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Turkey still determined to play role in final Raqqa assault
Al Monitor ^ | March 21, 2017 | Fehim Taştekin

Posted on 03/21/2017 9:06:14 PM PDT by Texas Fossil

It sounded dramatic: The leaders of 50 Syrian Arab tribes met in Sanliurfa, Turkey, and announced they would set up the Army of Al-Jazirah and Euphrates Tribes to end Russian and Iranian occupation of Syria and cleanse the Euphrates and Al Jazeera areas of the Islamic State (IS), the Kurdish nationalist Democratic Union Party/Kurdistan Workers Party (PYD/PKK), Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Sheikh Rafi al Raco Ukla represented the Shaitat tribe. In his opening speech at the March 14 meeting, he thanked Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia for their assistance and added, “The US supports the PYD. The PYD is not different from [IS]. They deported many families from their homes in more than 50 villages.”

It's not clear which tribes actually attended the meeting and who some of those 50 representatives really represented. Some of the tribes at Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor have already sent troops to fight with the mainly Kurdish, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as the United States is preparing for an operation in Syria to take Raqqa from IS. On Jan. 17, representatives of 28 tribes around Raqqa had organized a press conference at Haci Ali village to declare their support for the SDF.

Ahmad al-Jarba, the former head of the Syrian National Coalition, has announced he will be participating in the Raqqa operation with 3,000 of his men under the SDF banner. Jarba, who hails from the Shimir tribe, has set up a group he calls Syrian Elite Forces. Several tribes including Shaitats have sent fighters to join this force.

From the outset of the Syrian crisis in 2011, such reports have frequently popped up in headlines along with scenarios predicting Assad would not survive more than two months. Such wishful thinking evaporated. So what is this report of a new army under Turkey’s sponsorship all about?

“It is not possible to say that those attending the meeting were real Syrian tribal representatives,” a local journalist who observed the meeting in Sanliurfa told Al-Monitor. “Most of the people introduced as tribal leaders don’t even live in Syria. Among them were some who were tried in Turkish courts for smuggling. They did try to look like a powerful, large gathering. But it was no different than the earlier ones. Many observers say intelligence services were behind the meeting. You could see that from the security measures around the meeting.”

Sanliurfa province, with its large Arab population, was the staging ground in 2012 for preparations to launch a proxy war against the Kurds when they claimed the Jazeera canton. Arab tribes met on Dec. 23-24, 2012, after declaring they had established the Jazeera and Euphrates Liberation Front, and two months later actually participated in clashes against the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) at Serekaniye. They did try to change the situation on the ground with the support of Turkish intelligence, but it didn’t work.

The March 14 meeting of Arab tribes at Sanliurfa is Turkey's most recent attempt to alter power balances, not only with Kurds in Rojava (the Democratic Federal System of Northern Syria), but in all of Syria. It is obvious that the Turkish government, which keeps insisting it will "be in the field and at the table in Syria,” maintains its feverish desire to have a say in Syria.

This tribal show of force cannot be analyzed independently of recent developments in Syria, such as:

Two simultaneous developments attracted notice in this complicated atmosphere. First, the Turkish government, which could not attune its demands with those of the United States and Russia, displayed its spoiler effect at peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan. Syrian opposition groups that participated in the Feb. 15-16 meeting under Turkey’s prodding did not send their negotiators to the March 14-15 meeting. Chief Syrian delegate Bashar al Jaafari claimed Turkey had blocked the opposition from attending.

Second, the tribes were convened at Sanliurfa parallel to the Astana process. The decision to set up a new army was Turkey's warning that it could deadlock the negotiations if its sensitivities are not taken into account. The target of the message was not only the Kurds but also the Americans, who persist in partnership with the Kurds, and Russia, Iran and the Syrian regime they support. Nevertheless, nobody really sees that message changing anything on the ground or making Turkey the playmaker in Syria.

If the tribes had that potential, they would have formed such an army long ago. Last spring, for example, there was an announcement that an "Army of the North" would be set up with Turkey's support. Nothing came of it. Even today, the force of local militants put together for Operation Euphrates Shield hasn’t evolved into an army, despite all the command, control and support supplied by the Turkish Armed Forces.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Crime/Corruption; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: arab; assault; raqqa; turkey
Is Erdogan actually going to War? With Syria and Iran?

Does he really think the US and Russia will allow that?

Has Erdogan totally lost his mind?

God Bless the United States of America. May he guide our nation through this Turkish Snit.

1 posted on 03/21/2017 9:06:14 PM PDT by Texas Fossil
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To: tomkat; Candor7; ColdOne; Navy Patriot

Turkish Ping!

Has Erdgogan lost his Mind?


2 posted on 03/21/2017 9:07:22 PM PDT by Texas Fossil ((Texas is not where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind & Attitude!))
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To: Texas Fossil
Way to come in at the one-inch line to steal the glory while he facilitated Westerners traveling to join ISIS.
3 posted on 03/21/2017 9:18:35 PM PDT by aynrandfreak (Being a Democrat means never having to say you're sorry)
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To: aynrandfreak

No, he is saying he’s going to war with Syria and Iran. He is totally insane.

And he never mentions the US and Russia? Does he really think we would let him? NUTS!


4 posted on 03/21/2017 9:23:50 PM PDT by Texas Fossil ((Texas is not where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind & Attitude!))
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To: Texas Fossil

That assumes he ever had a mind in the first place. Jive Turkeys, out of Greater Kurdistan.


5 posted on 03/22/2017 3:17:34 AM PDT by Eleutheria5 (“If you are not prepared to use force to defend civilization, then be prepared to accept barbarism.)
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To: Texas Fossil

Strikes me as just sabre rattling.

Maybe the Saudis or Qataris are still trying to shovel money through Turkey, to hire mercenaries to fight Shi’ites.

If somebody is offering money, of course tribal leaders would be interested. Renting tribes for wars or raids is customary practice - but it is also customary for tribes to back out of the deal, if the costs/risks get too high. So the tribal leaders keep their fingers in the wind, always trying to end up on the winning side, having maximized payments from all sides.

I doubt that many will be betting their lives on the Turkish side at this point, with the USA visibly rolling convoys through their areas, and likely competing on price.


6 posted on 03/22/2017 3:58:41 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: Texas Fossil

50 tribes. This is why Sykes-Picot was a failure and there will never be peace in Syria except under the rule of a strong dictator.


7 posted on 03/22/2017 4:12:01 AM PDT by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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To: Texas Fossil

Has Erdgogan lost his Mind?>>>>>>>

He is a walking dead man. Only a matter of time.

I wager that the Russians will do him.


8 posted on 03/22/2017 4:14:57 AM PDT by Candor7 ((Obama fascism article:(http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/barack_obama_the_quintessentia_1.html)
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To: Texas Fossil

The only role he wants to play is to spoil the Kurds’ victory.


9 posted on 03/22/2017 4:29:46 AM PDT by elhombrelibre (Cogito ergo sum a conservative pro-American.)
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To: Texas Fossil

After Iraq finally rids itself of ISIS, I wonder if they would be open to allowing us to create an airbase there. Move out of Incirlik and into northern Iraq. Too bad we couldn’t trust that damn little snit of a country Kyrgyzstan and keep Manas AB. We need a major air base in that part of the world and we also need to rid ourselves of Turkey. Incirlik AB is the only reason we play nice with Turkey.

I don’t think long term we could keep an Air base in Afghanistan like Bagram. I don’t think that country would permit it...


10 posted on 03/22/2017 5:25:35 AM PDT by Old Teufel Hunden
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To: Texas Fossil

What ISIS really is, is a Sunni-supremicist group determined to imposed strict Sunni fundamentalist Islam on its territory.

The non-Sunni’s, and the Kurds, do not want to be under Sunni-Arab control.

The Turks, being Sunni, want the ISIS members to survive and get away. The Kurds and Shiites want to kill the ISIS Sunnis. They will NOT play well together.


11 posted on 03/22/2017 5:30:46 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Big government is attractive to those who think that THEY will be in control of it.)
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To: Candor7

Has Erdgogan lost his Mind?>>>>>>>

He is a walking dead man. Only a matter of time.

I wager that the Russians will do him.


I’d wager they will be allies. Erodogan and Putin are totalitarian birds of a feather.


12 posted on 03/22/2017 6:05:05 AM PDT by lodi90
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To: Texas Fossil

For Reference....... see Laurence of Arabia

The Arabs conquered Arabia and Damascus, throwing the Ottoman Turks out. However, once conquered, tribal rivalry and British intrigue prevented the establishment of an Arab state and the Frogs and Brits took over creating the mess being contested this very day


13 posted on 03/22/2017 6:06:48 AM PDT by bert (K.E.; N.P.; GOPc;WASP .... Hillary is Ameritrash, pass it on)
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To: Old Teufel Hunden
After Iraq finally rids itself of ISIS, I wonder if they would be open to allowing us to create an airbase there. Move out of Incirlik and into northern Iraq.

Whatever base we get, will need to be able to be supplied by sea. If we set it up in northern Iraq, we will be subject to the willingness of Iraqis to allow supply convoys free access from the port.

We would be better off either having a base at a port in southern Iraq, or the coast of Syria. Maybe the Greek section of Cyprus (which would give Greece badly-needed cash, while pissing off the Turks).

14 posted on 03/22/2017 6:41:34 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Big government is attractive to those who think that THEY will be in control of it.)
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To: PapaBear3625
"Maybe the Greek section of Cyprus"

I don't think southern Iraq helps us in any way. We have Ali Al Salem in Kuwait and Al Udeid in Qattar that covers that portion of theater. I do like your idea of Cyprus. I'm pretty sure that UK has air assets there so there is a base. The question is, how big is it and can it be built up to suit our needs. Might be ideal and Greece is a NATO mainstay. Whatever their economic problems are, they aren't going rogue on us and as you say, it pisses Turkey off and in this day and age they need to be brought down a peg or two. Erdogan thinks he holds all the cards, he doesn't. We have options. I suppose Crete could be another option
15 posted on 03/22/2017 7:37:24 AM PDT by Old Teufel Hunden
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To: Texas Fossil
Has Erdgogan lost his Mind?

Erdy is an Islamicist with delusions of grandeur.

There are so many sides and factions that he can play most all of them against the middle, but he will run out of time, as the one policy that allowed most of this maneuverability was Obama's ME "Arab Spring" "Democracy" policy and support. The effects of this will wane, but it will take a while.

We likely will have to wait for Erdys NATO insider status to be eviscerated (hopefully before a disaster costs the US Military casualties), but Erdy will be cut off and eventually squashed.

Sadly, Erdy has polluted the Turkish Military and murdered it's patriot core which will retard or prevent the resurgence of Ataturk's plan to finally civilize Turkey.

16 posted on 03/22/2017 9:39:49 AM PDT by Navy Patriot (America returns to the Rule of Law)
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