Posted on 03/07/2018 7:47:39 AM PST by 11th_VA
On Tuesday, March 13th, voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District will go to the polls in what has become the highest profile special election since Doug Jones beat Roy Moore in December. Gravis Marketing has released their third and final poll in this race. The Likely voter poll, conducted March 1st-5th, shows the race continuing to tighten into a toss-up. The poll uses the same demographic model as the previous two Gravis Marketing polls of the race.
The State Representative Rick Saccone now leads former assistant U.S. Attorney Connor Lamb 45%-42%. The previous poll in February had Saccone up 45%-40%, and the first poll in January showed Saccone up 46%-34%. The race has undeniably tightened as Saccone’s support has been frozen in the 45%-46% range while Lamb’s support has climbed from 34% to 42%. While Saccone remains the favorite to win this race, there is a clear path to victory for Lamb. 13% of likely voters remain undecided.
Saccone is currently pulling 4% of Clinton voters while Lamb is taking 13.1% of Trump voters. Saccone, however, takes 16% of Democrat compared to Lamb’s 12.3% of Republicans. Lamb holds a 46%-27% lead over independent voters.
Donald Trump’s approval rating has taken a slight hit in the district over the three polls showing only a slight trend downward from 54%-39% in January to 49%-42% in the first week of March. Governor Wolf has remained stable and currently sits at 33%-47% in the district. Senator Casey’s numbers have also remained static and are currently at 33%-38%.
(Excerpt) Read more at orlando-politics.com ...
“Saccone, however, takes 16% of Democrat compared to Lamb’s 12.3% of Republicans”
How any true Republican can vote for a Democrat is beyond me.
You say that as if there were a perceivable difference...
Yeah, I don’t get that either. 8 years of an African Muslim crapping on American citizens and looting the treasury and they still vote Rat.
Lamb is a liberal masquerading as a Conservative or a Moderate Dem. He was a Marine JAG officer and then an Assistant US Attorney, so he has the Law and Order background to appeal to Conservative Dems. He’s also not made any major statements on Guns or any hot button issues.
But I'm willing to bet his last 10 million out-of-state campaign dollars that he is a willing slave to Pelosi, and EVERY one of his campaign ads claims he is a patriotic "Army veteran"
There will always be the Trump voter that voted for Trump because he sounded good to their ears.
The biggest problem of the public school system is its innate inability to teach conservatism and American history and values
Baris at PPD had Saccone -1 yesterday, but admitted this was based almost exclusively on the “enthusiasm” index and that it was very fluid.
Trump going in should help a lot.
All of these polling results are pre-tariff. Big issue with the steel workers in that district.
Trump will have a big night.... count on the local news to ignore it as much as possible. We need quick TV ads to back it up... or, we just may lose. Sadly, the RNC is as worthless as a tits on a boar hog.
He’s smart. He’s playing the Joe Manchin card.
Beg to differ with you. Within the defense industry right now it is really big deal.
I don’t doubt for a moment that steel is huge to the defense industry.
But this is not the Pittsburgh of my childhood where the numbers of guys working in the mills was numbered in the tens of thousands.
“Lamb holds a 46%-27% lead over independent voters”
That part of the polling is what bothers me most.
Are these really independent voters or Dems who refuse to state their party preference?
I’m not as much of a polling and stats wonk as a lot of Freepers are - but the 19 point lead is, to me, concerning.
I agree. But some Republicans will say it as well. I remember Karen Hughes (Bush lackey) saying in a forum that she was “personally pro-life”. In other words, pro-choice.
This is another seat slipping away.
Republicans have to stop supporting the push-polling designed to suppress their turnout.
Every Republican need to tell pollsters they will vote for the democrat. Once predictions start showing democrats will win 95% of the vote, as long as Republicans show up and vote in force, the polls will become invalidated and their purpose will be exposed.
Ignore the push polling and SHOW UP on election day!
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