Posted on 05/11/2018 5:41:51 AM PDT by Mafe
This afternoon, Donald Trump made an announcement regarding the future of the Iran nuclear deal. Ahead of a self-imposed May 12th deadline, the President announced that he will not be waiving the sanctions. This decision places the United States in violation of the deal. But while it may not kill the JCPOA completely – European states and Iran could decide whether to keep some version of the deal going without the United States – it will start a period of profound uncertainty about the future of U.S-Iranian relations.
In some ways, this uncertainty is the most concerning thing about the current administration’s approach to the JCPOA. Trump’s speech included no realistic alternate strategy, other than “get a better deal.” His decision probably won’t be followed by public debate over whether conflict with Iran is desirable, a proposition that many in the administration seem to favor, but which most Americans would undoubtedly oppose.
Instead, by blowing up the nuclear deal today without offering any clear strategy or plan for an alternative, Donald Trump is opening Pandora’s Box, increasing the risks of escalation and bringing us gradually closer to conflict with Iran.
Initially, it probably won’t look that bad. Sanctions penalties will not kick in for 180 days. Iran has said it will take a few weeks to decide on its response, and discuss the issue with European signatories of the JCPOA. These countries may well try to keep some form of the deal running without the United States.
Yet the act of refusing to waive sanctions itself will deter companies from investing in Iran, and places European governments in a very difficult situation. There is little chance that Iran will agree to the additional sanctions and restrictions that the Trump administration is now proposing as unilateral amendments to the deal. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has given no indication of any diplomatic follow-on steps they will take with regard to Iran’s nuclear program.
Nor has the administration given any indication that they intend to have a broad public discussion on military action against Iran, though it is clear that many members of the administration - from new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to National Security Advisor John Bolton – favor such an approach. Instead, the steps that Trump has already taken, such as increasing troops in Syria, and his decision to withdraw from the deal generally raise the risk of escalation and conflict with Iran or Iranian proxies throughout the region.
Conflict between the US and Iran may not happen; we could get lucky. But Trump’s choice to violate the JCPOA today – and his choice to move to a more confrontational approach to Iran – raises that risk substantially. If US troops come into conflict with Iranian proxies inside Syria, broader conflict could easily result. Likewise, escalation is possible if US allies like Israel decide to take matters into their own hands and strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Put simply, Trump’s decision today doesn’t mean we’re about to have a public discussion like the one in 2003 that helped to set the US on a course to war in Iraq. Yet his administration’s choices and actions are nonetheless raising the likelihood of small-scale conflict that could easily spiral into something bigger. The President’s decision today may well end up counted among the worst blunders in recent U.S. foreign policy.
Except Iran never signed the deal and they violated first. A basic rule of contract law says the party first who breaches first has no right to demand compliance by the other party.
The American people seem completely comfortable with it.
I used to consider CATO a respectible outfit.
Now they’ve gone bat-sh*t crazy...
In 2009 the sanctions were working with the start of the “Green Revolution” in Iran. Obama ignored it and as a result it was crushed. Just like with Cuba, Obama threw the Mullahs of Iran a lifeline by creating this “Treaty” and infusing them with 150billion in cash. Trump’s plan is to destabilize the regime once again by reinstating the sanctions.
Face it! He was and is one of them.
Liberals - clueless since the dawn of time.
Giving the terrorist state of Iran $150+ billion dollars REALLY opened Pandora’s Box.
Of course, they’re too busy licking the sandals of the Kenyan Fraud to figure it out for themselves.
Nonsense written by an idiot.
It is not a “violation” of the deal. It is rescinding the agreement completely.
The mullas in iran woke up every day chanting “death to America.” They already hated us and will always hate us.
“ gradually closer to conflict with Iran.” if iran could attack us, they would. Has nothing to do with Trump.
Did they actually pay Emma Ashford for writing this trash?
How about we kill Iran instead?
Weren’t these turkeys - along with panicked Europeans and various media idiots - also saying awhile back that moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem would launch another war in the Middle East?
Instead we got a worldwide yawn.
This is simply more scaremongering. Iran is the real menace here.
Panodoras box was already open. Author is an idiot.
So do a lot of Iranians who are sick of the repressive theocracy’s economically and politically ruinous drive to develop long range WMD
Get over it CATO. Meanwhile, message to the Europeans: You can do business with us or with Iran but not both of us. Decide.
Cuckholed Always To Obama
“Panodoras box was already open. Author is an idiot.”
Yes. If Hitler had only given Neville Chamberlain another year or two, Chamberlin would have been writing articles like this to save the Munich “Agreement”.
As Dave Barry said in Chamberlin’s defense, “If you can’t trust a criminally insane, spittle-emitting dictator, who can you trust?”
I listened to Cato’s laughable analysis yesterday. Firstly, it was not a treaty. We are not in “violation” of it as they claimed. We rescinded it. We’re out. Buh bye.
Secondly, I don’t buy their alarmist claims about how this will make everything worse. I notice the Israelis are celebrating as are all the Arab states in the region.
In fact the ONLY ones who seem to be bothered by this other than CATO are the Obamabots who will blindly defend anything dear leader did, and greedy Yurps who are as always eager to pocket as much of the mullah’s blood money as possible.
Just because a guy is stupid enough to claim because he/they signed it, it was a “deal,” the other party refused to sign it and has publicly ridiculed it and us in their own country and why are you still referring it a “deal?”
Has the Cato Institute fallen so far that it considers a treaty not ratified by the Senate to be binding because the President at the time wishes it were so and calls it a "deal"? I thought they cared about the constitution.
“”European states and Iran could decide whether to keep some version of the deal going without the United States – it will start a period of profound uncertainty about the future of U.S-Iranian relations.””
Are these people auditioning for Improv? If so, they are not funny at all - just out and out loons! They sure were careful not to use the word “treaty”...
We worry all the time about our good relations with Iran, don’t we? Well, at least Cato does as does Carter and a handful of other democrats.
Sebastian Gorka said on Hannity last night that the US allies who are having tantrums now over Trump’s action will not stay on the outside for long - they WILL come around as what choice do they have?
That kind of policy shit is only legal in places like Kenya.
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