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To narrow down the search area, Zweck took the plane's last known position, as of 2:11 a.m. local time, and then looked for straight-line routes that traced a great circle around the globe. That would be consistent with a scenario in which the crew — and perhaps the passengers as well — were incapacitated, leaving the plane to fly on autopilot until the fuel ran out.

If the crew was incapacitated, how the plane turn?

However, the only way to verify the analysis is to identify wreckage in the search area, an Alaska-sized stretch of the Indian Ocean about 1,550 miles (2,500 kilometers) southwest of Perth, Australia.

There have been some intriguing sightings of debris, gleaned from satellite imagery and aerial observations. Ships and aircraft from six countries — Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and the United States — are combing the area. NASA says it's taking pictures of the southern search zone with its Terra and EO-1 satellites. But so far, Inmarsat's masterful theorem has yet to be proven.

What about the ELT's?