Swing State Polls Look Good for Trump in 2020

RUSH: I mentioned the polls earlier about swing states and the reelection in 2020. Now, I’m gonna say again that polls to me are irrelevant this far out. They don’t really mean anything. They do, however, impact the way people feel. They can impact people’s moods, attitudes, and in some cases can cause certain people to act in certain ways. But terms having any real meaning, they don’t. A presidential poll today of Donald Trump and any of the other potential Democrats doesn’t mean anything, and let me prove it to you.

Here we are on the 8th of March 2018. Two years ago today there were polls being taken on whether Trump was gonna get the Republican nomination, and if he did, go on to win the presidency. I don’t remember what the polls in March of 2016 had to say. You know why I don’t? Because it didn’t matter. A poll in March of 2016 doesn’t matter. Nobody could remember. But the day that poll came out, I’ll guarantee you, the Drive-By Media made five hours of news about it, even though nobody can remember what the poll said — or pick any day.

You don’t start remembering polls until you get into November. With that caveat, understanding that there are people that live and die by polls, the Drive-By Media and the Democrat Party — the Washington establishment, actually, both parties — live and die by these things. I mean, they make book on them! But they live and die. The polling data is as big a news story any given day as practically anything else is. That’s how important it is to them. So in that regard, this stuff can have an impact.

Now, this is a SurveyMonkey poll. “Axios commissioned 10 SurveyMonkey polls to look at the upcoming Senate races [swing] states Trump won in 2016,” and these swing state polls show that Trump is in “solid shape to win a second term.” That flies in the face of every premise and every narrative that the media has put forth in the last year. As far as they’re concerned, Trump is finished.

As far as they’re concerned, the Democrats are gonna win the House in 2018 and then Trump’s gonna be impeached and Trump won’t even be running for reelection in 2020. So any poll about Trump is irrelevant. But when they see this, it is gonna have an effect on ’em. It’s gonna dispirit them, anger them, infuriate them, whatever. It says here, “While there is plenty of bad news for Senate Democrats, a potential loss of five to six seats, the good news for Trump is that his job approval rating in the key swing states he will need to win a second term is well above his national rating.”

That is worded very badly. While there is plenty of bad news for Senate Democrats implies that there’s something worse coming. Well, there isn’t. “While there is plenty of bad news for Senate Democrats, a potential loss of five to six seats, the good news for Trump is that his job approval rating in the key swing states he will need to win a second term, is well above his national rating.”

So it’s all good news for Trump, and it’s all bad news for the Democrats, not half and half. As of now, Trump’s national job approval rating sits at around 40%. There’s an outlier; Rasmussen has him 46 to 50, depending on the day. In Wisconsin, Trump’s approval rating in the SurveyMonkey poll, 48%. Michigan, 47. Ohio, 54%. Pennsylvania, 46%. Florida, 46%.

Those states above are the five Trump is gonna need to win a second term in 2020, and he’s kicking butt in them. He’s doing well in them. And these states — Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida — guess what? Guess what’s gonna be happening in those states? The tariffs on steel and aluminum are gonna benefit people that work in those states, in case you’re wondering why Trump is doing this tariffs business.

And then Axios: “Exclusive polls: Big warning signs for Senate Democrats.” Now, the Senate Democrats have 25 or 26 seats that are up for grabs in November. The Democrats have a lot of seats to defend. The Republicans I think the exact number six or eight. The Democrats have to defend 25 or 26. And in the SurveyMonkey poll, they are solidly losing in five or six of them already.

But when I saw this I got kind of a devilish little question. I said, “Why is anybody taking polls now? The Democrats are gonna win the House. The Democrats are gonna win the Senate. The media tells us every day. Why are we even bothering with polls? The election’s over! There was gonna be a gigantic, big, blue wave in Texas. Texas was gonna go blue after Tuesday night. The Democrats were gonna smoke everybody there. Trump’s gonna lose because the Republicans are gonna lose the House; Trump’s gonna be impeached. Why is anybody polling anything?

Well, they’re polling ’cause the Democrats and the media don’t really believe the drivel and the bilge that they are broadcasting. “Five Senate Democrats would lose to Republican candidates if the elections were held today and three have approval ratings under 50%.

“Why it matters: Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats in states that President Trump won in 2016. In six of those states, Trump’s approval is higher than 50%. These numbers underscore how hard it will be for Democrats to pick up the two seats needed to win the majority despite Trump’s troubles.” What Trump troubles? Where are Trump’s troubles? Trump’s troubles are in the media. What Trump troubles? How can you say in five of these six states his approval rating is over 50, the Democrats are gonna lose these five or six states if the election is today. What Trump troubles?

Gary Cohn resigning? That’s not a problem. Chaos in the White House? I don’t think there is any! If there were, why is it only a two-day story? Why was it a Thursday and Friday story, and why now have they moved — oh. Because the Make American Horny Again star has decided she can speak up rather than have to shut up. So now they’ve moved on to Trump and the babe again. They’re moving from issue to issue hoping one of them is gonna stick to get rid of Trump today, tonight, tomorrow, what have you.

Meanwhile, Trump’s not really in trouble. He hasn’t lost the support of his base. He’s moving on his agenda. As we saw today in the cabinet meeting premeeting, he’s having a grand time. Everybody with him is smiling and yukking it up. Trump’s in trouble in the media. Now, I’m not downplaying that. The media has a big impact on what people think, but in the real world, Trump is not wandering around aimlessly looking at pictures on the wall and asking for advice or any of this.

We’re living through some of the most manufactured crap that’s being passed along as news on a consistent, daily, 24-hour basis than I can ever remember. But this story, Axios is a Millennial left-wing website. “Big Warning Signs for Senate Democrats.” Wait a second. That just doesn’t fit with all of the narratives out there that Trump is gonna get smoked and the Republicans are gonna get smoked.

They’ve got 25 seats to defend, and the Republicans are in trouble? And the Democrats are running on what? They opposed everything that’s improving everybody’s lives economically. They opposed it all. They’re running around trying to connect dots on a scandal that did not happen. They are obsessed and deranged with raw hatred that’s infecting everybody on their side. And every prediction we’re getting about Democrat dominance is petering out.

They still haven’t won a special election for the House of Representatives, despite all these Trump troubles, despite all of the anger for Trump supposedly out there, despite all of the hatred, despite all of the buyer’s remorse, despite all the Americans who regret it and wish they had never voted for Trump and wish they could take it back and can’t wait to vote for Democrats to straighten America out again, despite all of that, Trump isn’t in trouble.

Oh, yeah, don’t misunderstand. It could be better, but, I mean, it’s a challenge every day, but Trump’s not in the kind of trouble they are portraying him to be in. Yeah, he’s in trouble because he’s got half the Congress and all of the media literally trying to destroy him. That does equal trouble. But that’s not the kind of trouble that they’re talking about.

How Trump will do in his re-election, will be based on whether he does something about our MASSIVE trade deficit.

If he does, he wins. BIG. He will win with Republicans, and quite a few Democrats also.

It will be huge.

But if he doesn’t, no amount of electioneering, will bring his voters out.

It is very simple. DO SOMETHING ABOUT OUR MASSIVE TRADE DEFICIT.

Now.

How Trump will do in his re-election, will be based on whether he does something about our MASSIVE trade deficit. If he does, he wins. BIG. He will win with Republicans, and quite a few Democrats also. It will be huge. But if he doesn’t, no amount of electioneering, will bring his voters out. It is very simple. DO SOMETHING ABOUT OUR MASSIVE TRADE DEFICIT. Now.

The issue of the trade deficit, in and of itself, is a non-campaign issue. The average American either doesn't know what it is, or doesn't care. It won't matter spit in the 2020 election.

Now, that doesn't mean that policies that are technically geared to reduce the trade deficit, are not campaign issues. These policies can be cited for increasing manufacturing jobs at homes, bring back jobs from abroad, etc. But the raw fact that we have a large trade deficit is immaterial to the vast majority of voters.

I wish you were right but until the trade deficit or the national debt interferes with the average Americans life we don’t care. Unfortunately, when debt does affect our lives it will be to late.

Cutting the budget deficit will help Trump but not cutting it won’t hurt him very much. The democrats will posture. The conservatives will whine but in the end if unemployment stays low, median income rises and we have our little trinkets the average voter will support the president, any president.

Agreed. I am an American, which makes me fortunate in many ways. One of the ways in which I am fortunate is that Donald J. Trump is my President (and not Hillary Clinton).

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