I don’t disagree. She didn’t run last time because she knew what kind of effect it would have on her kids. Time will tell.
Four things happened last time just after her 'One Nation" bus tour that tipped the scales against her running I think:
1) Bristol had that nasty run-in with the LGBT mafia at a bar while shooting her reality show, which led to death threats against her.
2) Little Trig himself starting getting death threats. 3) A doctor's report came in that said Trig's development would be significantly hurt if Palin was away for another campaign during his critical growth years (she actually said this at one point, but it was ignored and has gone down the memory hole).
4) Rick Perry declared.