Skip to comments.Democrats’ Window to Find Strong House Candidates Slowly Closing - following "bruising losses"
Posted on 07/29/2015 12:16:06 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
When former Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller passed on a bid in the Silver States 3rd District last week, it sent Democrats back to the drawing board again to find a nominee for this Tossup seat in 2016.
Millers decision to sit the race out was a disappointment for national Democrats, who thought his profile would make him a strong candidate for this highly competitive seat. But its indicative of a larger issue Democrats face this cycle: Recruiting House candidates in 2016 hasnt been as easy as many predicted two years ago.
More than a year from Election Day, Democrats are without top-tier recruits in five of the 11 races rated Tossups by the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call. Democrats are also searching for strong recruits in at least five more of the 15 other districts rated as competitive in 2016.
The holes in the roster contrast with the message former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel pushed last cycle. In a June 2013 interview with BuzzFeed, Israel said he spoke to a number of candidates in the early days of the 2014 cycle who were reluctant to run in a daunting midterm environment. Israel said candidates wanted to wait to run until 2016 when presidential turnout and the promise of former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at the top of the ticket would make for a better Democratic year.
Whoever has the job of recruiting for the DCCC after I leave will not have a difficult job for as long as people believe Hillary Clinton is gonna be on the ballot, Israel told BuzzFeed at the time.
Among the seats Democrats must win in 2016 if they have any shot at chipping away at Republicans 30-seat House majority but where the party still doesnt have recruits is upstate New Yorks 24th District. The Syracuse-based seat voted for President Barack Obama by a 16-point margin in 2012, making it one of the most Democratic districts held by a Republican in the country, but so far no candidate has emerged to take on freshman Republican Rep. John Katko.
In Californias 21st District, a seat Obama carried by an 11-point spread in 2012 but that is now held by two-term GOP Rep. David Valadao, Democrats are hunting for a stronger recruit after the current candidate posted a measly $24,000 fundraising haul in the second quarter. And in Iowas 3rd District, a competitive seat held by freshman GOP Rep. David Young, Democrats are also without a recruit. Democratic former Gov. Chet Culver is mulling a run there, but its unclear when or if hell announce.
Still, national Democrats say they are unconcerned about the current state of recruitment, noting there are potential recruits mulling bids behind the scenes in a number of districts though they declined to name names or specify which seats.
They also point to a number of districts where the party has secured top-tier challengers in top-target races in 2016. They include Colorado state Senate Minority Leader Morgan Carroll, who is challenging GOP Rep. Mike Coffman in Colorados competitive 6th District, and former Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Lon Johnson, who is running against vulnerable GOP Rep. Dan Benishek in Michigans 1st District.
Yet multiple Democratic operatives cede its typically harder to recruit a cycle after bruising losses. In 2014, Democrats saw a net loss of 13 seats.
I dont think this is atypical, because if you look historically, when youre coming off a successful cycle you get a lot of candidates in early, said Travis Lowe, a Democratic consultant and former DCCC aide. I think because we did not have a good year last year, its just slower.
Others added that with presidential-year turnout, expected to benefit Democrats in 2016, candidates have a longer cushion of time to jump into races across the country.
You can spend fewer of your resources in mobilization and more on persuasion, and thats a great benefit of a presidential cycle, said Achim Bergmann, a Democratic consultant .
Democrats also point to Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., who entered the Centennial States Senate contest at almost the last possible moment and came out victorious.
Cory Gardner got in way late, and he wasnt successful at all, Lowe joked. I dont think its a big concern that they havent found folks yet. Getting into [the fourth quarter] and the even-year, the alarm will go off, if recruits havent materialized, Lowe said.
Democrats also add that Republicans are without candidates in a number of competitive seats Democrats currently hold. Most of those are in California, where vulnerable Democratic Reps. Ami Bera, Raul Ruiz and Scott Peters are still without strong challengers, despite their districts competitive bents.
But a month into the third quarter, a number of Democratic consultants say the window to find strong candidates is slowly closing.
House races are a little bit different, the time table is a little bit different, said Doug Thornell, a managing director at SKDKnickerbocker and former top aide at both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Democratic Congressional Committee. Good candidates are going to emerge in the 3rd, maybe 4th quarter. Anytime after that youre tying your own hands.
I wonder if the “democrats” know it doesn’t matter.
How about the pubbies window for challenges to those Democrat-lite berks?
They can always go to the state pen.
What, they can’t fill their bench with baby-butchers who want to subdue the masses with communism, fling the borders wide open, surrender to our mortal enemies, and support Bob having anal intercourse with his doggy “wife”?
I’m shocked. When did the pool of such people finally dry up? Maybe they aborted all of them?
Democrats have no bench. The tea party (small letters) has taken local and state legislatures by storm and that’s where recruits for higher office are groomed and recruited.
It’s clear the Rat’s long term strategy is to focus almost entirely on the presidency, pack SCOTUS and then rule as dictators.
Neither Hillary nor Biden have any coat tails.
All the Left can do is to gin up a state of fear.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.