Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: grania

A derivative is a contract between two parties, where the value is driven primarily by the price of some underlying physical “thing” like oil, gold, or a stock. The best known derivatives are futures (where you are buying with an execution/delivery date in the future), options (the right but not obligation to buy or sell), and swaps (exchange of two cash streams). Even a sports bet can be thought of as a derivative, as the value is based on something else.

Using the sports analogy, let’s say you want to buy Pats/Colts (i.e., buy the Pats, sell the Colts). The spread is 7, so you would pay $7 and receive in dollars the difference in the score.

Collateralization is a process where the two parties to the contract “settle up” the current value on a daily basis (this is called “marking to market”). In the betting example, you paid $7 to enter into the contract, but the current market value is $7, so I would “post” that amount back to you.

Then, later in the day, ESPN breathlessly reports that Tom Brady has a hangnail, and the spread falls to 3 points. That means your contract is only worth $3 by current reckoning, so you need to return $4 of the collateral I posted.

On Saturday, Andrew Luck sees a GEICO ad and gets really mad, and guarantees a win, causing the spread to go to 2. Now your contract is only worth $2, and you return another $1 of collateral to me.

Then on Sunday, the Colts get Gronked and lose by 18. The contract settles at $18, and since I’ve already posted $2 I need to pay you $16. (I really hope I haven’t screwed up the math somewhere.)

Of course, if I only have $10, then I can’t pay, and you don’t get your money. This is called counterparty credit risk. If my buys and sells are mostly balanced, it’s not much of a problem, but if my position gets too directional I can be exposed. Alternately, if I have very directional risk facing a counterparty who goes under, then we can start to see contagion.

Enter the central counterparty. After you and I make the initial bet, we agree to amend the contract (”novate”) so that the CCP sits in between us, i.e., your long Pats/short Colts position is against the CCP, and my offsetting position is against the CCP. So the CCP is net flat. Two additional bits of information: we will each post a little bit of extra collateral to the CCP (so on day 1, instead of getting the full $7, maybe you only get to hold $5, and instead of posting just $7, maybe I have to post $9, so the CCP holds net $4); and, if I go under, the other market participants are not affected (for the most part — there will be some market disruptions due to the need to “replace” the risk that evaporated, to restore balance to the system).

Hope that helps.


8 posted on 11/14/2014 6:05:41 AM PST by boomstick (One of the fingers on the button will be German.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies ]


To: boomstick
Yes, that helps somewhat. I'm going to read it over, slowly, at least three times today. I won't even look for errors, your numbers get the give-and-take across. It does sound like a bit of a Monopoly game, where I buy a derivative on say a hotel on Boardwalk according to a present value, but the price of that hotel fluctuates day to day, and I give or get money accordingly. That would really mess up the game, especially if people had the means to manipulate the value of a hotel on Boardwalk.

How could a derivative not be subjected to cheating? If I wanted to lower that spread on a Pats game, I'd start a well placed rumor that Tom Brady couldn't play in that game....(etc)

This really shouldn't be allowed; it does sound like gambling where insider knowledge and manipulation win the day.

10 posted on 11/14/2014 6:25:34 AM PST by grania
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson