Posted on 03/18/2016 9:29:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Yeah, as much as we’re all enjoying these fantasy scenarios in which the RNC wrests the nomination from Trump through some procedural chicanery and banishes him to the island of third-party losers, I think in the end they’ll convince themselves that they can ride the tiger. Crown Trump as the duly elected nominee once he has a majority of delegates, be good soldiers for him in the general election, and if he loses as badly as the smart set thinks he will, cross your fingers and hope that some of your new nationalist voters will stick around for the 2018 midterms and beyond.
I think Trump will make it a little easier for them too during the general election. He has zero incentive to continue pandering to his base this summer and fall; he could go full communist and they’ll vote for him anyway. The way to beat Hillary is to tone down the authoritarian nonsense, start talking up economic populism, and do what little he can to sound more “presidential.” In the meantime, though, “I look forward to watching Sean Spicer defend religious tests and mass deportation,” tweets David Harsanyi. “Should do wonders for RNC’s future.” Hey, Spicer’s already started lying about Trump’s prediction of riots at the convention. Religious tests and mass deportation should be easy for him after that.
I wonder how many RNC officers will resign in protest rather than carry Trump’s water in the general election. The RNC is obliged to defend its nominee as an institution, but just as #NeverTrumpers are under no obligation to vote for him (sorry, Huck!), Spicer and Reince Priebus are under no obligation to work for him. We’ll see. Speaking of the general election, though: If the vote in California on June 7th looks anything like this poll, which currently has Trump leading Cruz 38/23, then you almost certainly won’t have to worry about a floor fight and cheating. Every projection I’ve seen from election nerds over the past two days has Trump over 1,000 delegates, and sometimes over 1,100, by the time the last five states vote on June 7th. California is the big prize that night, of course, with 172 delegates at stake. Those delegates are awarded winner-take-all by congressional district, so if Trump beats Cruz consistently across the state, even if it’s by just a few points, he’d win a huge windfall of delegates and very likely clinch the 1,237 he needs for the nomination. Obviously, lots of caveats apply. We’re nearly three months removed from California voting, and the poll, which was taken a week ago, includes Marco Rubio, who’s at 10 percent.
Cruz will pick up some of that. Another recent poll has the race much tighter, with Trump up just five points over Cruz and another 33 percent split between Kasich and Rubio, giving Cruz even more hope. The dynamics of the race, with Trump potentially on the brink of clinching, will also heavily influence what Californians do, needless to say. John Kasich is at 20 percent in this poll but if he’s still in the game on June 7th and Cruz needs a goal-line stand in CA to block Trump from 1,237, some anti-Trump Kasich fans there will switch their vote to Cruz to help. The suspense that night could reach “overtime in the Super Bowl” levels, even though, er, it’s highly likely that Trump will be close enough to 1,237 even if he loses California that he’ll be able to clinch at the convention anyway by mopping up a few unbound delegates.
That is, unless Kasich quits sometime soon and makes this a two-man race. RCP’s Sean Trende ran some numbers to try to gauge just how badly Kasich’s continued presence in the race will hurt Cruz. Answer: Badly.
I ran two different scenarios in our delegate calculator. I won’t give you the specifics, but the general idea is this: I generally gave Trump 40 percent of the vote, to Cruz’s 35 percent and Kasich’s 25 percent. In New England, I gave Trump 60 percent of the vote to Kasich’s 25 percent and Cruz’s 15. In West Virginia, I gave Trump 60 percent, Cruz 25 percent and Kasich 15 percent. I also skipped Colorado, North Dakota, and American Samoa, since their delegations are unbound…
I then re-ran the scenario without Kasich, allocating 70 percent of his vote to Cruz and 30 percent to Trump…
The outcome is fairly stark. Under the first scenario, Trump wins 1,296 delegates and clinches the nomination on the last day of primary voting.
Under the second, Kasich-less scenario, however, Trump has 1,125 delegates, while Cruz collects 899. Given that under the second scenario, Cruz rattles off a string of wins at the end, and given the fact that Rubio’s and Kasich’s 300 delegates would probably disproportionately gravitate toward Cruz, this would likely be enough deny Trump the nomination.
Kasich staying in, if Trende’s guesstimates are right, is likely the difference between Trump as nominee and Cruz as nominee. It’s a 170-delegate difference to Trump’s totals alone. And to think, like most of the other anti-Trumpers out there, I was dumb enough to celebrate on Tuesday night when Kasich won Ohio, denying Trump a 66-delegate windfall even though it guaranteed that he’d stay in the race and continue to do terrible damage. That’s the sort of strategic shortsightedness that’s crippled Trump’s opponents for the past nine months. In a way, we deserve him.
You can be assured that such an announcement means exactly the opposite.
You can be assured that such an announcement means exactly the opposite.
“IF he is the nominee” <— Operative words.
It will rally around Trump if he is even close or it will deny the WILL of the people.
Zero. Unlike dogmatic screaming heads in the punditry, they are not interested in these mindless daily hysterics about "Conservative Purity". Their job is electing as many GOP candidate to office as possible
They will rally “around” him alright. The guys in front will try to distract him, while the guys behind him will try to stab him in the back.
Sure, they can say this unequivocally because they have no intention of allowing him to become the nominee. They control the rules, they can change them at any time. THEY decide, not the voters, according to their “rules”.
We see right through you, RNC.
[Cruz supporter]
Before Iowa, I predicted that Trump would go into the convention with about 1,300 delegates, enough to win the nomination on the first round. Still haven’t seen anything to change that prediction.
Having said that, I can hold my nose and vote for Trump in the General.
A rattlesnake is honest.
The GOP is not.
They impose statism (RomneyCARE, RomneyMarriage, ObamaTRADE)
and LIE that they did not, as THEY remain EXEMPT.
It is not Nihilism, it Realism. Since 1988 Conservatives have faithfully pledges their treasure and time to the GOP. Despite elections successes in 1988, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2010 and 2014 what have Conservative gotten from the GOP?
Prosperity? Nope worse economy since 1979.
Reduction in Government-nope as expensive, corrupt, incompetent, intrusive and bigger then ever
Supreme Court? Nope as far left as it has ever been.
A Nation secure? Nope at risk in a dangerous world. Military broken, exhausted and overextended.
A respect for rule of law and the Constitution? Nope. Government, and society, is more lawless then it has ever been.
A healthy growing vibrant society? Nope stagnant, or in decline, everywhere in every way.
So, it not Nihilism, it Realism. It is a realistic assessment that doing the same thing again this year electorally is going to continue this decline and degradation from DC.You can only overcome inertia in any system with force. So we need to force DC out of it denigrate path onto a new path.
The Dogmatic choir, such as AllahPundit here are clinging to the same slogans and buzz words that have failed for 30 years to accomplish a single thing.
translation: We here at Establishment House have come up with a sure-fire plan to prevent him from being the nominee.
Here’s what their plan is, interview with R. Stone, who is VERY credible, no matter what others may think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_A17utM7MjA
How many Pinocchios does prince reebus get for that one?
IF Trump is such the disaster as the the GOPE Astroturf at Hot Air predict, then the GOPE should let him win simply to teach the GOP voters a lesson for the future. Show them the GOPE knows better then the voters who should be the candidate.
These daily desperate attempts to stop Trump at all costs send the voters the exact opposite message.
“Their job is electing as many GOP candidate to office as possible”
And, more importantly, their paycheck depends on pleasing the nominee since he will then control the party machinery.
Geez, that sounds familiar. And so close to March 15th too.
They’ve been shopping the idea of a contested convention. If they follow social media, they have to know Trump’s voters will bolt. The only votes they will be casting will be against the incumbents. This is NOT the season for holding our noses to vote for another one of their selected losers.
Let’s put it this way....I’ll believe it when I see it.
If the party rallies around him and gives him support, does that make trump GOPe?
Seems to have made Cruz GOPe in plenty of people’s minds.
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