Gillespie Eight Points Ahead Of Northam In Hampton University Poll

National Review ^ | 10/26/17 | Alexandra Desanctis

[leaymane]

A shocking new poll in the Virginia gubernatorial race puts Republican candidate Ed Gillespie a full eight points ahead of his Democratic opponent, current lieutenant governor Ralph Northam.

The Hampton University poll, out yesterday, surveyed 750 likely voters in the state and found that 41 percent support Gillespie while just 33 percent support Northam. Perhaps most surprisingly, the poll found that 27 percent of respondents remain undecided with Election Day less than two weeks away.

That last finding alone is enough to cast doubt on the results of this poll. The huge swing in Gillespie’s favor is also slightly questionable, at least judging from the fact that he has consistently lagged behind Northam in most major polls of the race. One poll out last week put Gillespie one point ahead of his Democratic rival, but the Hampton University poll’s eight-point gap is clearly an outlier.

Nevertheless, yesterday’s poll is noteworthy — regardless of how one interprets its figures — because it illustrates how fluid this gubernatorial race continues to be. Northam has held onto a significant lead in spending and in polling numbers, but with ten days left until polls close on the evening of November 7, Gillespie still has more than a fighting chance.

[leaymane]

Then again, why should be trust pollsters after the 2016 election?

[rightwingcrazy]

The voters in this poll are clearly failing to heed Fox’s generic ballot poll. How confusing.

[vette6387]

Alexandra is concerned?

[HokieMom]

We’re always skeptical of polls, of course. The earlier polls that had the Dem Northam ahead seemed to all be ‘registered voters’. This poll is ‘likely voters.’ In my experience, Republicans always poll higher when it’s ‘likely voters.’

[MountainWalker]

I’m in the soviet epicenter of VA and kind of believe it.

I thought McAuliffe would win the way he blanketed the airwaves with womyn-themed scaremongering, and he won a pretty narrow victory over Cuccinelli, a conservative firebrand.

Gillespie, for better or worse, is your quintessential generic Republican. He doesn’t scare NOVA leftists and has the GOP brass ($$$) firmly behind him. I get mail from him almost every day.

Polling has been pretty terrible in VA, but Trump, Cuccinelli and Gillespie (vs Warner) have been out-performing their polling numbers by 4-5 points on election day, albeit in losing efforts. If he’s ahead in some or most polls going into election day, he probably wins in a low-turnout affair.

[pfony1]

Let’s not get cocky.

Everyone knows that the Dems in VA still have some dirty tricks to play...

[KavMan]

I don't believe it!

If TRUMP can't win VA, Then I think no Republican can

[HokieMom]

The Dem's latest mailer:

Virginia GOP (RPV)‏Verified account @VA_GOP Oct 25

RPV Chairman @JohnWhitbeck: Northam Hate Mailer Goes Too Far #VAGov

— Can Ed Gillespie expect an apology from Ralph Northam on Nov. 8? —

– Even media have noted that the hit reeks of desperation-

RPV Chairman John Whitbeck issued the following statement:

“Ralph Northam’s latest mailer is the perfect example of what’s wrong with politics. Long after Ed Gillespie called out the barbaric, ignorant racists who invaded Charlottesville, Ralph Northam and his team are attempting to smear a good man with their reprehensible hate. In reality, Ed Gillespie was widely praised for his response to Charlottesville. Even reporters have noticed the reek of desperation from this attack.” “The Washington Post profile of Ralph should have given us a hint that this was coming:

‘He ran hard, even ugly. He lambasted his opponent for suggesting that mental illness was a punishment from God, a claim some said stretched Rerras’s words. The local newspaper found that other claims were exaggerations or just plain wrong. Northam later apologized for some tactics.’

“Can Ed Gillespie expect an apology call from Ralph Northam on November 8th?”

Background:

Roanoke Times Editorial Board:

“Gillespie himself has said and done exactly the right things here. Vote against Gillespie because of his views on tax policy, if you want, but don’t vote against him because of anything related to Charlottesville. He and Northam are on the same side here.” (Roanoke Times, 8/18/17)

RPV News

[cgbg]

I have been looking around the web for numbers on this, but it looks like turnout for an odd year governor’s race runs about twenty percent below a presidential year.

So let’s say there was 60% turnout for the Presidential race in 2016—then there would be 40% turnout for this year’s governor’s race.

That means one third of the people who voted in 2016 won’t be voting in 2017. One third. Think about that. They probably won’t admit it to pollsters either.

How can you get an accurate poll when as many as a third of the people you talk to start by lying to you as to whether they are going to vote.

[HokieMom]

RICHMOND, VA — President Donald Trump is giving his strongest endorsement to date of Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia’s closely watched race for governor.

In a series of tweets Thursday morning, Trump said Gillespie would improve Virginia’s economy, be “strong on crime” and “might even save our great statues/heritage.”

< snip >

“President Trump does not disclose military strategy – he’s made a point of that, not telling enemies what to expect,” said Gillespie. ” I think that’s a good approach to campaign strategy as well, and so the Democrats are going to have to wait and find out what our campaign strategy is in the last 12 days,” he added.

Gillespie has tried to excite Trump’s supporters in Virginia with hard-edged attack ads that have accused Democratic opponent Ralph Northam of being “weak” on gang crime by immigrants living in the country illegally. Gillespie’s also highlighted Northam’s support for removing Virginia’s numerous Confederate monuments.

WMAL

[Haiku Guy]

All polling more than a week or two before any election is BS.

The only purpose of such polling is to influence public opinion, and the numbers will be whatever the numbers need to be to have the desired effect.

But once the election gets close, pollsters have to protect themselves by reporting the actual numbers. That is why Gillespie is suddenly ahead.

The writing is on the wall. Gillespie is going to mop the floor with Northam in two weeks.

You know what... Guadagno is going to do the same thing in New Jersey.