Skip to comments.Is Syria Wagging the Russian Dog?
Posted on 06/20/2017 8:43:43 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX
Assad does not want to be pushed into any deal by his sponsors. Neither do the Iranians or Hizballah. But the Russians have repeatedly signaled that they want the Syrian problem resolved. The reasons for this are not hard to see. The Russians, even though their arms sales have spiraled up thanks to their successful show of force in Syria, are bleeding money. They can ill afford to stay in Syria for very long. Furthermore, there are Russian casualties and this information, though suppressed has a way of getting around in Russia and undermines Putin's popularity. There is also the risk of a big confrontation with the United States, something the Russians really want to avoid; and an equal risk that if the Russians lose control there can be provocations by Iran and Hizballah plus Syria against Israel that will trigger a general war that would wipe out the Syrian regime. That would be a terrible defeat for the Russians.
This is very tricky waters for the United States too. A big confrontation with the Russians is a very bad idea with unforeseeable and dangerous consequences. The U.S. interest in Syria is not at all strategic; ISIS, as much as it is a threat to stability in some countries, doesn't amount to much and in any case is slowly being defeated. Indeed, with far less military commitment, the U.S. is objectively doing far better against ISIS than against the Taliban in Afghanistan. The best policy for the United States is to stay the current course and destroy ISIS. At the same time, the U.S. is obliged to protect its allies, especially the Kurds (even strong-arming the Turks) and this is precisely the point of the shoot down this week.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
I would guess that Ivan wants his cake and to eat it too. They are probably finding that their cost of maintaining “influence” in the area is much worse than expected.
Time will tell.
Those Russians sure are dumb. They aren’t bright enough to see that the cost of maintaining influence in the area is going to be much worse than expected. A complete waste of money.
Well, yes, now that someone is taking them seriously. And cutting off their sources of support (Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Obama State Department...)
Look at the players with the most to lose. It is the Assad regime and the Kurds. They live in Syria, have the most political unity, military strength, and willpower.......and they live there, always have and always will.
The FSA and all the other minor players are joining and rejoining whichever side suits them today.
Russia isn’t going anywhere, they have a permanent air and naval base, that’s really all they want. They’ve already achieved their goals of keeping Assad in power, that’s not going to change.
Think about it, look at the restrained effort we are making against ISIS. Assad and the Russians have little to fear from us. The Russians will support the marxist element of the Kurds, even if they lose influence with the Turks.
Rojava will be a reality, covering every part of the former Syria east of the Euphrates River. Yes, I said the former Syria. It will be partitioned by common agreement between the US, Russia and the Kurds.
Iran is the only outside influence that is expanding. But Russia and Assad will keep them in line to a major degree. Iran will come to agreement with the Kurds about the natural gas pipelines they want to build to the Lebanese coast.
Trump is pulling a Reagan and I love it. He is making Russia’s expansionism cost prohibitive where they will eventually have to come to the table to make a deal. Trump just hasn’t told them yet what the deal is.
“The U.S. interest in Syria is not at all strategic”
He is missing it. Israel’s interest is a strategic issue as are Jordan, SA and Egypt.
Kurds are good allies. Both to US and to Russia. Both of them want to have someone like Kurds to deal with in the Middle East.
All Kurds are not alike. Syrian Kurds are the best of the bunch.
My concern is, will the USA stick with them after our goals are met? We have had a bad habit of abandoning people in the past, and Turkey is eager to expand into this area. Rojava is already a defacto state, and Syria will accept that with pressure from USA and Russia. What will be offered to appease Turkey?
The McCain wing of the GOPe, the State Dept and the Saudis still love their Jihadis in the FSA, even though they would stab us in the back at their first opportunity (and would probably be worse than Assad). They will try to block or minimize an SDF/Kurd victory, as that marginalizes the FSA and preserves the Assad regime.
Turkey is not going to be appeased. They would exterminate the Kurds just like they did the Armenians.
We have already had to block the Turks with our military, it is a very dicey situation. We are in agreement with the Russians to support the Kurds.
We need the Kurds as a stabilizing Islamic force.
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