Posted on 10/25/2015 8:36:16 AM PDT by jimbo123
The Republican nomination fight continues to be dominated by political newcomers Donald Trump and Ben Carson. In Iowa, Carson has moved up to tie Trump.
In South Carolina and New Hampshire, there is Donald Trump with a large lead, and then there is everyone else.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
When averaging the three states, Cruz is third
Only in Iowa, which previously gave primary “wins” to Huckabee and Santorum. This sort of variety (rather than one candidate uniformly coming out ahead) is what is used to keep the political process interesting. Improves ratings and reinforces the “big lie” that the people are in control of their government.
How has he moved up to tie? He was supposedly up by eight points.
Whatever-Happened-to-Carly-Jane?
He moved down to tie. LOL
Iowa is a coin toss for the nomination. Probably helps with fundraising which Trump does not need.
Iowa became first repub primary in 1976
1976 ford won, nominee
1980 bush won, reagan 2nd nominee
1984 reagan unopposed
1988 dole won, bush 3rd nominee
1992 bush unopposed
1996 dole won, nominee
2000 bush won, nominee
2004 bush unopposed
2008 huckabee won, mccain 4th nominee
2012 santorum won, romney 2nd nominee
10 caucuses
3 unopposed
7 contested
3 winner won nomination
4 loser won nomination
Different polls. But the only one the media cares about is any poll, especially Fox, showing Trump losing. Fox has ignored these new polls this morning. Media Buzz islive and no mention of the new polls. Only the old poll showing Carson up by 8 over Trump.
Can you imagine Fox starting off a program saying Trump leads Carson by 26 points in New Hampshire and 17 points in South Carolina. Not happening. They report bad news for Trump, never good news.
In 1976, sitting Pres. Ford beat Reagan by only a few percent in the Iowa caucuses. That was a Reagan boost.
| Poll | Date |
Carson
|
Trump
|
Cruz
|
Rubio
|
Bush
|
Paul
|
Fiorina
|
Huckabee
|
Jindal
|
Kasich
|
Santorum
|
Christie
|
Pataki
|
Graham
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 10/14 - 10/22 | 27.7 | 22.0 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Carson +5.7 |
| CBS/YouGovCBS/YouGov | 10/15 - 10/22 | 27 | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Tie |
| DMR/BloombergDMR/Bloomberg | 10/16 - 10/19 | 28 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Carson +9 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 10/14 - 10/20 | 28 | 20 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Carson +8 |
Why are there only 3 polls in the Iowa average? Their other averages include more.
There are more. Go to the link and scroll down you find months of them.
Yes third with 8.3% but Trump is first with 35% which means that Trump has over 4 voters for each Cruz voter. I just do not see Cruz catching up with Trump. Iowa is Cruz best state and Trump is beating him there with ease. I also think Trump support is being under counted. The pollsters are polling likely Republican voters but Trump has a great deal of cross over support that probably is not in the likely Republican voter bucket.
Jimbo, thanks for posting.
jpsb, good analysis; thanks.
Trump’s support from Independents and cross-over Democrats is something both parties and the liberal media DON’T want to talk about.
I know Carsons Iowa numbers are complete BS.
Its now clear there are only 6 candidates actually in the race. And 2 of those are tenuous.
Time for the RNC to do something useful and cut the chaff from the debates.
I imagine we will see some more self excision after these three states finally vote.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.