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Turkish crash has already begun, says economist
Ahval (Events) ^ | May 21 2018 | none stated

Posted on 05/22/2018 10:17:05 AM PDT by Texas Fossil

There has been little room for optimism in recent predictions on Turkey’s economy, but even among pessimistic company, one strategist’s comments on Turkey to Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung came off as bleak.

Turkey has already entered an economic crisis and can expect a “massive” fall in the value of the Turkish lira by the period after the June 24 elections “at the latest,” Turkish daily Cumhuriyet quoted economist Russell Napier as saying.

After years of steady decline, the lira’s fall has accelerated sharply in recent weeks, repeatedly hitting record lows against the dollar and leading losses in emerging markets on Monday.  

Turkey at this stage is no longer able to make payments on its approximately $400 billion debts, said Napier. Italian and French banks will bear the brunt of the crisis that this will trigger, and the European Union will likely be forced to step in to save them.

“A Turkish crash would trigger a global crisis,” Cumhuriyet quoted Napier as saying.

With a crisis looming, Turkish firms such as Doğuş Holdings and Turkish Telecom owner OTAŞ which owe large amounts in foreign currencies are already scrambling to restructure their debts, said Napier.

(Excerpt) Read more at ahvalnews2.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: crash; economic; elections; turkey; turkeyeconomy
Current exchange rate for US Dollar and Turkish Lira:

1 USD = 4.65179 Turkish Lira

(there was a time when Turkey's lira, was almost on par with the US dollar. Before Erdogan came to power.)

And Erdogan called for a "flash" election to be held on June 24th.

And he recently befriended/promoted the Commie Dictator running Venezuela.

What could possibly go wrong for Erdogan the Islamist?

1 posted on 05/22/2018 10:17:05 AM PDT by Texas Fossil
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To: Texas Fossil

They just need to keep centralizing and radicalizing.


2 posted on 05/22/2018 10:22:16 AM PDT by lurk
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To: lurk

Totalitarianism in all forms is EVIL.

Erdogan is one of the worst.


3 posted on 05/22/2018 10:22:56 AM PDT by Texas Fossil ((Texas is not where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind & Attitude!))
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To: Texas Fossil

Maybe Erdogan is cozying up to Maduro for tips on how to keep power, while crashing your economy.


4 posted on 05/22/2018 10:30:02 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: Texas Fossil

Ataturk’s legacy squandered.


5 posted on 05/22/2018 10:34:14 AM PDT by Nothingburger
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To: BeauBo

Anyone clinging to Maduro is like swimming toward a small tree limb in a whirlpool, leading to the abyss.

Increase the current flow to speed the process. The outcome is inevitable.


6 posted on 05/22/2018 10:36:40 AM PDT by Texas Fossil ((Texas is not where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind & Attitude!))
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To: Texas Fossil
Juicing economic growth via devaluation can work for a while. But eventually that runs out of steam. A decade ago, the lira was roughly at parity with the dollar:


7 posted on 05/22/2018 11:12:25 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (Journalism is about covering important stories. With a pillow, until they stop moving.)
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To: Zhang Fei
But even before Erdogan the Turkish lira had depreciated by orders of magnitude over 50 years, such that 6 zeroes needed to be taken off at the end of that period. Erdogan came to power because his predecessors were even worse economic managers. We talk about our political choices being between bad and worse. In Turkey, their choices are between unthinkable and "I don't want to talk about it".

First Turkish lira (1923–2005)

Both Livre Turque (in French) and تورك لیراسی (in Ottoman Turkish) phrases used on first-issue banknotes.

Historical banknotes from the second, third and fourth issues have portraits of İsmet İnönü on the obverse side. This change was done according to the 12 January 1926 issue of the official gazette[4][5] and canceled by the Democrat Party after World War II.

After periods of the lira pegged to the British pound and the French franc, a peg of 2.8 Turkish lira = 1 U.S. dollar was adopted in 1946 and maintained until 1960, when the currency was devalued to 9 Turkish lira = 1 dollar. From 1970, a series of hard, then soft pegs to the dollar operated as the value of the Turkish lira began to fall.

1966 – 1 U.S. dollar = 9 Turkish lira

1980 – 1 U.S. dollar = 90 Turkish lira

1988 – 1 U.S. dollar = 1,300 Turkish lira

1995 – 1 U.S. dollar = 45,000 Turkish lira

2001 – 1 U.S. dollar = 1,650,000 Turkish lira

The Guinness Book of Records ranked the Turkish lira as the world's least valuable currency in 1995 and 1996, and again from 1999 to 2004. The Turkish lira had slid in value so far that one original gold lira coin could be sold for 154,400,000 Turkish lira before the 2005 revaluation.

Second Turkish lira (2005–present)

In December 2003, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey passed a law that allowed for redenomination by the removal of six zeros from the Turkish lira, and the creation of a new currency. It was introduced on 1 January 2005, replacing the previous Turkish lira (which remained valid in circulation until the end of 2005) at a rate of 1 second Turkish lira (ISO 4217 code "TRY") = 1,000,000 first Turkish lira (ISO 4217 code "TRL"). With the revaluation of the Turkish lira, the Romanian leu (also revalued in July 2005) briefly became the world's least valued currency unit. At the same time, the Government introduced two new banknotes called TRY100 and TRY50.

In the transition period between January 2005 and December 2008, the second Turkish lira was officially called Yeni Türk Lirası (New Turkish lira).[6] It was officially abbreviated "YTL" and subdivided into 100 new kuruş (yeni kuruş). Starting in January 2009, the "new" marking was removed from the second Turkish lira, its official name becoming just "Turkish lira" again, abbreviated "TL". All obverse sides of current banknotes have portraits of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Until 2016, the same held for the reverse sides of all current coins, but in 2016 one-lira coins were issued to commemorate the "martyrs and veterans" of the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt, the reverse sides of some of which depict hands holding up a Turkish flag while others show in stylized form a collection of five-pointed stars topped by a Turkish flag.[7]


8 posted on 05/22/2018 11:22:41 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (Journalism is about covering important stories. With a pillow, until they stop moving.)
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To: Zhang Fei

That decade coincides with the ObamaNation. Beginning in 2009. Coincidence? I doubt it.

It also coincides with Erdogan the Islamist’s rise to power.


9 posted on 05/22/2018 11:23:37 AM PDT by Texas Fossil ((Texas is not where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind & Attitude!))
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To: Zhang Fei

Great historic perspective. Again, thank you.


10 posted on 05/22/2018 11:26:05 AM PDT by Texas Fossil ((Texas is not where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind & Attitude!))
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To: BeauBo

I don’t think either of them need help in creating a total train wreck.


11 posted on 05/22/2018 11:27:11 AM PDT by Texas Fossil ((Texas is not where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind & Attitude!))
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To: Texas Fossil

“Great historic perspective. Again, thank you.”


This is why everyone’s treating Erdogan with kid gloves. He couldn’t get elected dog catcher here. But in Turkey, Erdogan is as competent, hands-off and free market as the country’s gonna get. Anyone else could be a big disaster, just like Erdogan’s predecessors. Like a lot of other unfortunate countries, Turkey only gets to pick leaders off what is, in relative terms, the short bus. For Turkey, Erdogan is the smartest guy on that bus.


12 posted on 05/22/2018 11:43:33 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (Journalism is about covering important stories. With a pillow, until they stop moving.)
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To: Zhang Fei

If he is the “smartest” Turkey has a real problem.

I know he is not the smartest, but he may be the smartest public official not in jail.

It is a police state and they still practice extreme censorship. And ethnic cleansing with zero remorse.

And we in the West are to take his crap?

headshake.


13 posted on 05/22/2018 1:13:45 PM PDT by Texas Fossil ((Texas is not where you were born, but a Free State of Heart, Mind & Attitude!))
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