/2013 6:40:38 AM PST by dfwgator (Fire Muschamp.)
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To: 1010RD

OK, so the voters demography turn out seemed to favor Republicans.

Yet the article barely mentioned if the votes Cuccinelli supposedly lost went to the libertarian candidate. Is there a demography break-down of what the 3rd candidate attracted?


27 posted on 11/13/2013 6:43:43 AM PST by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = CCCP; JournOList + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey!)
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To: Jack Hammer

Black thugs outside white polling places? Seriously?


28 posted on 11/13/2013 6:47:52 AM PST by Mr. Lucky
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To: Sir Napsalot; All

Another thing I should point out. This article relied heavily (if not solely) on the exit poll numbers.

Even if (bold) we assume the exit poll numbers are correct, this does not account for the ‘unseen’ votes Democrats almost always get.

To base your next campaign strategy on the faulty analysis is risky.


29 posted on 11/13/2013 7:05:35 AM PST by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = CCCP; JournOList + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey!)
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To: 1010RD

As far as I could discern, Cucinelli lost because he was so busy appealing to the base that he failed to sell his ideas to the center. The ads I saw were terrible. Frankly, I put this loss at the feet of the DC consulting class, which is RINO to the core, IOW, it was a classic RINO backstabbing, as they did to any number of TEA Party candidates. The GOPe will not suffer challenge, because their status is more important to them than are the ideas the Party supposedly exists to advance.


30 posted on 11/13/2013 7:12:46 AM PST by Carry_Okie ("Single payer" is Medicaid for all; they'll pull the sheet over your head when you're done.)
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To: Sir Napsalot

Even if (bold) we assume the exit poll numbers are correct, this does not account for the ‘unseen’ votes Democrats almost always get.


I don’t think you have to fall back on anything nefarious here.

The bottom line is the Dems made this race a priority and the RNC/RGA did not. In a close race that is enough to win. The Dems did what they frequently do. Pull a lousy candidate over the finish line and into the winners circle. Until the GOP has a similar mindset they will continue to lose many winnable contests.


31 posted on 11/13/2013 7:14:27 AM PST by lodi90
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To: JackOfVA

I’ve read the GOP was very very stingy on the funds for him.


32 posted on 11/13/2013 7:21:59 AM PST by esoxmagnum ( Some hide in bunkers when there is trouble, others run towards the trouble.)
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To: cicero2k

yes... third party = Dem win


33 posted on 11/13/2013 8:07:01 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!)
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To: SomeCallMeTim
The exit polling indicated that the Libertarian vote would not have gone to Cuccinelli.
34 posted on 11/13/2013 8:16:20 AM PST by riverdawg
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To: 1010RD

The GOP was the reason, they did nothing to counter the former clintoon goon...


35 posted on 11/13/2013 8:18:28 AM PST by GraceG
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To: riverdawg

Yea... I read the same kind of crap when Perot gave Clinton the win over Bush Sr. I don’t believe it for a second.


36 posted on 11/13/2013 8:19:09 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!)
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To: GraceG
The GOP was the reason, they did nothing to counter the former clintoon goon...

For those of us in Virginia, any pretense that the GOP would play ball with Conservatives has been wiped away. It WAS that bad. It will only get worse..

37 posted on 11/13/2013 8:20:23 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Carry_Okie
“As far as I could discern, Cucinelli lost because he was so busy appealing to the base that he failed to sell his ideas to the center. The ads I saw were terrible. Frankly, I put this loss at the feet of the DC consulting class, which is RINO to the core, IOW, it was a classic RINO backstabbing, as they did to any number of TEA Party candidates. The GOPe will not suffer challenge, because their status is more important to them than are the ideas the Party supposedly exists to advance.”

I agree with your first two sentences, but fail to see how they mesh with the rest of what you wrote. Virginia is still a center-right state, as it has been for 25 years, but any Republican must pick up most of the independents and moderates in the center to win a state-wide election.

Fortunately, the Virginia legislature is still mostly conservative and will be able to limit the damage that McAuliffe can do in four years.

38 posted on 11/13/2013 8:21:34 AM PST by riverdawg
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To: 1010RD

While there were many factors that came into play, fundamentally Ken lost because of Ken.


39 posted on 11/13/2013 8:22:05 AM PST by EternalVigilance (tomhoefling@gmail.com)
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To: riverdawg
Libertarians are an odd bunch. The ones I know will not vote for anyone who runs a campaign stressing conservative social values over a limited-government platform. It's a deal-breaker with them.
40 posted on 11/13/2013 8:27:17 AM PST by riverdawg
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