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My model shows Donald Trump has an 87 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton
New York Newsday ^ | July 28, 2016 | Helmut Norpoth

Posted on 07/28/2016 12:13:59 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

THE BOTTOM LINE ◾Donald Trump may be lucky to have picked an election in which change trumps experience. ◾When voters demand change, they are willing to overlook many foibles of the change candidate.

To be sure, Donald Trump, is a long shot in betting markets to win in November. PredictIt, a popular legal wagering website, gives Hillary Clinton a 66 percent chance to win the presidency. She has consistently led Trump in that market for three months, as well as in the Iowa Electronic Markets. And Trump has trailed Clinton — with rare exceptions — in the poll averages by RealClearPolitics and The Huffington Post.

So how can a reasonable person predict that Trump will be the next president?

For starters, pre-election polls have selected the wrong candidate many times. Who can forget Tom Dewey defeating Harry Truman in 1948 polls — until he didn’t? Or Michael Dukakis leading George H.W. Bush in 1988 by 17 points this time of year? Or Mitt Romney edging Barack Obama in the final Gallup poll four years ago?

My advice: Beware of pollsters bearing forecasts, especially anyone trying to peek into the future, especially those with money to bet.

Some 20 years ago, I constructed a formula, The Primary Model, that has predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced. It is based on elections dating to 1912. The formula was wrong only once: The 1960 election. That one hurt because John F. Kennedy was my preferred candidate.

The Primary Model consists of two ingredients: The swing of the electoral pendulum, and the outcomes of primaries....

(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; clinton; donaldtrump; hillary; hillaryclinton; model; poll; polls; trump
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1 posted on 07/28/2016 12:14:00 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Wait until Hillary screeches the greatest speech in modern history tonight.


3 posted on 07/28/2016 12:16:52 PM PDT by Donglalinger
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

which presidential candidate in the last 25 years has had more EXECUTIVE experience then Trump?

as a matter of fact, if you equate being governor to running a single large corporation, then i’m unsure if we’ve ever had someone with as much executive experience running for office

even Ross Perot hadn’t run as many corporations as Trump


4 posted on 07/28/2016 12:18:31 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I have something similar. Nixon did beat JFK in the popular vote. They count Alabama wrong


5 posted on 07/28/2016 12:19:18 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

"In other news, a new model shows that Donald Trump will win by 87%...BOOM!"

6 posted on 07/28/2016 12:20:32 PM PDT by PROCON (Americans First or Terrorists First - Choose in November)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I was only at 86. Let’s go with yours.


7 posted on 07/28/2016 12:22:30 PM PDT by showme_the_Glory ((ILLEGAL: prohibited by law. ALIEN: Owing political allegiance to another country or government))
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To: Donglalinger

8 posted on 07/28/2016 12:23:15 PM PDT by Red Badger (Make America AMERICA again!.........................)
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To: PROCON

9 posted on 07/28/2016 12:24:13 PM PDT by Red Badger (Make America AMERICA again!.........................)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Hillary is the worst candidate to ever run for president and was so bad that a Jr. Senator from Illinois with less than 2 years experience beat her the last time she ran. The only thing she has going for her is that 40+% of the population will vote for anyone with a “D” behind their name. I know it is 47% but I think what is in play this year is the 5-7% that are really normal Americans that still believe the democrat party is what their parents thought they were, and were raised that way, and not what it has morphed into.


10 posted on 07/28/2016 12:24:35 PM PDT by shotgun
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Does the model take into account the massive voter fraud with no IDs that is going to happen this time?


11 posted on 07/28/2016 12:25:01 PM PDT by RummyChick ("...Americans think Trump is running 2 help America &Hillary is running 2 help Hillary" ~Ben Shapiro)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
My model shows Donald Trump has an 87 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton...

...like a red-headed step child sitting on a dirty rug atop a rented mule.

12 posted on 07/28/2016 12:25:50 PM PDT by henkster (Liberals need to learn there is no "F" in "Money.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Demographics are awful towards the side of self-government, the Dewey campaign was full of sloth and arrogance, Dukakis imploded due to emulating the Dewey ethos because of the polls as well as Horton/tank debacle/”muh cousin is a Hollywood actress”, and the vote fraud will be rampant because of so many different ways to vote (Electronic, loose absentee rules, early voting, etc...).

I say 50/50 until Election Day. Trump campaign must act like they are down by 10 and be aggressive as heck, especially concerning poll watchers on Election Day/constant communication with State authorities overseeing the election.


13 posted on 07/28/2016 12:27:23 PM PDT by rollo tomasi (Working hard to pay for deadbeats and corrupt politicians.)
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To: shotgun

And Hillary has the media on her side.


14 posted on 07/28/2016 12:28:51 PM PDT by apocalypto
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Sorry, but Helmut Norpoth, what “experience” do you believe HILLARY!! possesses that trumps Trump?


15 posted on 07/28/2016 12:29:16 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (If a border fence isn't effective, why is there a border fence around the White House?)
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To: Sgt_Schultze

Sorry, but Helmut Norpoth, what “experience” do you believe HILLARY!! possesses that trumps Trump?


It’s a Dem fairy tale talking point. Eisenhower was experienced. Hillary is just old.


16 posted on 07/28/2016 12:30:09 PM PDT by lodi90 (Clear choice for Conservatives now: TRUMP or lose)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

You mean when change trump corruption & incompetence!


17 posted on 07/28/2016 12:31:27 PM PDT by Lopeover (2016 Election is about allegiance to the United States!)
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To: RummyChick
Does the model take into account the massive voter fraud with no IDs that is going to happen this time? NOT IN NC!!
18 posted on 07/28/2016 12:34:43 PM PDT by Notasoccermom
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Everyone has a model that’s a true crystal ball as to who will win the election. I have one to that says Trump will win with 353 EV’s.

Truth is, none of us know what will happen November 8.


19 posted on 07/28/2016 12:37:39 PM PDT by Angels27
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Whatever the polls show, whatever the models show, don’t take anything for granted. We need to approach this election on the assumption that we’ll have to fight for every vote right up until the polls close on election day. It’s better to fight hard and find out Trump won easily, than it would be to assume everything’s under control and there’s nothing to worry about, only to discover that we made a critical miscalculation. Fight ffor every vote!


20 posted on 07/28/2016 12:37:55 PM PDT by GreenHornet
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