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Reality Check: Job Market Rolling Over -- Rate Of Hiring Declines At Fastest Pace Since 2013
Zero Hedge ^ | 12/07/2016

Posted on 12/07/2016 9:04:05 AM PST by SeekAndFind

On Wednesday the BLS reported Janet Yellen's favorite labor market indicator, the JOLTS survey, which as expected (since it tracked the modestly weaker October payrolls) showed that in October, the number of job opening dropped from the upward revised September print 5.631 million to 5.534 million, down some 97,000, if modestly better than the 5.5 million expected.  The number of job openings declined to a series low in July 2009, one month after the official end of the most recent recession. Employment continued to decline after the end of the recession, reaching a low point in February 2010.

The October job opening rate remained flat at 3.7%, with the greatest number of job openings in the education & health services, trade & transportation, and retail trade; job openings in professional services, mining, manufacturing, information, food services and government all fell.

The ratio of unemployed persons per job opening was 1.4 in October 2016; when the most recent recession began (December 2007), the number of unemployed persons per job opening was 1.9. The ratio peaked at 6.6 unemployed persons per job opening in July 2009 and trended downward until the end of 2015.  Since January 2016 the ratio has leveled off and has remained between 1.3 and 1.4.

However confrming that the US labor market is indeed rolling over, despite the near record (if modestly declining) number of job openings, the pace of hiring has failed to keep up, and slid once again in October, declining by 97,000 to 5.099 million. This was the lowest print since May.

But more troubling was the annual rate of change in hiring, which as shown in the chart below, dropped 2.2% compared to the 5.212 million a year ago. This was the biggest contraction in hiring since March 2013.

Another way of visualizing the rollover in hiring: when superimposed over cumulative payrolls added over the past 12 months, it appears that the US job market is indeed rolling ober.

The number of hires has exceeded the number of job openings for most of the JOLTS history. Since February 2015, this relationship has changed as job openings have outnumbered hires in most months, also suggesting that the pace of hiring has slowed down disproportionately.

Quits, which are generally voluntary separations initiated by employees, continue to rise. The quits rate can serve as a measure of workers' willingness or ability to leave jobs. The number of quits has exceeded the number of layoffs and discharges for most of the JOLTS history. During the latest recession, this relationship changed as layoffs and discharges outnumbered quits from November 2008 through March 2010. • In October 2016, there were 3.0 million quits, a drop from the 3.1 million in September, and 1.5 million layoffs and discharges

Job Finally, taking a look at the distorted Beveridge Curve, which plots the job openings rate against the unemployment rate, shows that from the start of the most recent recession in December 2007 through the end of 2009, the series trended lower and further to the right as the job openings rate declined and the unemployment rate rose. From the start of the most recent recession in December 2007 through the end of 2009, the series trended lower and further to the right as the job openings rate declined and the unemployment rate rose. From 2010 to the present, the series has been trending up and to the left as the job openings rate increased and the unemployment rate decreased.

In October 2016, the unemployment rate was 4.9 percent and the job openings rate was 3.7 percent. This job openings rate corresponds to a higher unemployment rate than it did before the most recent recession.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: hiring; jobs; unemployment

1 posted on 12/07/2016 9:04:05 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: All

Let the flaming begin . Im getting popcorn.


2 posted on 12/07/2016 9:10:12 AM PST by ssfromla
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To: ssfromla

new minimum wage increase


3 posted on 12/07/2016 9:14:00 AM PST by DOC44 (Have gun will travel.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Depression is the new normal.

When the depression worsens, the lying filth say we’re having a recession. If the depression eases ever so slightly, they tell us it’s a recovery.


4 posted on 12/07/2016 9:22:13 AM PST by dsc (Any attempt to move a government to the left is a crime against humanity.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The baby boomer retirement rate is accelerating, and they are not being replaced in the workforce.

The gen-x crowd was kicked to the curb in the 90’s-00’s, and their millenial children can’t compete with third world labor and H1B imports.,

Either way, domestic companies screwed themselves by choosing to get in bed with communist/socialist regimes at the expense of the domestic labor markets.

Forget tariffs, any US company dealing with a communist/socialist regime (china, mexico, india, etc.) should be barred from doing business in the US.


5 posted on 12/07/2016 9:28:40 AM PST by factoryrat (We reserve the producers, the creators. Grow it, mine it, build it.)
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To: SeekAndFind

And we should believe the underlying data because why? Consider the source.


6 posted on 12/07/2016 9:29:59 AM PST by Portcall24
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To: SeekAndFind

Donald Trump’s fault.

/s


7 posted on 12/07/2016 9:34:06 AM PST by moovova
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To: SeekAndFind

I think Trump should drain the swamp that is Government Labor statistics. Set a new standard number for his Administration using the Unemployment and Underemployment number.

Start brand new with a real look at the real problems. Since Clinton and the 1990s we been using these fake numbers because they driv favorable headlines for the Administration. That “campaign by manipulating the data” needs to be ended.


8 posted on 12/07/2016 9:36:54 AM PST by MNJohnnie (This revolt is not ending, it is merely beginning.- Pat Caddell)
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To: Portcall24

RE: And we should believe the underlying data because why? Consider the source.

If we can’t believe the BLS figures, where then can we turn to?


9 posted on 12/07/2016 10:07:23 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

October — When employers thought Hillary would win.


10 posted on 12/07/2016 10:16:17 AM PST by Suz in AZ
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t know, but I’ll bet when the new administration takes over they will find there’s been 8 years of cooking the books. It’s what they do.


11 posted on 12/07/2016 10:19:01 AM PST by Portcall24
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To: Portcall24

“.......there’s been 8 years of cooking the books. It’s what they do.”....

Can anyone believe ANYTHING odumbo and his ilk say or have done? There is NO, “zero” (coining odumbo’s knickname) credibility in our government anywhere. That needs to resolved and draining the swamp may have a great impact on government accountability and honesty.


12 posted on 12/07/2016 10:24:11 AM PST by DaveA37
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