Skip to comments.The Long Game: A Guide to Counting Delegates
Posted on 01/24/2016 3:49:17 PM PST by brothers4thID
The conventional wisdom about Republican presidential nominations goes something like this: Either (1) a single candidate wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then sweeps the rest of the field; or (2) the winner in Iowa fails to take New Hampshire, and we wait a few weeks for South Carolina and Nevada to figure out who the nominee will be. Either way, the whole thing wraps up early, and the later contests do not matter.
These scenarios have played out, though, when the top candidates have been generally acceptable to the majority of Republicans. Under those circumstances, letting Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada sort out the candidates makes sense: The rest of the party will endorse that selection.
But the two candidates at the top of the heap right now -- Donald Trump and Ted Cruz --leave a significant swath of the Republican party (if not the voters, then at least the politicians, donors, and consultants who dominate American politics) feeling quite cold. This could mean a lengthy nomination battle that stretches all the way to the California primary in June.
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
Trump will sweep the field.
The GOP establishment cannot face the fact that he will become the nominee and it will all be over before March.
Sucks to be them.
Thanks for your factual, insightful analysis of the delegate process.
Trump will run the table faster than these writers can write about it.
This writer is already behind the curve.
Trump is up by double digits.
And no one else comes close.
He’ll do a feat even Reagan couldn’t do in 1980: cinch the nomination early.
Ironically enough, the rules were written to make that happen, just not with Trump in mind.
We will have a better idea in a week. And a much better idea by March 2.
No need for the sarc tag. The polls all overwhelmingly support goldstategop’s assertion. You are in denial.
The Establishment politicians, major donors, and consultants may just find their relevancy declining after Super Tuesday.
The Republican Party is heading to the dustbin of history for the destruction it so richly desreves!
Far be it for me to try to argue against your devout Trumpism, but the very point of the article is that until March 15 every contest is proportional. Trump could win 45% in every contest until Florida (he won’t, by the way.) and still not have enough delegates to sew up the nomination.
The trouble for Trump is that the field is so crowded early that proportional allocation works against him. (The same fact works against ALL candidates, by the way.) When the 2%’ers start dropping out, all of the “anybody but Trump” vote has a clearer choice and all of a sudden Trump’s 60% unfavorable ratings come home to roost. Because if he can’t win 51% of the vote in the later voting states, he can’t win.
And the Rovians and party insiders in the GOP Elite Establishment are working overtime trying to figure out how to game this system so Cruz will win. And Trump lose. You can bet they’ve got their lawyers, analysts, and every functionary and operative in the party to game this system, above board or below board. They are talking to every delegate. Delegates can be TURNED, they can run on one slate, the flip to another in the rules of many state parties. If the Cruz Washington Establishment can just get to the first vote at the convention and survive, the Establishment will be able to use subterfuge, logrolling and donor/Cheap Labor Express/Goldman Sachs money to prevent the Outsider from winning.
History is on Trump’s side.
Historically, whoever led the field in December went on to win the nomination.
What is impressive in the past year, is the remarkable stability of the race.
Unlike in 2008 and 2012, where the lead changed hands several times, Trump has been dominant since he entered the race in the summer.
If it was Jeb, every one would be writing its all over but with Trump they still hope somehow he will implode.
That won’t happen and facts are stubborn things.
New MN Poll from Pollingreport.com.
Rubio 49% Hillary 40%
Cruz 45% Hillary 43%
Hillary 43% Trump 38%
That still doesn’t address the point of the article: how will the delegates play out? May very well be an easy win for Trump, but asserting that doesn’t explain how the numbers work out.
If this is indeed the goal, it's failed miserably at least the last two times, and quite possibly the last seven. As more and more GOP voters have refused to vote for the GOP nominee, this method has failed even when the Democrat candidate is the wildly unpopular Barry. Perhaps, in a nutshell, the nomination process selected by the GOP is the problem.
The problem is Trump haters cannot agree on who should be the guy they rally around.
And most of the candidates apart from Cruz, are polling in single digits.
Which drives the GOP establishment crazy with fear.
If they do manage to steal it from Trump they will lose the general election , because most of Trump’s army will sit it out . Unfortunately the GOPe is very comfortable with a Dim winning
When was the last time there were 5 candidates (or more) with a chance of earning 5% or more of the vote in a proportional caucus/primary state? Do you see Bush, Christie, or Kasich dropping out before South Carolina? Do you see Carson or Fiorina dropping out before New Hampshire?
Furthermore, there’s a reason we say “ground game matters”. Ground game is not just getting folks to the caucus/voting booth. It is making sure you have precinct captains and delegates who support your candidate. Why? Because:
“If a presidential candidate has received a share of the delegates as a result of the presidential primary but withdraws as a presidential candidate at any time prior to the convention, his pledged delegates shall be released by the candidate and each delegate is free to support any candidate of his political party who may be his choice as a candidate for president. [RSA 659:93 VI]”
That means that even if Trump wins 40% of the New Hampshire delegates, the other 60% can, when their candidate drops out, chose whoever they want. That’s why you have to have “ground game”: getting your candidate’s solid supporters involved in the delegation.
Trump wins Iowa in an absolute blowout, attracting many first-time caucus-goers and new Republicans.
He has translated the army of enthusiastic supporters into actual votes and growth in the party.
The establishment knocks each other down rushing to get on the Trump train.
The race is effectively over after New Hampshire.